It is hard to believe that with the supply of LINK and the current total crypto MC that LINK has much further to increase without either some kind of unprecedented project announcement or a market-wide bull run somehow gearing up through a global pandemic. Even if they announce staking at this stage how much further can the price go in the short term?
LINK's current MC dominance is 1.1% or so. To get up to $20, just a 3x from here, either the entire total crypto MC must reach its ATH again with LINK holding that market dominance, or LINK would have to triple its MC from near ATH and enter the top 4 on its own.
Risk is getting very high.
I'd like to hear how people are thinking about this. We've had a pretty big increase aready. You can't compare this to ETH or NEO because it's a different time and LINK is already #8.
>either the entire total crypto MC must reach its ATH again with LINK holding that market dominance, or LINK would have to triple its MC from near ATH and enter the top 4 on its own. I remember when people said Link wouldn't enter the top 10 and the top 20 on its own. Of course we're going all the way at this point.
Justin Thompson
Smells like newfag. Which part of 1000eoy do you not understand
Noah Thomas
Implying the rest of the crypto market is relevant or market cap means anything. Or that any of the other crypto have any real world use
Parker Thomas
He is talking about billion supply vs 21 million, etc. not "use cases" you brainlets
Adam Mitchell
So that's it? What about when it doubles? What then? It doubles again?
This isn't what it was at 1bn MC. You are talking about increases of 3bn at a time here to double your investment value from here. I know this isn't the stock market and the economics aren't that simple (i.e. its just a function of supply and price and people usually don't realise that) but nonetheless it's a useful gauge for sheer quantum. How can you possibly be convinced LINK has the engine to move without an unprecedented, undeniable kind of project advancement that drives home the point that it's about price and MC is essentially irrelevant? You can't.
Mason Bell
You mean something like staking which would lock up 90%+ of the supply and remove them from the market? Something that has been stated by Sergey himself as coming this year?
Something that is quite literally on the horizon and could happen any day now? Something that only insiders would know about, and likely pump the price weeks before its official announcement? Yeah, I guess you're right. LINK would need something like that to continue its unprecedented run.
The part where this was said since 2017 and each year including last year it hasn't hit 1000 at the end of the year? You're clearly a nulinker.
Dylan Young
a staking announcement would pump it more, but staking release this year would be a big dump. Not enough traffic to justify this valuation, especially once staking is out
Camden Price
I don't buy that staking is an unprecedented event. I also don't buy this idea that there is the infrastructure to lock up a supply that fucking huge like you say it will or that the network has anywhere near the relevance you want it to to justify that.
This is risk. Your story is that it is going to be a revolution, no other option for big gains. That is the current story you have to believe if you continue to hold LINK.
Chase Murphy
she is getting FAT!!! women really do expire
Juan Price
Look at volume on defi platforms and what is locked, try to imagine it as a classic normie market and now try to assume how much the insurances for such a market would be worth, now you have the potential market cap of LINK.
As help, locked are currently around 2.3B
Blake Adams
I agree. I also feel we're building a house out of straw. Unless a second significant stock market crash is avoided, we will go down. We'll also likely go up at some point, but the timings are too far out at the moment. Additionally, BTC needs to decide what it wants to do which will ultimately determine the short term fate of alt coins / LINK...
James Thompson
Just sell your bags and sell us your trash pump and dump, stop being convoluted, twat.
Jeremiah Carter
We get it. You're coping hard because you didn't buy enough.
Dominic Reed
>I also don't buy this idea that there is the infrastructure to lock up a supply that fucking huge like you say it will or that the network has anywhere near the relevance you want it to to justify that. user see DeFi alone has 2.3B locked up. Almost every single DeFi platform uses LINK, or has plans to use LINK.
If we ONLY consider DeFi, it will need an equivalent collateral of LINK to safely supply data to the DeFi contracts they underpin. This is over $2B TODAY.
Yes, I am fairly confident that when staking goes live it will take almost the entirety of LINKs current marketcap to collateralize nodes to supply data in a trustless manner, where the nodes have as much to lose as the DeFi services they underpin.
That' was gibberish essentially. You sound like any other clown making up "market caps". Again, your position is fundamentally high risk because it is premised on nothing short of sweeping adoption and immediate relevance and use and possible revolution.
You obviously have no idea about supply and demand. Link isn't a value!, it only has intrinsic value because that is the way the world works. Link is more of a philosophy than anything else it is simply a token 1 LINK = 1 LINK. The dollar value is irrelevant because it is divisible by 20 decimal places. Come back here once you understand this token.
Isaac Lewis
>Risk is getting very high you mean to tell me you wernt buying in at the ATH for risk 3 years ago before swift, oracle, google, IBM, microsoft, china, and 500 other companies were connected to it?
lol Guess its just a wortless json parser and defi is just Indian scammers and chinese gamblers, amirite
Owen Bell
You still don't understand? Link WILL be what triggers the next bullrun
Bentley Garcia
>The risk is high >There is a chance this isn't going to 1k like we think, or even 100 Yes, any investment is a risk. I am willing to take the risk.
Jonathan Brown
I'm trying to generate actual conversation in this dead ocean of fucking low iq reddit-tier useless hysteria and backpatting and cringey linkmarine shit and all the rest of it.
And how does that translate to price when it has tons of supply left to facilitate all this?
Okay I see now you are just trying to raise alarms so you can get spoonfed. I don't mind. The project price will soar as it gets adopted. As smart contracts go mainstream and corporations large and small begin using them, more supply will be locked up in nodes to feed this effort. The more adoption that occurs, the higher the price.
If low adoption occurs, the price won't go very high. If no adoption occurs, the price will tank in the future and the project will die. Nothing is guaranteed, we are all taking a risk. What price you sell at determines how much risk you are willing to take. Some people have enough LINK to make millions at 10 dollars. These people will likely sell. Some require 100, others 1000.
And then many won't be selling huge amounts, just their staking gains regardless of what the price of LINK is. No one can tell you exactly what it going to happen and most people who try to are nulinkers or retards who just fell for the memes and worship Chainlink like a religion. Those who think there isn't any risk anymore tend to be the biggest retards.
Jordan Watson
>And how does that translate to price when it has tons of supply left to facilitate all this? What specifically do you mean by this? Are you talking about the other 650M held by sergey and co?
Those will be slowly introduced into the ecosystem as it grows. But if you are talking about the current circulating supply, DeFi alone requires almost all of it to be locked up.
Read that again. DeFi ALONE requires almost the entire marketcap of LINK to be locked up right now. Today. This isn't even considering every new project that will exist, every project thats still in development committed to using chainlink. This isn't even considering Oracle, BSN, Baseline Protocol
This is quite literally only considering active projects live on mainnet right now today as of July 13th, 2020
It's not spoonfeeding. I do my own research every day and I'm well aware of the hypothetical roadmap for value increases from here. What I'm saying now is chips are down. From here there isn't much further to move without things actually working, actually being used, or a massive bullrun starting up at a time that isn't conducive to one, and I think a lot of people are stating for micro TA reasons or whatever that now is somehow not when you should be looking seriously at taking profits. I'm saying LINK practically has to perform in a way that no other crypto ever really has from here for people to make bank from here because everyone else here is shitposting. Proper sweeping legit adoption and relevance or whatever
no, you dont realize that ANYONE who buys this is aware there is 1billion tokens. even no linkers know this. nobody goes "hurr durr only 350mil because CMC says so". yes the team has the ability to wipe out the order books across all exchanges if they want to. same can be said for most large companies on stock exchanges. maybe youd feel better holding XRP where they had to sue their developers to prevent them dumping kek
William Roberts
Let me further put things into perspective for you There are over 200 projects committed to using chainlink.
Of those over 200 projects, there are maybe 10 that are live right now with actual consumers. This leaves quite literally hundreds of projects that are not yet functioning with any reasonable userbase.
I agree with this post. I also never expected LINK's price to get this high from speculation. I'm not selling because I am gambling on LINK performing and the price action soaring because of that. If it doesn't get adopted then everyone currently holding gets fucked and everyone who sold at this ATH was right.
What else is there to discuss here?
Josiah Wood
How do you people not know by noe the real mcap is like 35% of that, cmon guys
LINK is for defi services an insurance. It guarantees them, that their smart contracts can be regarded as secure and tamper proof, at least on the price feed site. In addition, it gives them as well legal protection against allegation of manipulation, again just on the price feed site, which, beside the sc itself is the only thing that counts.
So again back to how I try to assess one aspect of LINKs "real" MC. Look at how much capital is held by defi custodians, try to make an educated guess how much insuring that kind of capital would take, which at 2.3B would be at least 2.3B, put trading volume, demand by retailers and publicity on top of that, and a fair MC for LINK would be imo about 6B
Noah Baker
>What I'm saying now is chips are down. From here there isn't much further to move without things actually working, actually being used, or a massive bullrun Everyone said this at mainnet release too. Cards are on the table, LINK can't go higher than $1 without staking live, etc. Didn't stop it then, no reason it'll stop it now.
Xavier Watson
>To get up to $20, just a 3x from here, either the entire total crypto MC must reach its ATH again with LINK holding that market dominance, or LINK would have to triple its MC from near ATH and enter the top 4 on its own.
Both are going to happen. We are days away from BTC breaking out of a multi year bull pennant and link will continue to gain market cap against BTC.
Lucas Foster
XRP was 130bn+ market cap last run, Link can easily overturn it
Christian Edwards
sorry next time I'll make a thread about trips setting the price by eom and another asking who's comfy. But I'm the asshole for larping an actual conversation.
Parker Gonzalez
>Everyone said this at mainnet release too. Cards are on the table, LINK can't go higher than $1 without staking live, etc. Didn't stop it then, no reason it'll stop it now. Personally I hope it doesn't go higher until real world adoption occurs. I don't like speculation pumps. They are fugazy.
