Out of curiosity I went through 50 wallets that received the largest STA refunds. Here are the stats I gathered:
REFUND TOTAL: 1.89M STA TOP 50 TOTAL: 1.60M STA >top 50 wallets received 85% of the whole refund
WALLETS HELD: 38 >roughly 1/4 of the top 50 sold a portion or the whole refund
AMOUNT SOLD: 155k STA >top 50 wallets sold 8.2% of the total refund
TOP 10 TOTAL: 956k STA >top 10 wallets received almost exactly 50% of the total refund TOP 10 SOLD: 0 >they know
Judging by my very unscientific research I would say it's VERY likely that the Balancer refund will cause a significant pump as most of the largest poolers have decided to hold the refunds. Also many of those who sold already own a large amount of STA.
Get the feeling that the only significant money to be made on this coin happened if you got in at the beginning of the month. Unless it gets listed but then again you could say that about any coin