Welcome to TA general, a containment for the inevitable wave of hundreds of new TAfags and degenerate gamblers that the bull market will bring.
In all seriousness, I think it will do Zig Forums good to have a centralized place for those here that do trade, including me, to have an outlet to post analysis and memelines instead of making dozens of threads that 404 after 5 replies. All markets are welcome, but crypto will be what most people are interested in.
FAQ: >Isn't trading just gambling? Short term trading is subject to more statistical noise and is more difficult than investing. 95%+ of traders lose money. Trading is similar to things like poker and sports betting in that there are ways to generate positive expectancy over large samples, even if each individual gamble is not guaranteed to win.
>You know that TA is a meme right faggot? Yes and no. Much of it is self fulfilling prophecy, but concepts such as support and resistance, consolidation and expansion cycles, and other candle patterns all have proven utility and can help predict future moves more often than a coin flip. There are more meme indicators and esoteric strategies that I won't vouch for using, but feel free to explore using whatever can make you profitable. All that matters is it works.
>How do I become a profitable trader? Risk management is your highest priority. Beyond that, just find a pattern that works and trade it. Define where your idea is invalidated and watch how price reacts to areas you mark as important. Backtest new ideas and journal your trades.
Previous thread is worth a read for any new people:
Adam Watson
Thanks bros, I am going to keep trying to help this general get traction. I want to help reduce the stigma and confusion around TA and trading in general and help more Zig Forums bros make it.
It's plenty viable. The best way to increase your stack depends heavily on your personality and experience though. I would not recommend scalping to anyone who always wants to hit that "home run" all or nothing trade, for example. There are personalities best suited for hit-and-run style, and personalities best for big swing trades. Personally, I am more of an all or nothing guy. I enjoy trying to nail exact bottoms and am willing to lose 3 or 4 trades of 1R or less to catch that 10 or 20R trade.
If you are a scalp boy, then I would suggest using a derivatives platform with maker rebates to trade on. Scalping on an exchange where you have to pay fees even for limit orders really cucks your profits, since the ratio of fee cost and profit per trade is way worse. If you are swinging for a 20% move, paying a fee to get in and out is almost irrelevant, but if you swing for 0.5%, those fees could literally cut your profits in half even if you are correct. The best way to scalp probably is to put a very small percentage of your stack on a margin trading exchange and trade with leverage as if your whole stack was there. I wouldn't do that unless you can actually trust yourself to not abuse leverage and risk too much though. It's an extremely difficult thing to resist.
If you are a swing trader, you can really trade wherever you want, spot or derivatives. Given that we are in a strong bull market now, I would be careful about selling your whole stack for USD/tether ever, as price can go quickly up without you in the case you are wrong. If you do sell, just make sure you have conditions defined where you force yourself to get back in if you are wrong. Obviously when shit is going parabolic, you can get left in the dust very quickly. The best approach I think there is for these market conditions is to just long macro dips on low leverage, rather than trying to time exact tops to sell. Trading with the trend is almost always a safer play.
>Short term trading is subject to more statistical noise and is more difficult than investing. 95%+ of traders lose money.
i think technical analysis is a result of a primitive instinct in human psychology to look for patterns and formulate predictive strategies on association alone. do technical analysts misunderstand the causal relationship between two phenomena, just like the melanesian cargo cults?
in the short term, if stock price is A at time t, then knowing nothing else, the best you can really do to predict its price at t+1 is "A". if it is increasing at a a certain rate, you could use a linear model to predict short term price changes. beyond very simple regressions/interpolations like this based on regularity/smoothness it should be essentially impossible to usefully predict stock prices as an individual trader. if such regular patterns existed, based mostly on the feedback system between an individual or group and other traders who do technical analysis, they are certainly exploited by large firms with advanced computer models, lots of data, and many experts.
i don't see how anyone can trade by technical analysis. wouldn't it make so much more sense to do some basic investigation/research on the company or project and use that as your basis when evaluating whether or not an investment will be fruitful?
i also suspect that some traders are attracted to technical analysis because they don't have the expertise to accurately judge a project's long-term prospects or usefulness.
Andrew Gutierrez
scalping is best left to machines
you would be surprised what can be done on weekly charts with good old TA.
Hunter Sanchez
>i think technical analysis is a result of a primitive instinct in human psychology to look for patterns and formulate predictive strategies on association alone Yeah I mean a ton of TA is looking for patterns that may not even be there and/or using comically low sample sizes of historical price action to project what they think will happen in the future. What makes it still "work" often enough for some people to make money with is that enough other people are doing the same tea leaf reading as you are. If nobody drew trendlines, you wouldnt see price bouncing off them nearly as much.
>i also suspect that some traders are attracted to technical analysis because they don't have the expertise to accurately judge a project's long-term prospects or usefulness. This is very true. I have no shame in admitting I am terrible at fundamental analysis for the most part. Trading is something that is much easier for me to grasp given my own skill set and personality.
I think TA just gets misunderstood by people by what it actually MOST provides a trader. The memelines and indicators and everything aren't really THAT predictive that you can confidently say "oh its for sure going here or there". What TA is best at doing is giving you the tools to more explicitly define your risk on any given idea. It has awesome synergy with risk management, because the worst problem for managing risk for most people is not having any way to know when they are wrong. This is why people baghold shitcoins to 0. They have their gut feeling fundamental analysis that it should go up and so they just never sell.
Joseph Lee
the thing to consider is signal to noise ratio. the higher the timeframe the more signal compared to noise you get.
Ethan Allen
I'm bored. Ask me to chart anything
Justin Adams
Chart a technical analysis of UUUU. Tell me a good entry point.
Jack Smith
yeah the higher timeframes are always much easier to trade on paper. what you gain in signal though, you lose (some at least) in the psychological toll of how long it takes to develop.
take pic related for example:
this is a picture perfect case of resistance turned to support. there were three monthly candles to give you time to enter into a long. any trader who looks back on this years from now will consider this one of the "easiest" trades you could possibly take. the problem is that its so easy to be shaken out of your long when price is going sideways for almost 3 months. not many people have the patience needed to resist exiting too early.
the same red box, as seen at the daily chart level. it looked quite a bit more "uncertain" when zoomed in like this. that dump from 12k to 10k really spooked a lot of people, because typically when bitcoin compresses for several months (like it did at 9k), it doesn't pull back to retest the breakout level. people were assuming that because we DID pull back, this was going to be a deviation rather than the start of a parabolic move to ATH
Awesome! thanks, looking at it and from experience I think it’ll come down to the supply zone (heavy green flat line) and continue its trend up. If it breaks the trend line I might play for a short, but I doubt it’ll happen. Uranium from the news is very bullish.
what you guys think of EOS breaking a daily trendline downwards? looks like a nice short on the daily is coming up.
Josiah Garcia
it's easy to classify or assign meaning to these patterns expostfacto. i think the opposite is actually true of what said, since any sort of model based on past price data (and some regularity assumption) is probably only going to work short-term.
i guess i'm skeptical because there does not seem to be any rigorous model or basis for these patterns (afaik), nor any statistical evidence for their use in terms of expected profit/loss.
Charles Rogers
of course, IF it closes below trendline in 3 hours..
