People fully grasped how impactful Chainlink and it's decentralized oracles are and it shows in its marketcap.
I think people are missing augur because they aren't understanding it's symbiotic relationship with Chainlink and the insurance possibilities. Augur has one of the biggest red herrings in crypto. People look at it as simple betting market for politics and sports. What they're missing is that Augur's biggest implementation will be insurance. Say I want to go long on bitcoin with 5x leverage and my liquidation price is $8000, with a closing date of 6/1 on the trade. Some would say shorting would be the best solution to hedge your bet but bitcoin could fall to $7900. You'll be liquidated and the short won't recoup nearly all of your gains. What you can do on augur is place a bet stating "Bitcoin will be below $8000 on 6/1 according to Chainlink's bitcoin price oracle" You've just insured your long margin and made a hedge that doesn't rely on bitcoin tanking like a short. Once people realize this they won't care about tBTC, renBTC or other ethereum project brining interoperability. Chainlink, Augur,and margin trading already brought bitcoin to ethereum.
augur is a great idea ahead of its time. Prediction markets are going to be big once ethereum is already integrated into everything, because it needs normal people using it, not just crypto speculators
Easton Taylor
The election and sports betting will make it jump.
Betting on games without a needed spread will attract anyone.
Dominic Rodriguez
bump
Kevin Cooper
As a professional sports gambler I find that unlikely. Even centralised sports betting exchanges are sadly dying, partly due to their own greed and stupidity and partly because the soft bookmaking model is a much more frictionless experience for losing gamblers.
Ayden Walker
wouldn't this case be bullish for augur?
Samuel Gutierrez
Not really. The added friction of using cryptocurrency and dealing with slower payouts due to having to confirm results via oracles make any decentralized crypto betting exchange a worse option than using a centralized fiat betting exchange, let alone a soft bookmaker which has no such complexity and gives you free bets and promotions. Also if you do manage to win, cashing out your crypto becomes a taxable event even in the UK where gambling winnings are not taxed.
I would love to be proven wrong because a fully global, highly liquid betting exchange would make my job a whole lot easier but based on the behaviour of gamblers in the UK (one of the most liberalised gambling markets on the planet), I can't see it happening. If Augur is going to succeed its way more likely imo that it does so based on more unique markets like you mentioned in the OP or by having markets on degenerate stuff that proper bookies won't touch like deathpools.
Incidently does Augur still have the stipulation that markets have to be phrased as a yes/no question because that is properly unhelpful from a sports perspective.
Eli Moore
> professional sports gambler no you aren't. but if you are, what's your yearly salary?
Jackson Martinez
Yes I am. I quit my job to do it full time last October and made ~£60k from then till March when the sports I bet on got coronaed. Yearly salary isn't even a question that would prove anything one way or another as it would be entirely dependent on starting bankroll size, betting volume, market limits, and model quality all of which will massively vary from gambler to gambler.
Adrian Cooper
I heard professionals have models that calculate weather and other odd factors. Are these in your models?
Luke Howard
I bet on badminton, snooker, and tennis and two of those are indoors so it doesn't really affect me. Almost every bit of received wisdom you hear about professional gamblers is bollocks though desu. Personally I would be very surprised if weather is a variable that improves a model's accuracy by a great deal, but every little helps and if it gives you a 0.5% boost in predictive ability and you have access to the data there's no reason not to include it.
Jayden Mitchell
> what is an average what's your yearly take home avg? this is why I know you're a larp.
Hudson Jackson
Should i buy more REP before v.2?
Blake Edwards
No stipulation on market wording. In fact you can make categorical markets and some very fancy markets by using the scalar payout type.
Colton Rogers
You haven't got a clue what you are on about, nor can you read apparently. I've only been doing it as my sole means of income since October, as I said, I made £60k between October and March. As a question to prove whether or not I'm a larp, its completely fucking useless. Sports gambling income = amount staked * betting yield, if my starting bankroll was twice as large I would have made twice as much, were it half as large, half as much, if my staking strategy was more aggressive I could have made more, if it was safer I could have made less, if my models yields were half the size I would have made half. Its a question with an answer that proves nothing.
pastebin.com/raw/85vymAEa - Here's every badminton bet I've made this year, unfortunately pastebin wordwrapped which screwed up the formatting a bit but all the fixtures, odds, and results are easily verifiable. Would take a hell of a larp to produce a record of thousands of bets right?
Ayden Cruz
Doesn’t betfair dominate the UK and have 10%+ fees? Augur should eventually float toward < 1% fees plus whatever gas costs end up being (probably a dollar for each fill) so it seems to me there is an edge there at least
