Since LINK has been ranging between $3.50-$3.90 for the past two weeks, I was wondering if the powers that be have started to value the LINK network more like an actual company, rather than just a speculative asset. I'm not that clever but this is what I've found.
According to reputation.link/chainlink in the past 7 days 11,000~ LINK have been spent on the network. Multiply by 52 and LINK at $3.80, and you get $2,173,600 per year in LINK actual being spent by the network, at current pace. Now with a marketcap of $1.3 Billion, this seems highly over valued. But according to defipulse.com/ LINK is securing $120 Million in value on Synthetix, $53 Million on AAVE, and a little amount on a few others. Additionally, LINK is the Oracle of choice for smart contract platforms Tezoz (1.9 Billion Marketcap) and even though it currently does almost nothing of value that seems important.
Once VRF finishes security audits and is launched on mainnet, I believe it will cause a huge surge in traffic as people start building useful Dapps around them (Gambling being the easiest example) and we'll see a non-speculative increase in price.
When do you think VFR will be living on the main network?
Cameron Martinez
It's not worth dog shit
Hunter Reyes
And that's a good thing. No one outside of Mumbai prices things in dog shit, Poodar.
Austin Phillips
oh shit right
SIr Gay said they're in the final stages of security review, so I can't imagine more than a few weeks. But of course there's no way to know until they announce it.
T H R E E Y E A R S
Noah Hernandez
Oh look, a thread that isn't shit. Get off of Zig Forums right now
Robert Davis
I was inspired by a generation of effort-posting anons, all I can hope to do is honor their memory.
What I've been thinking now is that the $1.3 Billion valuation given to LINK is actually the value for the fully diluted network. The true market makers probably have an idea of what amounts of LINK are reserved for what parties, and know that they will never hit the open market. Yes, LINK is being 'dumped' to incentivize and bootstrap the network, and Sergey certainly has enough tokens set aside for this purpose for years if need be. But when I think of the Chainlink network as a company worth $1.3 Billion, with yearly revenues of $2.3 Million and assets including 650 Million LINK ($2.47 Billion) it seems undervalued to me.
Good shit, no unexpected twists, loops, or even stretches of the imagination. Just a basic analysis of the simple facts, and put together in a way that considers their value as it relates to the project. I think is part of why we see this extended crabbing. It's hard to really say if it's under- or overvalued except for those who are intimately familiar with every little breadcrumb, speculation, and rumor. I do believe the breakout is going to be violent, and that the dumps will continue to supress things. We don't want moonbois or scare price swings because it can spoop the slower big boys of industry who are comfortable with the legacy system. As was said many times before the more agile and young companies who need to be nimble and find an edge will be the vanguard here. Once it's been proven and they've made a name for themselves, that is when the real money will start to move and we'll see the 4ir coming into bloom. I won't be surprised if we capture 5% or more of cryptospace's value. As long as I'm able to pull 80k after taxes from steaking I'm comfii and retired. With a 50k stack I should be able to reach this point.
Jeremiah Davis
Lol what will achieve with my 500 linkies
Eli Harris
It will take a year or two to make use of VRF, and the problem is in the hands of the man who holds 65% of the supply. This OP goes into the trash if all of a sudden another 100 million LINK hit the open market
Adrian Fisher
Yeah that's what I think too. Sergey / CZ are unironically painting the chart so that it doesn't look like ETH's. They have to balance (ir)rational exuberance with the painfully slow and steady roll out of the network. At the end of the day that's what is going to take us to $1000EOY, not partnerships or integrations.
As much as I hate Twitter, especially Crypto Twitter the breadcrumbs there now better than here. twitter.com/link_hound especially, this dude kills it. This is still the best place for discussion and memes though. But as you can see from this guys digging, you can see that new nodes and traffic are constantly being rolled out. Slow and steady it seems.
thank GOD op for a not-shit-thread thank you from the bottom of my heart god i miss these
Bentley Gutierrez
where would that leave a 5k linklet?
Nathan Gutierrez
I think that VRF is going to be used from day 1. You can immediately start making fully decentralized, anonymous P2P gambling, (Poker and lotteries being a prime examples)
Not to mention the necessity of VRF to all PoS systems.
Jack Kelly
so let's see if I have this right. Over the past year, the confusion and pain caused by the price action has caused a splinter faction to take root and grow. A schism that denies the coming singularity and even calls it heresy. These revisionists believe that all you need to make it is the canon of original breadcrumbs and any writings, even of the Link Saints, post Nov2017 are to be viewed with distrust.
Ethan Myers
Marine here, as much as a hate to admit it twitter does seem to have the best information now. Too many new fags chasing pumps like esh.
Alexander Bennett
I still come here everyday. rarely do can I get some good info here anymore but still worth it as I have been able to find some gems. Regarding Chainlink... its simple, Chainlink has evolved from biz.
Owen Morgan
Better than a nolinker. LINK won't make you a millionaire with 5k, sorry. But it's the closest thing to a sure bet in all of crypto.
Jace Lee
based on what exactly?? if chainlink is worth what xrp was during the last bull run a 5K link stack would be worth ~2M. Price predictions are dumb to make because there are too many variables and the interaction between these variables are too complicated to account for.
Samuel Green
Ok boomer, throw me out some price predictions then.
Checked. Based thread. If the charts are being painted to make-believe organic rollout, when do we start to see vertical movement? Fuck me in the ass with a green dildo already. 20th ISDA open law looks bullish
You're not going to sell the top and you will have to pay taxes. 5k link is not making it territory. It's "wow that was a really good idea, I now have a big leg up in life" territory.
Adrian Garcia
i thought VRF was already live on mainnet
Nolan Parker
It's a great start and you should pat yourself on the back here. I'd keep putting a bit in and get to whatever is comfortable but like guys with 80 and 100k say it's never enough. Everyone is kicking themselves for not putting in more when it was so obvious in hindsight. Even so, more is better than less. Just $25/wk is unlikely to be missed and future you will be very grateful for the sacrifice. Same idea here, and that's almost $20k worth at current prices. Staking is paid in link and we expect number go up. So if it's not enough to retire from and consider a check each month just let it ride. Just an estimate but the 250 link/yr you hold could be worth a good amount in a year or two. This is moonboi talk now but say we 20x again. The 250 you held brings in more link each year and additionally has gone from being worth 1k to about 20k usd. You con still make it. A bigger stack con be tricky in some ways. Like the guy who sold btc at $5 instead of waiting to sell for $100. He had a shitload and it cost him little so why not? Besides just collateral and hoarders, this idea of wrapped link has me interested because it further diminishes available link. Any link put on another blockchain means that much less 'real' link available to trade. It's not a joke when people talk about the available supply getting sucked up and driving the price. Daddy sirgay has a lot to kick things off but even that much can't last forever with the kind of demand we're speculating for the post smartcontract paradigm shift. It's coming like it or not. Sirgay is just considerate enough to give a courtesy lick and a bit of lube before tearing the industry a new one. I can see his reasoning and agree with it.
You're thinking along the right lines, but if you're going to categorize LINK spent in oracles run by 3rd party node operators as "revenues", then you should widen your definition of "network" to also include them.
If you do that, the valuation is (maybe only slightly) above 1.3B. It's 1.3B (LINK) + Fiews + CLC + Linkpool....
