Here's your promised cute anime girl/tomboy OP edition. A tomboy a day keeps the Zig Forums away. Seriously though, keep /smg/ a stock market discussion thread even during market after hours.
Two questions for /smg/: 1) Do you disagree that we can expect millions of dead Americans from covid? 2) If you don't disagree, how do you estimate these millions of deaths will impact the stock market?
1.) not for a few years 2.) they will only affect the market if they bloom/there's a localized outbreak. You can watch iron prices and X vs steel that doesn't have mining operations.
Play iron with me then. It's the same trade as oil but not nearly as fucked imo. we might be late as shit, but give it a look. There's a few winners.
Yup tomorrow is looking good. Expect to pump all summer I plan on exiting sometime before the next round of earnings reports snagging puts and buying back in at the lows and riding it out through the holiday season
Angel Wright
NKLA
Ayden Powell
Meh, I mean I threw 11k at OTM SPY puts that went to 0. Would have printed if we gapped down instead of up memorial day weekend. Sure it was foolish, but It's risk vs reward. I mean it was foolish to pick up those AMZN puts that I sold for like a 350% return, but still made a return on the trade. Who gives a fuck what I think?
Nicholas James
companies that miss their earnings like clockwork don't seem very bullish to me
Oliver Myers
HTZ
Gabriel Jackson
Did u read the article tho?
Dominic Young
FUUUUUUUUCKing FOMO man God damn
Lincoln Morgan
>millions of economic drains dead it was bullish the entire time you low IQ redditor
Oliver Roberts
Reminder not to buy meme NASDAQ tech and e-commerce stocks with retarded P/E and you'll be fine.
Not a bad plan but what makes you so sure the market will dump on earnings? As I recall last earnings resulted in a slight pump, maybe I'm misremembering.
Logan Parker
TMDX. Have fun.
Easton Russell
no
Christopher Gutierrez
So basically if deaths are spread out over a few years there will be no shock and no obvious sell event, thus the markets can handle it? Couldn't it result in slowly eroding consumer confidence turning the market into a downwards crab?
Josiah Jackson
SOXL
Michael Long
MILK
Andrew Collins
Why are people saying this?
Oliver Harris
Noooooo I’m a genius with my heckin 5 figure account and just didn’t get lucky!!!
> the dead are drains Yeah that's something I've considered, but I'm not sure I buy it, given that 25% of dead are under 65 years old. Nevertheless, I am mostly worried about the impact of reduced consumer confidence, and I don't think people will say "well granny wasn't very productive anyway, I'll just cheer up and go to the cinema so I can kill gramps as well".
Blake Collins
GPS
Austin Foster
If you put around $1600 into it then you could sell off most of it until it's worth that again and take the rest as profits while you keep 1600 in in case it keeps going up
Brayden Scott
NBRV
Owen Cook
CAN YOU IMAGINE THINKING THIS MARKET IS GOING TO KEEP MOONING. CAN YOU FOR A SECOND COMPREHEND THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE IN THIS VERY THREAD WHO THINK THE SECOND WAVE OF CORONA RIDDEN RIOTERS SPREADING IT EN MASSE ISNT GOING TO DIP THE MEME MARKET
>inb4 butthurt bear
t. Big dick bill
Bentley Bell
even the most liberal estimates have SPY at 360 eoy
Grayson Rogers
Sell $20 puts and buy them back for pennies after the IV crush.
Asher Bell
I think the numbers will be disappointing in relation to the huge pump we’re all witnessing. And I believe a lot of others will be thinking along the same lines I am and looking for a catalyst/excuse to exit and take profit thus crashing the prices we’re seeing some. I don’t expect March lows but some pull back will happen. Could be 100% wrong and I’d likely buy 1 call for every 2 puts just to hedge a bit. We’ll see what happens between now and then but that’s what I’m cooking up
you're obvious a coastie, v shaped recovery and pent up demand are both memes that will be come reality. how can't you see this yet?
Nicholas Jones
>t. Big dick bill
God damn I want it to drop. I don't buy into FOMO and hype after getting burned more than once in the past, but it's still hurtful to watch. Could've made like a year's net income in the past couple months. Could've saved a year of my life. Fuck man.
Michael Hall
OAS
Dylan Nguyen
First Monday on the stock market. God bless you rascals. I’ll see if I can not fuck this up. I know one day is nothing.
Hello. I wouldn’t buy it unless you want to hold for a long time right now. New stock offering at $14 will probably make it dipperino. I still am confident they will be bought out by 2022 though.
Rioters are not the only ones who will die, have you seen this thing spread? Are you guys fucking kidding me? Even if the US is fine europe will go in to recession on the lack of tourism this year alone.
Please dont try to imply the US market is disconnected from the EU
the hit to revenues and tightening profit margins (which was happening anyway) is what we need to keep watching. >So basically if deaths are spread out over a few years there will be no shock and no obvious sell event, thus the markets can handle it? Anything that's local... lets say a mine or an excavation corp, asphalt/cement contractor, or something that can't grow beyond a region too easily can get smacked. Additionally, areas with worse health infrastructure will be slow on return to normal or might suffer having additional risks >Couldn't it result in slowly eroding consumer confidence You could label the slow return to revenues this, but it's just going to be generally slow long term. >turning the market into a downwards crab? it might just do it for fun.
I looked up all that i could and will average in over time. I'm up about 30% right now, but it could be co-movement. commodities in general are low (I continue excluding oil in the short term here). Any disruptions to countries that can't easily manage covid are gonna have to close shit, like the US did for food processing. The kicker is that they will be slower to get back on their feet than the west. If all of these companies need higher prices to break even, then odds are that shale (mid term without the fallout of the previous demand destruction and their debt loads), miners, and any other raw materials producer and transporter will be in a nice healthy pocket for a few years due to continued disruptions an upward pressures on commodity prices. I'm checking now to see if there are better hedges than DXD and UVXY.
v shaped recovery is already here, so I can see that. The question is if it will hold. Pent-up demand I really wonder about. Big companies are making huge investments into the idea that our society has fundamentally changed as a result of covid. Large sections of the workforce will work from home. I know several people with restaurants in places that have been reopened for over a month (other countries, so dem vs rep does not play in), they haven't seen and don't expect to see demand returning to normal for a good, long while. The only indication I have of pent-up demand is people claiming it exists in /smg/ and as far as I can tell, it could all be wishful thinking.
Lincoln Morgan
Tfw I have SPY 350 calls 7/6
Ryan Smith
Too late to buy IVR calls huh?
Nicholas Reed
M8 look I would much rather we were doing business as usual. Easy money on 3x leveraged NASDAQ etfs and selling SPY options. But anyone who thinks "that was it" is delusional. I also would have liked to make money in the bullrun, but its just imprudent to go in diversified into random stocks now. Especially holding over long periods.
Oliver Bell
no
Cooper Foster
I use it but I don't really think it is, but that's mostly just because I don't care for the meme reports they have. Instant deposits and being able to see the order book are pretty nice, and it's $5 so if you're working with enough money it's not too big a hit or anything
Gavin Parker
Have you been to the protests yourself? Most of the attendees are teens and young adults below 25. There are no boomers around, and the government wouldn't send in infected cops, would they?
Good reply, thanks a lot. I will indeed keep my eye on the revenues & profit margins. One more thought: could a big, local crash spook the market into a general crash?
