/tsg/ Tanker Stock General

Captain Hazelwood did nothing wrong edition

>Spot rates
twitter.com/TankersInt

>Highlighted links
forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/05/05/why-are-oil-prices-rebounding/#3756e2252de6
youtube.com/watch?v=rjgwjKiSXWo (good listen)

>Education
investopedia.com/articles/investing/012316/crude-tankers-business-transporting-oil.asp
lawexplores.com/the-tanker-market-current-structure-and-economic-analysis/
eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php (look at that V, lol)
mckinseyenergyinsights.com/resources/refinery-reference-desk/tanker/
euro-maritime.com/index.php/navigator?id=3080
youtube.com/watch?v=oWuyrlXI7nA

>Maritime/tanker/oil news
oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/
rystadenergy.com/newsevents/
lloydslist.maritimeintelligence.informa.com/
marinevesseltraffic.com/2013/02/tanker-track.html
freightwaves.com/american-shipper
rigzone.com/
crweber.com/ (no https)

>Oil futures
investing.com/commodities/

>Companies (not exhaustive or recommendations, alphabetical)
dhtankers.com/
euronav.com/
frontline.bm/
nat.bm/
scorpiotankers.com
sflcorp.com/
teekay.com/business/tankers/
tenn.gr/

>Past earnings reports (alphabetical)
ASC: EST EPS $0.14, actual $0.20.
DHT: EST EPS $0.54, actual is $0.44 (divvy of $0.35).
EURN: EST EPS $0.86, actual $1.05 (divvy of $1.10).
INSW: EST EPS $1.45, actual $1.49.
NNA: EST EPS $0.00, actual $0.94.
OSG: EST EPS N/A (Q4, 2019 was $0.12)., actual $0.28.
STNG: EST EPS $0.49, actual $0.82.

> Earnings report(s) expected this week
None

> Upcoming earnings reports calendar
NAT on 5/18, not specified
SFL on 5/19, pre-market
TNK on 5/21, pre-market
FRO on 5/29, pre-market
TNP on 6/4, pre-market

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these bags... they're too heavy... I can't hold them any longer...

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we goin green boys

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Inb4 Brandon's boss wakes him from his allotted 45 minute nap to get him back to "work".

>he does it for free

Sell covered calls to lighten the load

>giving it attention

Right now I'm holding DHT and FRO. I'm thinking that there's still a day or two to buy into a third and I'm looking at EURN and STNG. Which do you guys think would be the better buy?
Or should I not bother at this stage?

I d9n't see why not, we haven't seen any of these companies jump yet and eurn is already a very safe pick.

STNG looks undervalued.

why would you want to purposely baghold?

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COLD DEAD HANDS

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Its all good. DHT reported a huge win and the stock dumped. Uber reports a massive loss and the stock pumps. This is a clown world and I give up

Usually pushing them back is a bad thing, and everyone else has pushed earnings forward. But I for the life of me would not be able to understand how they would be the only tanker company to do poorly. That would make no sense. The biggest tanker company shouldn't be the only tanker company to do poorly, so I am going to assume perhaps they made a woopsie or something and need time to get correct data. It would just make no sense otherwise.

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It's OK, just means there's more time to research different angles and buy in.

Cool idea. Might be a fun QGIS project.
I think purpose is the most important because some companies like Navios do both oil & gas transport and dry goods.

Still trying to understand Navios' structure so far I've gotten:
>NM: Drybulk but own the rest of the companies
>NNA: Oil, gas, and chemicals
>NMM: Drybulk and containers
>NMCI: Containers
I don't get why they have NMM when it seems it could just split into NM and NMCI.

I wondered the same thing. Also wondered can they transfer assets between each other? Probably not, but I only kept NNA in my TCG index. My full list is this now:

>DHT
>FRO
>NAT
>INSW
>DSSI
>MMLP
>TNP
>EURN
>LPG
>ET
>STNG
>TNK
>NNA
>ASC
>SFL
>OSG

I'll post the updated indexes next

If any of you like fundamentals check this out:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1256362045261389828.html

good analysis on EURN

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Here are three more /TSG/ Tankerchad-16 indexes. You can copy paste them into thinnkorswim or whatever chart software you use. Added ASC SFL and OSG. Also normalized them all to $100, as of this morning so we can see how they drift apart. Pic is the "Big-money-weighted" index; note the TTM squeeze as of last friday (not seen on the other 2 indexes yet).

>equal-weighted tankerchad-16 index.
((DHT*1.488095)+(FRO*1.239157)+(NAT*1.953125)+(INSW*0.458295)+(DSSI*.878735)+(MMLP*4.149378)+(TNP*3.496503)+(EURN*0.956023)+(LPG*1.169591)+(ET*1.308901)+(STNG*0.514668)+(TNK*0.546448)+(NNA*1.862197)+(ASC*1.724137)+(SFL*0.246123)+(OSG*4.048583))/1.5298

>market cap-weighted. EURN, ET, and FRO hold the most weight.
((DHT*0.07568)+(FRO*0.11889)+(NAT*0.05967)+(INSW*0.04828)+(DSSI*0.03579)+(MMLP*0.00718)+(TNP*0.02057)+(EURN*0.16951)+(LPG*0.03502)+(ET*0.15801)+(STNG*0.08744)+(TNK*0.04672)+(NNA*0.00633)+(ASC*0.01493)+(SFL*0.09971)+(OSG*0.01626))/0.1037

>big-money-weighted, i.e. % held by institutions. INSW and ASC are driving this index.
((DHT*0.07744)+(FRO*0.03404)+(NAT*0.04476)+(INSW*0.12055)+(DSSI*0.08469)+(MMLP*0.02949)+(TNP*0.03993)+(EURN*0.04732)+(LPG*0.09595)+(ET*0.06478)+(STNG*0.06930)+(TNK*0.05829)+(NNA*0.01068)+(ASC*0.10993)+(SFL*0.03937)+(OSG*0.07341))/0.1033

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So one to considered is tk vs tnk. Since TK covers their whole fleet including gas and offshore.

I'm the opposite, holding STNG and EURN, but might move into DHT as well.

I'd go STNG if you want to swing trade it, EURN if you have a longer outlook. EURN feels safer with the big divvie too.

How would you implement GIS? Traffic routes? Not sure what the geospatial component you'd want to look at is.

I have DHT, but there is argument to choose others over them from a diversity standpoint. DHT only has vlcc's. If you want to go full vlcc then they are a good pick. Just something to keep in mind.

Dear /tanker/chads,

I am willing to suck my own dick and record it if $STNG does not rise above $21 by this Friday.

STNG compared to DSSI and ASC, their only real competitors, has a massive fleet size advantage and good exposure to the spot market concerning refined product. As refineries continue to rise in utilization, there will be a lot of clean fuel that needs to be stored. Nobody is flying planes and jet fuel usage is down something like 69% (lol). Nobody is going to be heating their house in the summer. If someone can name a use for distillate products besides cars going vroom then shut up. Also, there is still a massive surplus of crude oil with no where to go.

STNG hits both sectors with 42 LR2s, 12 LR1s, and 62 MRs. The best quality of these ships is their flexibility, since LR2s and LR1s can carry clean or dirty fuel. Whatever has the highest rates, STNG can work with it (besides MRs which are exclusively refined products.)

Some upsides:

>Biggest player in refined fuel sector

>Quote from 2019 slide: "Limited newbuilding orders extending the duration of lowest orderbook as a % of fleet since 2000"

For retards: no more boaty boaty = current boat = more profit!

>Quote from 2019 slide: "$1,000/day increase in rates will generate ~$50 million of incremental annualized cash flow"

LR1s are going for 150k a day. That's 6 times the spot rate in 2019. WAT THA FUK. STNG HAS FREE MONEY CHEAT CODE GLITCH 2020.

>STNG is trading at 60% of their net asset value. Again, what the fuck?

>STNG is working on deleveraging by paying off their debt, good for long term and hopefully won't bankrupt in a bad market.

>STNG suprised everyone with 46.63M net income and 0.82 EPS

>I'm betting that refined product tankers will reach all time highs very soon.

>Can still do 125M dollars with of buyback

>Delaying expensive scrubber instillation

Some downsides:
>Handymax = gay
>divvy is weak and gay
>tankers aren't going to do well forever (but you already know that)

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