AIRLINE STOCKS

Except that 1st quarter results are from January to end of March, and the 2nd quarter results will be from April to end of June, and with travel just barely starting back up going into June with a possible second shut down that could happen depending on if the virus starts spreading large scale again, the airlines numbers are going to be taking huge hits. Just look at how bad they were getting hit at the start of everything.

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>reopening
with middle seats vacant

now tell me aviation industry analysts is it better to ground and not pay for staff and fuel and marketing or to run with lower occupancy(revenues)?

I doubt there's going to be a second shutdown. if that's your mentality, everything will be fucked again, not just the airliners and you're better off just being in cash right now.

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democrats want a permanent shutdown
>the bull case is biden wins and they shift because it was all constructed to tank the economy in an election year

Trump already said if there is a 2nd wave, he will not shut down.

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Even if there isnt a second shut down most airlines have been making such little profit that they probably have been bleeding money just putting fuel in the planes, let alone paying for maintenance and workers. The earnings reports for the 2nd quarter are going to be terrible, and depending on how much they actually lost and if they cant get enough business in the coming months, these large airlines will be in trouble.

May not shut down the country, but they would most certainly shut down any travel to and from other countries along with regular people not wanting to fly and risk getting sick in a packed plane when they coule drive instead.

Earnings reports are definitely going to be terrible, but do you think the prices will go lower than where they were in March-April? i think analysts will have priced in much of this into their earnings estimates

the point of shutdowns (at all) was to prevent hospitals reaching capacity. I'm not certain what would happen then if they did, but people who refuse to shut down at all in a second wave might find, they don't get a choice. As - no fucker is willingly placing themselves in a flying sealed petri dish + terminal stress for hours on end, mid-pandemic

They may not go lower since the market seems to like to pretend that companies that are bleeding money arent in any trouble, but I would rather wait to see than to jump in and have the company declare bankruptcy. There are other companies that are down a lot during this time that dont have nearly as much of a risk as airlines right now.

Such as?

A second wave could be catastrophic... however, just look at how perceptions have shifted in the last month alone.

Remember when Trump first announced 100-200k dead, back on May 2? People lost their shit and the market flatlined for a few days. When they revised down to 60k it was received hugely positively.

Now we've not only smashed through 100k, but we are on pace to get to the 200k doomsday scenario — and nobody cares. Not only the markets, but all of the boomers I know are traveling to Vegas and barbecuing with their friends, etc.

They realized that they could either stay 100% safe and hide in their homes eating delivery food forever until they died, or they could say fuck it, see their children/grandkids, eat at restaurants, whatever.

I strongly believe airliners will be packed by this time next year. Nobody is going to delay seeing their family, or even taking a vacation, forever. Once a vaccine is confirmed, even if it takes until 2021, airline stocks will really take off.

Just make sure to sell at the top, before the next pandemic...

Some airlines (mostly smaller ones) will disappear and (most) others fill file for some Chapter 11. I wouldn't invest now in these stocks as the risks are high and the rewards not much higher than buying in after a few months of seeing how this plays out. This pump is not realistic anyway and we will see another correction in the market as a whole but also heaviliy in airlines and oil.

Restaurants, larger chains still have been able to profit off curbside and deliveries. CAKE for example is at $22, was trading above $40 before the virus. Red Robins is at $15, was over $30. Basically they were able to save money off only having to run kitchen staff while still being able to sell, and some even got away with not paying rent during this, saving even more money.

Oil is also down, and once demand returns to normal the stocks will rise back up.

Budweiser stock is super low right now, and everybody knows that will be right back up in no time with reopening. Basically cigarette and alcohol companies are not going to really go any where but up.

I bought stock in cosmetics as well due to hair salons and beauty places going to be reopening again. COTY is low at this time but has been rising a lot this week.

>no fucker is willingly placing themselves in a flying sealed petri dish + terminal stress for hours on end, mid-pandemic

I totally buy this as an argument for why airline stocks might collapse in a second wave in the fall, but not as a reason to not go long.

The vaccine that nearly every pharma company is killing themselves to make right now, that is going to be the single biggest news story of the decade, is (hopefully!) going to remove any concerns people have about air travel.

I guarantee you, the moment a few Instagram thots start posting vacation pics again, and boomers are posting about their trips to Cabo etc., there will be a huge resurgence in demand. The FOMO will be off the fucking charts and everybody will be hungry to statusmax with a post-quarantine vacation shot.

A vaccine is highly unlikely. Most pharma companies are just trying to do tests and studies so they can get extra money thrown at them.

Hello where are the proovs:DD

is this tanker stonks anonymous doing opium to quit cocaine

Just look at how the SARS outbreak started in 2002 and they still dont have a vaccine for it.

Because the "Open up America" message is being promoted by bots (probably from China or paid by large companies) and there will be another outbreak.

>Trump already said if there is a 2nd wave, he will not shut down.
Yes, because it will be up to the governors. "We gave guidance, didn't follow it, bad, bigly, we're not shutting down when there are virtually no cases in Alaska"

Anyway, don't buy airline stocks. Too risky for now. At least not JetBlue and smaller ones like that.

Nah, 2nd wave confirmed. Do you really think burgers are smart?