The insane bull case for Monero

Before the 2017 bull run the thought of BTC over 10k was considered nuts

I view a series of market forces as coming to a crux over the next two years leading to a total valuation of Monero's network over 2tn

That XMR is about to go on a run that will dwarf anything BTC ever did is far fetched indeed; here's the why broken down first into market wide forces and their effects on XMR and then on XMR specific drivers...

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Market wide drivers I'll review briefly with focus on XMR
- Depressed market psychology: the whole space hasn't come out of the bear market yet but has rebounded with most rebound value being in assets with active development and use cases. This includes XMR
- Increasing familiarity with crypto: average tech literate consumers now understand how to download and use a wallet. They also understand that different decentralized products offer different advantages and disadvantages. Where a more complex wallet experience would previously have been a hurdle to adoption, now what is required to use/store XMR is well within the realm of normal for crypto users
- Legal guidance on crypto changing from outlawing to how to regulate: XMR is ahead of the game now with a position piece from Perkins Coie. Say what you will about their ethics, they are old and recognized
- Coming crypto indices: these will favor traditionally strong crypto projects and XMR has been a part of the top twenty for a long time. Having professional custody solutions for holding a proportion of XMR will provide a linearly-increasing buy pressure as the space matures...

Now on to the more important XMR specific drivers:
- Traditional early emission format with clearly defined use case separate to BTC: When experienced investors look for precedent on how price may be effected by asset structure, the example of bitcoin will provide some level of reassurance to those looking at XMR, at least through the steepest part of the drop in emission curve until tail emission in mid 2022
- Becoming the de-facto darknet asset: This has twofold advantages in that first (and obviously) this provides continuous buy pressure and transactions usage. More importantly it provides the psychological crutch of "if the people who are risking their freedom on XMR's privacy, it's probably strong enough for my use case." This opens the door to below use cases that have yet to be really unlocked within crypto including wealth preservation from intimate relationships, offshoring for tax optimization and true safety from government/fiat censorship. More on these below.
- Simple supply and demand: Unlike BTC with defined halvenings XMR has a smooth and much steeper emission curve. As significant XMR volume is still traded against BTC this subjects XMR price to strong supply dilution through the emission curve at the same time that it is subjected to negative price pressure because of BTC's natural stock to flow cycle. Practically this means that XMR gets one real "halvening pump" but that pump is (proportionally) the equivalent of the entire emission curve, rather than a portion. This just so happens to be occurring at the time that BTC would be expected to experience its post halvening pump.
- Increasing awareness of chain analysis: A key value argument for BTC has always been censorship resistance. This is now only partially true: indeed nobody can stop you from sending and receiving BTC but you can now own "tainted" BTC. The intrinsic privacy of XMR makes it truly fungible, but more importantly it makes XMR the BTC without traceability...

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- Global distrust in fiat currencies and their uses: the current US presidential election has a country now divided over whether they believe the election was legitimate and whether the person elected can be trusted to act in the best interests of their own people. This clearly alters trust in fiat assets but more importantly it makes the use of traceable funds for any political purpose (whether for the party in power or not in power) a risk for future personal safety. This leads directly into the desire for a value transfer system that does not risk one's job or social standing.
- The act of tax avoidance as a political statement: To follow on the above, currently taxed dollars are used overwhelmingly to fund one side of the political spectrum globally. In societies with the ability to wage armed conflict with their governments this may be an option, but in all societies, removing value from taxes collected has the ability to be a political maneuver to those people outside of power. This becomes increasingly justifiable if the way that power is maintained is viewed as illegitimate by a proportion of the society. Ironically this forces the fiat issuer into a predicament: if they print more fiat that causes the fiat price of XMR to increase, further cementing the argument of their opponents. If they do not do this, they risk alienating their base who are dependent on government issued value...

Kek

Good posts user

- The cost and latency of transactions: while this may seem counterintuitive, the fact that XMR will always have a significant cost to transact and does not transact instantly is bullish from a price perspective via monetary theory. Because the point of XMR is privacy, this is not likely to be actively engineered around, as opposed to such efforts in BTC
- The singular focus of XMR development: As XMR is a privacy coin first and foremost, it maintains a strong community who are even willing to donate their own assets to fund its further development. This creates a virtuous cycle where less XMR is needed for this application and is likely already self-sustaining at current price levels for years to come, making the intrinsic value of the asset bullish even without the above supply/demand and societal drivers

There are of course a large number of other drivers (Chinese getting money out of the country, avoidance of capital gains taxes, etc.) but this should serve as an adequate base for the argument that XMR has a large number of macro trends pushing it forward while having an arguably larger number of asset specific price drivers for the foreseeable future.

If anyone has questions I'll be happy to answer. I will not discuss how much XMR I hold.

For reference: The xmr emission curve showing how much steeper it is vs BTCs stepdown curve

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>cost
arent moneroo tx at ath while paying like 2c for txs faster than buttcoin?
only downside of monero is blockchain size