Lit Hopium

Think of it this way... for Lit to go to 100m, it's a 50x. This can be achieved in a weekend with savvy marketing and a good exchange. That says nothing of the underlying fundamentals of Lition.

If you are up for a read, in my opinion, the current environment can be summarized accurately like so:

Acquisition Uncertainty- Loads of confusion around the acquisition by Tomochain. Everything from ascertaining the execution of previously expressed token burns to guaranteeing the Energie use case going live are thrown into question. This sort of news would have launched Lition in price in the traditional markets, but crypto is a different ballgame- our investment relies upon utility of Lit, not ownership of the acquired entity. More on this later…

Team Bandwidth/Communication/Incentives- It was quite obvious Richard didn't have the bandwidth to focus on Lition Blockchain. He was clearly unfamiliar with the technical development occuring and this was outsourced. He didn't prioritize development, and it showed with outsourced devs. His communication style is confusing and more suited for traditional business (quarterly reports) than the intense care required to foster a crypto startup at this stage. They relied on a SINGLE community manager to hold the doors on the community and field tough development questions. Finally, the question of "Alignment" with the LIT token holders, both from the head honchos at Lition energy, as well as the new team, has been thrown up in the air. Will they dump the token? Does Richard even care anymore?

Price Action- We have NO liquidity or volume. Charting Lition is futile, it's too small. A 100,000 token sell can drop the price multiple cents on the coin. We've been like a yoyo between the high teens and mid-single digits since July depending on the fanboy news/FUD of the week.

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Tokenomics/Business Prospects- This is the crux of it all. Since many of us read the whitepaper, we were excited about the way that the Lition token could absorb value through real enterprise usage and tx volume. With launch of main-net, we were expecting Lition Energie to take Lition Block into the black in terms of revenue and provide the token with it's first injection of real value. The acquisition has obfuscated this and Docmosis (the lined up 2nd case) while at the same time appearing to hint at larger dealings afoot for the future. Most of us who have been here for 2 years don't want to hear something big is just around the corner, we were ready for value now. Plus, what's to say that Tomochain (the company) who now owns all the proprietary assets of Lition Block, wouldn't cannibalize the tech at the expense of the token holders, or even "reboot" the token via a new token sale? Either way, it threw a sincere wrench into the momentum we had after the successful main-net launch. Finally, the presence of the “Litsentbymistake” function uncovered by a community member raises a severe technical concern. The network cannot have a backdoor of any kind.
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So what's the outlook?

We know a significant amount from the communication in the aftermath of the acquisition to gain much clarity in the above points, while some things remain unknown. In any case, I think we have enough to at least place an informed binary bet on Lition in our direction of choice, by either HODLING/further investing, or selling, at this very moment. Here is why, in order of each point above:

Acquisition Uncertainty- As Lition holders, we will not see any signed documentation regarding the acquisition. We are not entitled to this, nor should we expect it. We should demand an updated whitepaper with roadmap and tokenomics, and Tomo will likely provide this after the “onboarding period” that will take place the remainder of 2020. This is reasonable. They are attempting to adapt an existing infrastructure for use with the biggest clients possible (Central Banks) in less than three months. While tokens likely won’t be burned, and instead subject to a 6 month lockup, to me, this is a good thing. While it slightly dilutes my personal ownership of the Lition token supply, it brings Tomochain even further into alignment with us holders. They own the entirety of the ecosystem tokens, and therefore have every incentive to build them into the long-term value of said tokens to generate staking revenue. The Lition token is much more valuable held than sold if the network sees adoption. With ~37 nodes live and an entire mainnet/infrastructure built, it would be a tremendous waste of resources to scrap the network. It’s safe to say, both from the new team’s communications and common business acumen, that Tomochain wants to see their acquired entity, and the tokens that go with it, thrive. It’s complimentary in every way to their Layer 1 blockchain, and can provide great future synergy.

i had a stack of this from biz shilling consistency, however, I can't hold something that drops closer towards zero by the day, at least I know I can make money in ETH and other solid mid and low caps

Team Bandwidth/Communication/Incentives- Tomochain has over 30 developers and now an entire division dedicated to Lition. In addition, they have multiple community managers and significantly more experience in the blockchain space, having launched a successful Layer 1. This is a tremendous improvement in my current experience with the new team, as the old communication left much to be desired. Regarding incentives, while this is uncertain until we have updated tokenomics, see my earlier point regarding token value. Tomo now holds over 40 million Lition tokens- Imagine, with active network clients, the power of say, 20 million of these staking at a price of $5-10 dollars/token? This possibility alone puts the entity in alignment and extends to the financial incentives of every employee at Tomo (and their new advisors- when Richard talks about not holding Lit tokens anymore, I would not be surprised if he is not a minority holder in Tomochain (the entity) or has received a revenue-based bonus structure from them to adopt Lition usage- just speculation, but both of these reward schemes are common in traditional enterprise acquisitions). Finally, because Lition is a complimentary, not competitive, product with Tomochain (Layer 1) it stands that the entire ecosystem can benefit from bringing in clients that require the layer 2 customization Lition blockchain provides.

Price Action- We aren’t going to see significant positive price action until the usecases are live and/or we are on a mainstream exchange. A marketing campaign or rebrand could help significantly in tandem with either event. Just be aware, in the event that this does happen, the token price could launch extremely rapidly from the few million cap area up to around 50-100 million in the blink of an eye. This happens frequently with smallcaps facing much uncertainty. I’ve experienced this happen exactly with Quant, Ocean Protocol, and Unibright. This is why it is important to weigh factors and take positions now.

Tokenomics/Business Prospects- The only shift in tokenomics is that the burn has been replaced with a 6 month lockup: Given that the Tomochain entity is well-funded with high-profile government partnerships, I see the selling of unlocked tokens after 6 months by the team as unlikely, unless we are already in live revenue generation mode.

The Lition Blockchain was built specifically for Lition energy. I don’t see how abandoning this now makes any sense for Lition Energie (and certainly wouldn’t make sense for Richard in regards to his new compensation scheme if it is anything like I speculated above). The new team is doing their due diligence in onboarding- which is the responsible thing to do when they will be responsible for eneterprise blockchains affecting potentially millions of customers. This applies to Lition Energy and Docmosis. In addition, we’ve seen Tomochain has an in with the Vietnamese government. Given the new alignment towards CDBCs, this has to be bullish- the only reason it is being looked upon with disdain is our expectations were for LIVE use-cases at this point. This is a fair criticism, given the failures of releasing main-net according to original schedule, and the ambiguous communication that has accompanied it.

We eagerly await commentary on the Litsentbymistake function: if nothing else, this needs to be removed to truly realize usage outside of simply Lition Energy. I’m confident it will be if it wants to be taken seriously. As far as abuse of this function and potential reimbursement, I wouldn’t expect anything. These things happen with tiny projects- chalk them up to bad actors, growing pains, etc. but if fixed, long term outlook is solid. We will have two live revenue generators (Lition Energy which is ever growing, and docmosis) that should put the enterprise into the black, as well as exposure to huge new potential customers in governments and enterprises in the far east.
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In conclusion- We are far away from the original whitepaper projections around transaction volume, and are certainly not “SAP’s” coin. The technical ambiguity of the “litsentbymistake” function is concerning, but fits in line with my analysis of Lition Blockchain not receiving the attention it deserved by Richard and other high-powered folks at Lition Energy. We are, however, poised to be in a unique role in the crypto space- generating real revenue that is captured in the Lition token through secured use-cases, with a healthy network of nodes, and potnentially enormous prospective partners.

This is a binary bet- it’s going to 0, or (at least) 100m in cap, given the scale of its usecases and new positioning. Given where the entire industry is (on the cusp of renewed enterprise interest in the power of public blockchain), and in that I think we are in much more capable hands now than ever, willing to give the Lition blockchain the attention it deserves, this is a bet I am happy to take. While I have some reserve capital for an opportunistic buy on the sidelines, this will be going towards Lit if we have a solid resolution to the “Litsentbymistake” function in the near future. I am cautiously optimistic.

But great analysis, never seen something so in depth on biz before

>PLEASE BUY MY BAGS SIRS

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Anchor Post. Thanks for the nutshell user, been trying to read news on LIT online but it seems to be too niche to be featured in the news. Saved.

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