There's been a few guys shilling the dollar milkshake theory here recently. You should read Alasdair Mcleod's latest article
"The error common to both is to misunderstand the underlying subjectivity of money. Money takes its value from the marginal value placed upon it relative to owning goods. If money is widely regarded as sound, an economising man is happy to hold a reserve of it, only exchanging it for goods and services when they are needed. This is the most important quality of metallic money, to which people have always returned when government money fails.
A further benefit, which state currencies lack, is that gold and silver as money are accepted everywhere, having the same values in New York, London, and Mumbai. With the exception of cross-border trade, investment, and perhaps longer-term strategic considerations, government currencies are generally restricted to national boundaries. Paper currencies are therefore vulnerable to changes in demand in the foreign exchanges in a way gold and silver are not; if the foreigners don’t like your currency, they will reduce their exposure by selling it, irrespective of fundamental considerations."
He talks about how the Wiemar inflation preceded it's monetary inflation, because foreigners (and nationals) front ran the Reichsbank into the forex market to protect themselves. So even if there is "deflationary pressures" in the US, you could see a collapse in forex (and domestic purchasing power) at the same time.
yeah not sure why milkshake is even a thing, probably just a catchy name mixed with people not really understanding it.
Its just a more complicated way of saying the USD is the best, worst, option and it will probably fall last.
Which is likely true, but it certainly is not a unique or attributable theory, some guy just put a catchy name on a very basic concept.
Brody Nelson
god I fucking love the griffin hnng
Hudson Cook
Fireweed Zinc is unstoppable. You buy it and it goes up. Then you sell some and regret it the next day. Then you buy some more and it goes up again.
Kevin Morgan
Checked. That's been my feeling this whole time. Stupid imo. People that espouse it seem to usually not know their shit.
Isaiah Jenkins
The real stupid part is that the only people that believe it consider themselves "traders" not "investors" and are trying to take a bet with a payout structure of +25% or -100%
Robert Young
same, im glad i got it from a dealer for the gold version so i avoided alot of the premium. didnt expect prem to blow up like it did now that set is done. i have the 16 lion, unicorn, dragon and griffon. waiting on greyhound shipment. then 5 to go
Premium is indeed ridiculous. I only have a couple of the 1/4 oz gold ones - might grab the greyhound one in that now desu
mirin' your collection
Logan Richardson
thanks user, hope the rest are easier (and cheaper lol)
Gabriel Morris
I don't disagree with McLeod. I like him a lot. However, nothing he says changes my short term deflationary expectations. Yes, on a long enough timeline, all fiats will die. Gold and silver are in a class of their own in terms of long term wealth preservation and exchange.
My problem is that he and others are using the concept that all people die to make the case that you personally are going to die tomorrow. Because all people die and you are getting older...you had better act to get prepared because you will probably die tomorrow. I'm sorry, but that's an oversimplification. A lot of the things that people in pmg are expecting requires other things to happen first and there is no automatic mechanism in place to make sure that it is exactly where we are going. There are human interventions necessary to create the inflationary scenario and currently, all the pieces aren't on the board right now for that. What is on the board right now is deflation.
If you guys want intelligent discussion of how the Fed works, you should at least give this video a watch.
interesting chart so far today, no ten am smack down, 10 am stepping up instead. Shits going to be exciting one way or another until at least December.
Leo Murphy
There's only one problem with the refined theories of the dollar milkshake theorists. And that's that every single prediction which they have made so far has been completely wrong. The dollar is down 10% and gold is up 30% since they were saying that the former would soar and the latter would crash. They stick their heads above the parapet every time the dollar bounces a little, then are forced to scurry away once it resumes its fall.
Jackson Long
No, his point is that if the forex market decides to front run the fed, it doesn't matter what the actual quantity of money is. If people think that the fed is going to hyperinflate the monetary base, regardless of what they actually will do, the dollar crashes and prices rise.
If you want intelligent discussion of how to make bets, you should at least give this video a watch
I'm not a dollar milkshake theory guy. The dollar milkshake is a theory about one specific way that the flow of capital will trigger dominoes falling such a way that the dollar is the last standing fiat currency before it too fails. That may be the case, but I'm not a proponent of it. It's a possibility among others. But just because I think the dollar is going higher in the short term and we will have deflation in the short term doesn't mean I hold to that or any other specific theory about how things will ultimately play out. I just can't ignore 1) the massive deflationary forces we have in the wild right now and 2) that the way the Fed has been described as creating inflation is wrong and the Fed currently is pushing a string unable to actually create inflation to counter the deflation.
Connor Harris
I grabbed 20oz of 2020 silver eagles yesterday for 27 each with no tax(lcs).
Caleb Russell
I will give it a watch. Thanks.
Gavin Hill
just grabbed a monster box of queens beast greyhounds. cant wait to get them
Tyler Johnson
damn...a monster box of greyhounds...nice pick - how much in average per oz? the beast series is quiet overpriced at my dealers.
Good timing and good picks
Cooper Sullivan
The XIV video is much more to the point if you are short on time
Bought 1,000 ounces on the way down... Coulda saved a few grand or gotten an extra bit but I'm not too butthurt, got in on some miners at least and scrap is still flowing so life is good.
Jason Johnson
i have 2 other sets of the silvers that need boxes too, dont even know if you can get the one in the pic anymore
Brody Young
You'll never catch an exact bottom, with that attitude you've already made it
Sorry, I am not grasping the specific relevance. Are you trying to say that dollar forecasts don't take into account volatile events that will cause it to crash? I think that a major crash is possible, but I also see most central banks in the world working to make sure that doesn't happen. The Eurodollar system really gets discounted on pmg and people think that the world can just decide they don't like dollars anymore and dump them. It's just not that simple.
Imagine you have some device like from Saw, where it's a locked collar around your neck and attached to that is an explosive device. On that device is a vending machine intake that accepts dollar bills. Imagine that every day you had to feed one US dollar into that machine or else the device would explode. It doesn't accept Euros or Yuan...only US dollars. It doesn't really matter how much you may like the dollar or wish for it to collapse. You are still stuck with needing to get at least one dollar every day via some means in order to keep your head from exploding. This is the world's capital markets in the Eurodollar system. There is such an enormous amount of international debt denominated in US dollars that no matter how much a country may dislike the Eurodollar system, they still need to chase a finite amount of dollars in order to service debts.
Now, this won't continue forever, but in the short and mid term, it's unavoidable. The US denominated debt could be unwound, but it would have to be done over time. If there is a quick unwinding, then capital markets will explode. A world war could also be a trigger for this. But outside of a war, central banks are not going to willingly trigger a quick unwinding because it will blow everyone up. It's mutual destruction.
