And will continue to do so until the release of arbitrum:
Since the board is a flood of new retards and pajeets here's an actual content post. Newfags if you want this place to keep being the gem it used to be stop fucking posting price motion threads and start posting substantive shit.
For the last few years link has outperformed the market, but this last dump it hasn't- why? Has something increased supply? Well, in fact it has, look here: ethgasstation.info/ Eth gas prices are high, and chainlink node operators have to pay lots of gas in order to keep the price ref data on which defi lives, alive. Look at the leaderboard, it's currently costing a million a month in eth to keep link running.
Did this catch the link team by surprise? Well, no. 1. They explicitly set aside link for node operation incentivization in the whitepaper, which is what is keeping node operators solvent in all of this 2. They have recently increased node payouts (even when Link price has been near all time highs) in order to keep their node operators in the green twitter.com/link_hound/status/1301900116081737729
What happens when the inflow of new link into the system increases? For that answer lets look at exchange flows of link: viewbase.com/coin/chainlink
Chainlink continues to fly out of exchange wallets and into personal/institutional ones Nothing has changed about the project, the buy pressure has, if anything, ticked up a touch, but the new supply (of which a portion has to be sold for eth in order to keep nodes running) is depressing prices.
Want to know when to buy? You can literally look at the contracts in the above link and see how much link they're paying out. Once that number starts coming down you'll likely see the previous correlation of decreasing exchange supply and increasing price come back with a vengeance.
The catch is the moment arbitrum goes live, everything changes.
The SC team isn't dumb, if they're rolling something out as big as arbitrum they will only have it live on nodes they know and for use cases they can control initially. Perfect examples would be individualized payments of nodes (effectively batching them to pay once an hour, day, week or whatever) and running the aggregation portions of the contract with the only gas costs being the final print to the eth chain per aggregation.
The moment that happens everything changes: 1. Link becomes a default passive income instrument (without access to paid APIs and or price data) 2. The SC team will roll back link payments to where they started, or even less, as node operators will have far less to pay in eth 3. Overall gas costs will drop in keeping with removing a high gas user from the top ten and the downstream effect of this on the demand for eth and the resultant link/eth ratio will be sharp
If you have a big brain and big balls sell link into eth now and watch the contracts like a hawk. The moment the arbitrum contracts start showing up on mainnet move entirely back into link.
Realize that smart people will start to understand the above in a week or two and will start blunting these swings by taking positions like i've outlined. You may not even have until the arbitrum contracts go live on mainnet.
Catch this knife correctly and you'll be set for life. Sit on the sidelines and feel regret. Your choice user.
Leo Cooper
I don't think you'll have luck getting a logical discussion thread going on a day like to day, but good on ya for trying. Most here will not make it, but you will. People seem to gloss over Arbitrum, but its a game changer.
Nathan Cox
I will continue to hold chainlink because I am gay and hold chainlink
thank you for your analysis
Levi Cook
because it's a scam fuck off
Jonathan Nelson
>arbitrum gonna be watching like a hawk for longer than most are willing bud, weary eyes already.
Gabriel Roberts
high quality thread OP, thanks, how will we know when Arbitrum contracts start showing up on mainnet?
Aiden White
>it's currently costing a million a month in eth to keep link running. imagine thinking a PnD that's underperforming because of a mere $1M per month is a good investment. That's your entire thesis. The demand is so weak one million a month is enough. Good luck cashing out any significant sums.
Chase Lopez
When does arbitrum go live?
Xavier Davis
err he’s talking about gas costs bro
Nathan Morales
yes, he's entire thesis is that link sold for gas costs is enough to overwhelm demand. Essentially, his own reasoning led him to a conclusion that link is a PnD with next to zero market support, but in his absolute delusion he ignored that.
Lincoln Sanders
Wait, so you're saying Arbitrum will replace Ethereum and make it cheaper to run Chainlink nodes?
Hudson Nguyen
Yes.
Angel Gomez
cope this would mean arbitrum would replace eth as node operators are providing their services to eth based smart contracts ( thus paid in link )
if defacto smart contract platform is arbitrum then node operators would be paid in wrapped link
arbitrum is just a dime in a dozen "eth-killer"
Anthony Cox
everything is underperforming faggot
Chase Richardson
Thank you for this thread based OP, viewbase is a new website for me
>Catch this knife correctly and you'll be set for life. Sit on the sidelines and feel regret. Your choice user. WTF are you trying to say ? I will only make it when i flip LINK-ETH-LINK ? Like why ? Is link gonna crash below 1 dollar or what ? What would be regret of just holding link, i didnt bought at 15 dollars ... i bought at 15 cents...
Leo Sanchez
err no arbitrum will correct that problem
Christian Harris
Biz does fucking deserve to die
Jason Fisher
He's saying if you want to maximize your gains, if you hold a shit ton of link of course you'll be fine already. He's extending an olive branch to nulinkers, the whole purpose of this thread.
Nathaniel Johnson
(you) let it happen
Noah Russell
I hold 4k LINK and will not sell neither you nigger OP suck my dick you Jew
Ethan King
So basically, buy DMG?
Christopher Evans
I agree with you, Zig Forums is getting overwhelmed by seething fudders but this was a reasonable question. If you have a stack you're content with, is there really a reason other than trying to increase your stack to flip/swing and risk missing the rocket?
Christopher Garcia
I'm pretty sure his whole purpose is to help nulinkers, who aren't going to be content with the double or triple digit stacks they can likely only afford right now. Obviously anyone with at least 1k is probably going to just sit comfortably, though you also have the option to try to act on his advice as well.
Brody Jones
I am a suicide Stinker happily swinging around, the goal is always to get back to a suicide stack and use the winnings for leverage trading, or buying back if a swing went bad
Jaxson Rogers
I didn’t understand anything you said, but it feels bullish
Gavin Davis
Absolutely based and redpilled. I'm too lazy and small balled to move link to eth though, so DIDNT READ. NOT SELLING.
Henry Young
Its insanely bullish. 1k eoy isn't happening, but triple digits within the next 6 months is definitely a possibility. Next year though...
Jaxon Smith
It basically means there will never be neet nodes and that the future will be permissioned specific blockchains. Crypto is maturing from its lolbertarian phase into its true capitalist phase. So yes extremely bullish as LINK might be the only dlt related protocol that exists today that survives the cleansing
Robert Phillips
>Catch this knife correctly and you'll be set for life. Sit on the sidelines and feel regret. Your choice user. What do I do if I already have 10k LINK? I don't want to buy anymore but I am not selling either.
Leo Carter
>a few million in gas is bearish enough that paid "node ooerators" have to market sell to cover costs
So that 700 ETH "fud" was truly damaging then huh? Funny how much vapor is in your multinillion dollar mcap if a bunch of retards paying for gas nuke your value in half from ATH.
