>Past earnings reports (alphabetical) ASC: EST EPS $0.14, actual $0.20. DHT: EST EPS $0.54, actual is $0.44 (divvy of $0.35). EURN: EST EPS $0.86, actual $1.05 (divvy of $1.10). INSW: EST EPS $1.45, actual $1.49. NNA: EST EPS $0.00, actual $0.94. OSG: EST EPS N/A (Q4, 2019 was $0.12)., actual $0.28. STNG: EST EPS $0.49, actual $0.82.
> Upcoming earnings reports calendar NAT on 5/18, not specified SFL on 5/19, pre-market TNK on 5/21, pre-market FRO on 5/29, pre-market TNP on 6/4, pre-market
>Another important date May 19th, 2020 (you know why) Keep an eye on the 14th, 15th, and 18th of May too.
1) They are already cutting. It is possible to lower the production of an oil well without shutting it down.
2) Supply isn't only cut buy shutting down existing wells, in the mid-term it also goes down as new wells aren't drilled to replace depleted oil fields.
3) Private companies in the US and elsewhere aren't able to produce at a loss forever. Those who can't make profit at these prices will shut down their wells, there's no other way around it.
>The supply side of tankers is set for zero growth
Perhaps, but there's the possibility that oil demand will be lower than previous for a prolonged time which wouldn't mean zero-growth but negative growth. Many tankers wouldn't be needed anymore which would depress rates. It's also possible that oil demand returns to normal, in that case tankers would be in a very good state. I'm just saying that the market's pricing in the possibilty of a depression that will last years. Not buying you hedge fund conspiracy theories.
Wyatt Diaz
Comfy divvies and good returns will come to you, but only if you reply "HOLD ON SEA CAT" in this thread
1. It hasn't been cut nearly enough 2. That's true, we will not see investment in US wells for a while, however this is bullish for tankers, as they will transport imported oil if the US would be operating at a loss. 3. You're right, but this play is time sensitive with first, second, and third order effects. If the US wells are shut down, we'll have to use the tankers for imports.
Fuckin based >FROM >MY >COLD >DEAD >HANDS I don't care if I am stowed in divvy jones locker. I will reap that booty.
Christian Perry
How do 2 big institutions buy 3.4 million shares of FRO and it be down 2% today
Jackson Williams
Wolverine and citigroup's activity is particularly interesting. They're extremely bullish on this.
Alexander Roberts
I love these cute anime edits, they are so adorable.
Check STNG sells for more JP Morgan action, they sold all 88k put options they had. They have absolutely no confidence that shit is going down. I love this site, it fills me with such hope thank you for sharing. JP Morgan also bought 500k worth of DHT shares today as well!
If we are wrong in this we have the most powerful allies in the world wrong as well!
I was feeling down last thread, but it's not over yet boys. Rates have held up/stabilizing even as people try and convince you other wise.
To quote our swedish meat ball: >"THE STRONK TANKAR MARKET IS HERE! THIS IS THE STRONKEST MARKET I'VE SEEN IN YEARS JIM AND I'VE BEEN AROUND A LOOOOOOONG TIME!:
I get the point you're looking to make, and you have a point to an extent, but I think you're placing too much faith in the extent of the cuts currently being carried out across the world - most sources are vague on reduction numbers/when they come into force, and there's no real way to verify the cuts (Iraq, Russia and the Saudis are known to use accounting techniques to "cut" production). Most of the oil producers will gladly pump at a loss to ensure they retain market share, particularly given their economies are so reliant on oil.
It's an interesting point on US wells, but I don't believe Trump will let them shut down or go under, especially during a campaign year.
Zachary Thomas
Are you paying for premium?
Tyler Johnson
HOLD ON SEA CAT
Don't need the premium to view recent action, so nah.
How did you know they closed their puts position? I could only tell they closed it, not that it was puts.
Lincoln Powell
Negative growth would be good for tankers. After the super cycle of 2004-2008, there were so many ships that rates couldn't maintain high prices. In all reality, tanker fleets are going to, and should, decrease in size if the company mangers have any wits about them. You don't want more growth in tanker fleet size, but rates. Here's a realistic bullish scenario: Companies are using their older ships for floating storage, these ships are near the end of their life. They're taken of the market for an extended period of time due to time charted contracts. Once that contract expires, they'll be scrapped. This seems likely because of environmental regulations and an unwillingness to refit an older ship to compete with their newer ships (which would drive down spot rates). I struggle to believe a scenario where both oil demand is low and there is no need for floating storage. A major collapse in the global economy will have to occur. And if that is the case, well, i'll probably be hunting for food to just survive, not worrying about my tanker stocks, or any stocks for that matter. Oil is the life blood of this world, people want it even if they have to store it for an extended period of time.
John Foster
Sorry just saw the puts. How did you know it was 88k though?
Daniel Perez
under the options field it says 'put'. Pretty straightforward.
Kevin Walker
i don't trade options, but C looks like they opened up a straddle?
Cooper Gonzalez
Funny, I noticed that Wolverine kept cropping up everywhere too - based.
Other smaller institutionals sold, it's all very fluid at the moment - volatile game friend, just got to weather the storm.
That's encouraging! No problem user, we're all in the same boat.
Really? Says put for me under the options category.
Ah, that's fine. And that is because it shows their previous position. Previously they held 88k contracts. Now they hold currently 0. -100% change. They sold all their puts.
You know, in general I think the May 15th play might be a bait. Tons of calls opening up for tankers everywhere today, and now put selling. I think they are about to game the people who assumed they are gaming with them. Is this it maybe?
you guys got me curious and i went looking somebody put a shitload of 6/19 calls on sale today
Chase Barnes
Reasons tanker stocks are crashing to bankruptcy and how to profit
Try to stay focused on the fundamentals people (because I put the fun in fundamental get it?
1. Contango almost gone 2. Daily rates crashing to all time lows 3. Dumb money has already left and wont be back 4. Tanklets dont understand dividends 5. Tanklets dont understand that stocks value are based on future earnings 6. Brandon told them much of this and they didn't listen and already lost money; now mad at all Brandons 7.No catalyst for rising stock price 8. 2nd qtr earnings not good 9. 3rd qtr and beyond losses as far as you can see 10. Excess ships will be scrapped setting stage for a weak recovery in 2027 11. When the board bagholders capitulate we will get a 30% bounce 11.5 this will happen in 5 to 6 weeks and this general will disappear that's your sign 12. Then down to zero on bankruptcy by June 2021
I'm down 25% on my tanker shares across DHT EURN and STNG lads. Bought the top and kept averaging down until I ran out of money. Need a 33% gain to break even. My hands are wavering.
Quite literally no point in jumping ship before futures expiry - and beyond that tbqhwyf
Caleb Martinez
It's a hedged bullish position, but with a twist. C bought a large position unhedged, and on top of that got calls and puts in a proportion of 38% more calls than puts (this means in general that they have a 62% expected hit probability). Also, check the price: the puts cost about the same thing as the calls. Both cost about $9.6 per option. This means this was clearly not a straddle (where you buy at the same price and date, hence one side of the option must be a lot more expensive than the other since it will be itm).
Zachary Ross
Please all bagholders filter me now is not the time to sell
Ryan Richardson
My hands were weak once but I realized if I sold now it would be for nothing
Ryder Bell
Don't feel bad you are doing better than most. The average loss on this general is over 52%
Bentley Evans
I'm in it until dividends pay out but at this point they barely make a dent in my losses. And there's a fucking 15% Belgian tax on EURN and DHT dividends iirc. And with the way the market is acting it'll probably tank even more after payout. The little man just can't win against the big boy market makers
On sale? Or bought up? Weird, didn't someone buy them all up like a few days ago if I recall?
Considering the jumping in today, fully possible. Which might also mean the oil fiasco is going to go belly up potentially. I am so excited! Please be it!
Very based breakdown, thank you user. I am still an options dumbass mostly.
