>Past earnings reports (alphabetical) ASC: EST EPS $0.14, actual $0.20. DHT: EST EPS $0.54, actual is $0.44 (divvy of $0.35). EURN: EST EPS $0.86, actual $1.05 (divvy of $1.10). INSW: EST EPS $1.45, actual $1.49. NNA: EST EPS $0.00, actual $0.94. OSG: EST EPS N/A (Q4, 2019 was $0.12)., actual $0.28. STNG: EST EPS $0.49, actual $0.82.
> Earnings report(s) expected today NAT Q1 - not specified.
> Upcoming earnings reports calendar SFL on 5/19, pre-market FRO on 5/20, pre-market TNK on 5/21, pre-market TNP on 6/4, pre-market
>Another important date May 19th, 2020 (you know why) Keep an eye on the 14th, 15th, and 18th of May too.
They have not clarified exactly when it will be published.
Dylan Carter
How do you guys see the tanker market being affected, if the long-term reliability of a North American electric utility happens to go down?
For example, existing deferred maintenance on some (even nuclear!) plants leading to problems, shutdown of coal plants due to high operating costs, continued COVID-19 effects, or electrically volatile renewables with not enough energy storage capacity (batteries).
In California the electric utility is afraid to do anything due to liabilities, they did actually shut down power to customers due to wildfire risks that burned them previously.
Thank you based OP. This week is gonna be big, who knows what the sea will throw at us.
Leave it to NAT to be the only tanker that doesn't have their shit together for investors to know about their earnings release time and their conference call all the way until the day they are due. Truly the shittiest tanker, they better blow expectations out of the water to make up for their incompetence and weak fleet.
Bullish for tankers in that demand goes down meaning oil available for storage. I still believe that if demand decreases and supply goes lower companies will pick up production again and fuck any sense of balancing up, but supposing supply decreases and demand decreases...well, might get an early scrap at the end of the year. Which will preserve rates and increase stock. As well as poise them to capitalize even harder should another contango happen then.
That said, side note, even if electric utilities are having issues in generalI am bullish af on NEE.
On the brightside, commutes have never been faster!
Not something i've ever considered, what are your thoughts on the matter?
Choppy waters dear user, it's good we get NAT out of the way first, SFL/FRO/TNK/oil rollovers should see us through to a positive week. I'm personally loooooong on tankers, but I suspect there'll be lots of price action both ways.
On that note there are some folks that I've spoken with, who work for fairly big players as far as electric demand is concerned - they seem to be bearish on the grid and bullish on oil products. Some of them have increased their fuel capacity and all of them have topped off their diesel fuel reserves as expected. Some of those with synchronous prime generating capacity have been burning excess diesel in order to take advantage of the low prices vs grid power.
Tyler James
Interesting - I suppose it's a matter of timing, we want the imbalance to last for a while yet while the fleet approaches scrappage age, if the ships are scrapped and we then see a massive uptick in oil demand in the US, that will continue to drive memey rates.
Tyler Rogers
Yea, on the brightside since NAT is retail, if they crush expectations then retail may start the boost. But FRO should be immense. They have a strong history of surpassing expectations, and they are hedgie's favorite since the beginning of time. I am long too actually, least "long unless a peak comes that I just laugh at and can't resist cashing out on." Because these companies are just...great in value right now. Especially STNG, over my dead body will I sell its shares before it boosts. But I am steeled for some negative action too. I won't be surprised unless we actually go below lows. In which case....daddy EURN, stop talking about buybacks and just do them! Set an example!
That is a tad weird to be bullish on oil and bearish on electric. Question for oil is bullish mid-term or this contract? Huge difference. I think someone bullish for like, August, is probably right. Electrical I need to study on, I am too ignorant to make long comments or give analysis on. I just know I looked across them at one point and pointed out NEE as my fav if I decide to pick up a utility. That, and they supply me my electricity so...makes sense to invest in what you use.
Damn, that hurts. SCO taking HUGE beating right now, hurting my bottom line. But FRO got a good first uptick so green. I just want to stick around for a bit before sleeping to get a general idea of sentiment.
Couldn't agree more. I'm intending to stick around to see whether or not the stars actually are aligning for a new supercycle over the next few years - if they are, fuck me i'm lucky to have bought in near historic lows; if they aren't, by the time I find out i'll have collected enough divvies to move on pain free.
What will hurt private substation operators is fuckery with refining. They will stop burning prime power if the bulk diesel price starts rising, they are just doing it to recover the capital cost of having to install it for emergency use. And refineries have to sell off every distillation/cracking fraction, kerosene and gasoline are notoriously hard to sell right now. I'm curious to see where that goes since the oil product reserves could possibly dry up for a specific category. I don't know enough about the chemistry to really comment though.
Something that I'm curious about is if refineries start to sell diesel with higher sulfur content. Pretty much all the diesel on the market until now has been low sulfur. It shouldn't have much of an effect on prime/standby engines because they are not usually subject to air quality regulations (idk about "green" initiatives)
Adding on to what I've seen. The private substation operators don't usually buy enough on a consistent basis to warrant anything other than spot price, they usually get it through distributors. In my corner of the grid, nobody pre-covid would run their generators at anything above low power, most are idling or standby even if their equipment is rated for prime.
Robert White
Yea, the divvies is part of why I am very chill about just holding. They are secured for a year at least, kek. But I hope SCO will be fine, I went on margin for this and while it isn't financially painful (won't get a margin call if stuff falls, I am fine, fee low, this isn't an issue) I would love it if SCO pulls what it did the past 2 months so I can just erase a bulk of it. If I do, basically then one quarter's of divvies could effectively erase the rest and I am really on a golden ticket going forward in max comfy. It's a bit of a scheme, and if it works I am VERY happy. if it doesn't....well, my position is manageable still anyways.
How I am feeling. If it doesn't at least half, minimum, then I might as well throw out any books I have on economics because clearly we are making up shit as we go now. I did more than my due diligence, and can talk this current situation with the best of them right now. Honestly, this isn't even Fed, Fed can't touch this. If this was just Fed intervention I wouldn't care that much. This is like....economics 101 supply and demand. Printing money doesn't affect it, we got buyers, we got sellers, we got too much inventory, and little demand. It doesn't take a genius to figure this one out. So if the answer is wrong...well, no point in ever thinking with the market again now is there? Unless I can see a very convincing reason where I go "wow, makes sense, should of noticed/thought of that."
Yep, gonna sleep now for a while now. FRO is always the first one to move every day. Hedgie's favorite. Seems like hedgies like it today. EURN had a bit up too before back to 0. Good start.
Somebody is getting paid to bid this shit up and there are zero other possibilities.
Open interest is still at 55 million barrels. People are NOT getting out because the price is just going up up up up up.
June is going higher than July right now. As if there is either so much demand or so little supply that there is a rarity issue. But the reality is diametrically oppressed to that.
If you can charge a premium for something that is in so low demand and high supply that it's sitting in tankers for months (MONTHS, now) with no one willing to offload it, then... wtf else could you sell?
You should be able to sell ANYTHING no matter how few people want it or however many millions of it you've made.
I am so fucking angry that I live in this timeline.
Camden Thompson
God the anticipation is killing me
Nolan Hall
oil jumped 5% and is still rising above the 30$ mark. with so much up pressure its not impossible to make the gap to 41+$ in a few days...
pure clown if this happens since shits even more fucked since last month and the SA-tankers are just forming a line to drop their shit asap
Hudson Williams
OH GOD MY SCOOOOOO
Asher Phillips
Shorting oil while holding tankers is called being retarded
Are front month traders basically playing chicken at this point?
We're told they aren't that stupid, but SOMEBODY was that stupid last month.
Is it even possible that there is anybody trading oil futures at this point who DOESN'T know what could happen to them?
I think the only one who's even tried to explain this is Brandon and our resident retard shovels nothing but hopium.
Caleb Sanders
my goal for today was shorting the living daylight out of WTI Oil front month but dude...i dont understand whats going on here. the price cant be based on hopium alone. its a fucking commodity, not a stock.
we have too much of this shit.
Carson Cox
the meltdown has begun, gonna be a fun week watching your heads explode everyday as oil climbs and floating storage falls
Leo Diaz
That's why I say somebody is being paid to do it. Otherwise who in the hell would take this risk? Everyone else exited the fuck out of front month weeks ago.
Carter Clark
kP3ybQ6r
Brandon filter
Ryder Cooper
you oil storage memers sure like to drink the tanker kool aid huh?
