I don't want to fall into this Gambler's fallacy, but how is multiplying money so easy with crypto?
I was a normie who followed McAffee on Twitter because of his libertarian antics, and when he announced the Ghost token I got into crypto with $150 at first and then $200, so total of $350 and after making some literal gambles on these shitcoins, ~3 months later I have amassed ~$91k USD (Currently 80% in Tether). Even though I've been scammed so many times, if you lose you lose 50-100% (depends if you bought the top or if it was an exit scam), but when you win it's literally 10-50x everytime.
Aren't these favorable odds? What am I missing here?
yeah dude, it literally is that easy. button clicks.
wanna guess how easy it is for things to slip back in the opposite direction? (hint:even easier than making money)
Austin Robinson
Ghost was my first big win which really got me exited I almost did a 5x in 4 days and I took it out out of anxiety, turned out it was correct play. Then some people were shilling hex that was the biggest win for me and later STA. Even H3X which turned out to be a literal copy paste job made me like 6x.
Jaxson Torres
You caught the DeFi hype-train. It will come crashing down soon though...
Noah Taylor
De-Fi was recent though. I do admit I missed many of them but I bought DMG because it was shilled so hard, it did a decent 4x but 4x is pretty meh comparatively. Not seeing any de-fi coins do massive returns, I also bought COMP at 150 and it's now sitting at ~200, those gains aren't even worth mentioning.
Jordan Price
Well you did much better than me. Ghost is the first crypto I bought in a long time, and 3 months later I haven't made shit. It's like I'm cursed to always lose while you faggots just win.
Jeremiah Smith
Here's how I do it user, hope it helps you. When something is shilled for the first time, I buy a very small bag, like literally 2% of my gamble stack. If it continues to exist and getting shilled after a day, I increase my stack. Worked wonders for me so far. Size your initial bets and go big if it continues to exist. I have a background in marketing so I know people don't buy it on the first ad, I think there is a stat somewhere that sayd you need a person to see an ad around 7 times before they get engaged with it. I assume this works with crypto as well, the normies fomo in when they keep seeing a coin shilled for multiple days.
Jackson Bailey
how can the gambler’s fallacy and the law of large numbers both be true?
Alexander Martin
cool. are you in AMPL?
Anthony Adams
where do you see if coins are being shilled, biz, elsewhere?
Wyatt Brooks
One is looking at the set as a whole (Law of large numbers), one is looking at individual events within the set (Gambler's fallacy).
Eg. While the chances of your wife having 2 boys is 0.5*0.5=1/4 (whole set), if she's already had a boy, the second child still has the same 1/2 chance of being a boy (individual event).
Brody Martin
I spent an evening and joined telegram groups of all these Youtube Influencers and I follow those as well to get on top of these coins.
Luis Diaz
91k ? Mein gott sir , at this rate you will be billionaire soon ! You truly are crypto genius !
Justin Torres
Thanks for the info. What is your max allocation to a single coin? All in if it is shilled for long enough? What does it take for a coin to convince you to allocate your max allocation?
Jayden Russell
>I don't want to fall into this Gambler's fallacy, but how is multiplying money so easy with crypto?
Low liquidity, no entry barriers, both of these lead to high volatility. Never trust your portfolio value, if you hold shitcoins, you can't usually sell for that price. It's sorta like a musical chair kind of game.
Unless you hit the jackpot and buy things that end up getting huge traction (chainlink for instance).
Ghost is an absolute shitcoin, you were able to make money, most weren't. And next time you will be on the other side and lose a lot more than 100 bucks
Lucas Green
I used to put like 0.15-0.25 eth into the ones on Uniswap.
Carter Lopez
But even the HODLers of Ghost were able to make money during the second pump, so theoretically no one got burned.
If you combine the ESH price and add Ghost price to it when Ghost pumped again past $2, you still made profit. My friend who got burned after the whitepaper fiasco was able to get out on the top so I know this.
Jaxon Walker
I too am up massively on almost every buy, but aside from dumb luck I think it's because I'm happy taking 4x-5x profits on coins. I think it's moonboys who want to make 100x on every trade who end up losing
Of course, if there's been a telegram or discord which tends to find gems, please shill it to us
Jace Davis
where do you hear about coins? sources other than biz?
Jacob Thomas
>sources other than biz?
Generally by the time something's getting shilled on Zig Forums, the easy money's already been bought
Twitter's a minefield but I've had some luck
Eli Harris
>$350 to $91k why do you LARP? at best, you're downplaying your initial capital.
Asher Barnes
The reason so many people get fucked with gamblers fallacy is they don't understand, or even know, that their probability of winning is changing. Your probability is set with a coin flip, but it changes with each hand in poker. Your probability is constantly changing with investing.
The longer you hold any particular shitcoin, the lower your chances of making money. As long as you don't try to get the highest high or lowest low, your probability is pretty high.
I even made a small profit of the retarded meme coins like DGB and doge. Just sell when it goes up and move to a new shitcoin
Dominic Campbell
I'm at around $55k with an initial $2k, so I can believe it
Owen Miller
what you've done is my goal user (currently a student but in europe, so don't have debts but want to be comfy money wise for the future) Don't you think the chances are way lower now? I think you got in at an almost ideal timing, whereas I just started weeks ago and made some money with DMG and now MRDN (currently out of DMG, still in MRDN) and I don't if easy possibilities will be as available from here on, as the hype trains kind of slow down it seems
Just being in crypto is winning, don't stress on the could haves and just focus on the upcoming shit. I've never bought back something I sold and this user is completely correct, don't look for the 100x, that's a bait to make you a bagholder. The hype never dies down, if you're thinking that you're not putting much effort into finding them.
Julian Sullivan
gambler's fallacy is the idea that if you lose a bunch of times in a row, you're bound to win gambler's fallacy has nothing to do with asymmetrical opportunities, which is what crypto can be (and even the boomer stonk ponzi, in these days of 0 reserve requirement and fed buys)
Oliver Turner
well your gambling career is a set, isn’t it? realy the criticism in the gambler’s fallacy seems to be that playing -EV games will lose money. if the game is even odds or better the gambler’s fallacy becomes either true or pessimistic, doesn’t it?
Noah Clark
Fuck man I’m just now starting with a similar investment and if I made it to $55k I would be so tempted to cash out and eliminate all debt (with plenty left over). How do you guys determine when/if to cash out? I know the general idea is to hold (which I will) but I also would have a much better life with access to the gains IRL
Asher White
I have technically cashed out around 80% and kept it in a stable coin. I want to access my gains IRL too, but it depends on the country. According to the laws here, you will only get taxed on crypto if you cash it out to a bank. So, I'm keeping it for now and actively searching for ways to cash it out.
Actually there are a few sites like bitrefill that lets you buy giftcards, I've been buying stuff IRL with those for the time being and I curb that itch of never seeing the gains in my hands.
Aaron Smith
That's a 25x, not outside the realm of possibility when you're flipping shitcoins. Op is talking about a ~300x in a few months. The extra magnitude makes all the difference and probably means he is larping. Thing is on each of these coins there is a 10% chance it just craters instantly, all liquidity evaporates in a flash and you're stuck holding worthless bags that you can't even sell for 1 vit. So the likelihood of succesfully going 2x, 4x, 8x, 16x, etc in the shitcoin casino becomes exponentially less likely each time.
Cooper Williams
thanks user Would you say biz is a bad source of information when it comes to potential moonshots? currently, I'm mostly on biz, combined with Uniswap and specific token Telegram groups
Nolan Stewart
The first investment was Ghost and I went all-in on it as a normie, so technically that $350 was actually $1750 when I started as I took it out as soon as it 5x ed. Then, when I had the cashed out Eth from Ghost Hex and later STA both were pumping, so the chain of events were very favorable for me. So looking it from a traditional perspective is very misleading. Yes I got lucky with these trades, and after STA exit I never thought I'd see those gains again, but even now something similar shows up. Just yesterday SWAP came out where I did an easy 15x.
Jackson Torres
The catch is 10x returns only work for low liquidity shitcoins, once u reach a certain capital level, a 2x would become tough to achieve as it requires that much volume without dumping the price
Blake Adams
That's why I put 80% into a stablecoin so I can start with the low capital again.
