PNK Prediction Market

Can anyone explain how this works? Is it better to hold the token and stake it, or should I just bet on the price going up? This basically says that if the token reaches 10 cents I will quadruple my money right? Is there a catch?

omen.eth.link/#/0xb485c94df8c5a61b7d0751434a4628bd9e244108

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The catch is that it has to reach that price for you to not lose your money

each share is worth 1 Dai, 105 = 400 shares, you redeem them when the market closes
except you can just bet no and win that way, nice bait

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Yea, I tried my best. I got a based ID color too.

It would be possible to go long PNK here by voting Yes and then buying up PNK to push the price up and win.

This has nothing to do with the kleros tokens in your possession. You're betting Dai on what you think the kleros price will be. The return on each answer is dependent on how many people vote for that answer. EX if it's 1% yes 99% no, then you'll get a much larger return on the yes vs the no bet.

the funny part is that there's a delay between price action and prediction market reaction so someone with enough capital could simply pump the price and continue to feed into the market as the share price fluctuates
>This has nothing to do with the kleros tokens in your possession
but ultimately it's a cost-benefit comparison

The prize isnt that big yet tho, so I guess it would be worth pumping that much money into it at the moment. Unless you we're planning to buy a lot of PNK anyway

Fuck, I'm too tired for these typos. It wouldnt* be worth pumping that much money in unless you were* already planning to buy a lot

Fucking

>The prize isnt that big yet tho, so I guess it would be worth pumping that much money into it at the moment. Unless you we're planning to buy a lot of PNK anyway
yeah however the value in the prediction market will rise proportionally to market sentiment and as time goes on so it's a feedback loop
plus as you said if you are going to buy or sell anyway there's opportunity there potentially
people will bet more when the price becomes more volatile - right now everyone is betting "no" because nobody thinks a token that already 2x'd can 2x again but apparently they didn't see what happened with link
also you can arbitrage since prediction sentiment might not match the token market sentiment

>Fuck, I'm too tired for these typos. It wouldnt* be worth pumping that much money in unless you were* already planning to buy a lot
it's mainly about upside - a $25 position is like $100 payout which is significantly more than $25 worth of PNK. this also ironically uses PNK tokens for market resolution which is the reason the token is worth anything.

Do I lose all my money if it doesn't reach $0.10?

no you can sell your shares at any time

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Thanks

50%

it's like 66% or something retarded
you have to remember for the box with 2 gold balls, if you pick gold ball A you can draw gold ball B, or if you first pick gold ball B you can draw gold ball A later
that's if i remember right
t. brainlet

>it's like 66% or something retarded
big brain detected

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It's much simpler than that.

There's 3 boxes, 2 of which have gold balls

-> 66% chance to be in a box with a gold ball

-> Odds of drawing a second gold ball is 33% because only 1/3 of the boxes have 2 gold balls inthem

3 boxes, G/G, G/S, S/S

you pick a gold ball up; the chance the next one is gold is 50%. you can pick up a silver ball, or a gold ball. either outcome only possible with G/G or G/S box. S/S eliminated due to wording of the question.

its 50% wtf

wrong

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We are both wrong. This is called "Bertrand's Box paradox" and the answer is 2/3

>We are both wrong. This is called "Bertrand's Box paradox" and the answer is 2/3
correct

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>that IQ puzzle
don't lay this on me user i'm about to pass the fuck out

CAAB?

>CAAB?
depends on how dark it is and how dark you are honestly

I live far up north so it never gets dark and Im also the opposite

AAAB

ACAB

BAKA

cbdb