He says China will have trouble just staying a unified country in the next decade. There is no chance of them becoming a world superpower.
>China suffers from both poor soils and a drought-and-floodprone climatic geography. Its farmers can only keep China fed by applying five times the inputs of the global norm. This only works with, you guessed it, bottomless financing. So when China’s financial model inevitably fails, the country won’t simply suffer a subprime-style collapse in ever subsector simultaneously, it will face famine.
>The archipelagic nature of the East Asian geography fences China off from the wider world, making economic access to it impossible without the very specific American-maintained global security environment of the past few decades.
>China’s navy is largely designed around capturing a very specific bit of this First Island Chain, the island of Formosa (aka the country of Taiwan, aka the “rebellious Chinese province”). Problem is, China’s cruise-missile-heavy, short-range navy is utterly incapable of protecting China’s global supply chains, making China’s export-led economic model questionable at best.
>Nor is home consumption an option. Pushing four decades of the One Child Policy means China has not only gutted its population growth and made the transition to a consumption-led economy technically impossible, but has now gone so far to bring the entire concept of “China” into question in the long-term.
This Jew has been wrong about geopolitics so many times that I have no idea why American Jews push and promote him so much.
Anyone who pays even remote attention understands that he's a propaganda mouthpiece.
Dominic Diaz
I don't know about it breaking into smaller states, but I do see maybe a topple of Xi and his cadre by others in the Politburo if things get strained enough.
Cooper Sanchez
>blah blah blah there is no such thing as famine. the world produces enough food to feed multiple Earths. the issue is distribution, so only remote, retarded places like the Ethiopian highlands ever have issues with starvation. Also, China is straight up Reich 3.0: Part 2. They're Han supremacists hellbent on acquiring as much land as possible and bringing the entire world under their banner. If shit hits the fan, mark my words, they will annex Mongolia or Indochina and use their men for slave labor and their women as breeder wives for their generation of emperor syndrome lost boys.
Aaron Clark
Peter Zion never takes in racial considerations. US has many races, many people arguing over what's right. China has one race and one government. There's less social friction in China. The bugmen serve their hive faithfully.
Jordan Evans
Nah, Zeihan is wrong all the time.
Dylan Peterson
They will probably get stronger and a more aggressive leader will takes xi's place. I do see America and Canada being more divided politically because of our demographics.
Leo James
>China suffers from both poor soils and a drought-and-floodprone climatic geography.
Worse than that, they've polluted their country to an insane degree because of their inefficient manufacturing methods. You think their 5-1 input ratio in farming is bad, you haven't seen their manufacturing waste. It's horrendous.
It's why they had people dropping like flies in broad daylight, damn near anyone living in an urban zone is bound to have compromised lungs because of the shit air quality. It's why the whole world thought it was the apocalypse. A mild persistent flu can wreak havoc on their population for fucks sake!
>China’s navy
Is shit. Those toy carriers they built aren't even blue water capable. More to the point, China has never engaged in modern naval warfare; their pilots crash into those carriers often, the news just states that they "caught fire" but one of the few things that cause fires on carrier decks is a plane crashing on it. They are far from ready to engage a modern and experienced navy and will lose what little bit of a navy they have against a nation like America. Hell, the Japanese alone could cause them trouble.
>Nor is home consumption an option.
This is very true. They're going to have the Japanese demographic problem x50 in the next 20 years.
What's scary are the methods they're considering to deal with this; one is forcing ethnic minorities in their autonomous regions to have half-Han children by literally divorcing women from their husbands and forcing them to marry Chinese men. This isn't new, China's done this before. Another is, they've made a database of "breed-ready" women, and are planning to use the social-credit system to encourage them to settle down and have kids.
Make no mistake, if it came down to it, the CCP would build baby-factories.
We have not yet seen the end of the batshit crazy that the CCP is capable of. We should have nuked them when we had the chance.
Brayden Scott
Why you faggots keep creating threads with sluts on the main image, are you retarded?
Tyler Martinez
Fuck knows, I just know they currently control even my fucking toilet bowl.
interesting point, I'd just like to add that decades of the 1 child policy + urbanization means when the old generation dies out there are almost zero farmers. Like take the labor shortage in Japan and multiply it times a hundred, that's what's coming in their pipes. I don't know that they're ready to go fully automated either, so who's gonna do the labor?
Oliver Garcia
>Those toy carriers carrier* China has 1 functional carrier.
Michael Gonzalez
free Tibet free Manchuria free Inner Mongolia free a lot of people living under Chinese oppression
Matthew Cooper
>China has one race and one government. There's less social friction in China. The bugmen serve their hive faithfully. Burger education
Jacob Carter
Yeah. American divestment post Corona will only speed the collapse. Should be comfy. Lots of yellows going in the ground this decade.
Aaron Edwards
Every time somebody in RL discussion says “muh China”, I take this long term argument. Their only edge is selling dollar store tier plastic crap, which Vietnam and other developing countries are more than happy to produce. The Chinese middle class is a recent phenomena, last 15 year. A new den of single child households living posh. Siblings aren’t a thing. I want several kids due to the bonds with my siblings and the live there. Big men do not have this feel. Demographic transition would have eventually hit China, but one child policy plus middle class life has sealed their fate. Add toastier and delayed marriage / child rearing, welp
James Brooks
Can we take advantage of this collapse and use our BWC to colonize chinese kunt?
Heres the two types of white mutts: 1. The kind that are first second or third generation European/Australian 2. The kind that have been here for long enough to not have ties to any one country at this point.
Zeihan is one of the latter, and knowing nobody will touch his disgusting ass with a ten foot pole he desperately clings to the establishment and spews their drivel as a coping mechanism. He knows he is going down with the ship but has no other options.
Samuel Scott
His arguments are based on two big assumptions:
1. Governments average out over time 2. Multiculturalism doesn't play any role at all in welfare of the USA
> 1.Governments average out over time My intuition is that this is not correct. Where was British Empire 2 centuries ago and where is it today? Why couldn't outstanding British leadership have been consistent over time?
> 2. Multiculturalism doesn't play any role at all in welfare of the USA I strongly believe that demographics is destiny. His views of demographics are strictly age based. He fails to even entertain a thought that changing demographics in the West might play a role in determining West's future
Justin Baker
The CCP will fail and China will become more powerful than you can possibly imagine without that weight on their back.
Owen Turner
>Burger education hicklibs are so provincial. Pretty cool that you heard on NPR that there are 33 recognized ethnic groups in china but 90% of the population is Han and the only restive group are the uyghurs, and they seem to be getting slapped up quite well.
Zion is the kind that came here after they destroyed Europe to create Israel.
Jonathan Anderson
like purestrain chinks are completely baffled by how we treat niggers, it is utterly inconceivable to them that we'd allow one of our ethnic groups to remain in a state of constant low level revolt.
Samuel Baker
SAUCE
Elijah Morgan
1. He's not Jewish 2. What was he wrong about? Can you cite any examples?
Bentley Peterson
>food security They took care of this with Africa >archipelago nature Belt and Road + expanding blue water navy >China navy weak Theyre scaling up production of carriers for power projection (they just built a floating drydock for mass carrier production) , and are working to create overland routes to bypass the US navy successully >demographic cliff This is a real problem for them that they cannot easily avoid
I hate the chinkybugs, but Zeihans arguments are mostly shortsighted copes
Ian King
>applying Western intellectual idiocy to China
AHAHAHAHAHA -demography: not everyone is as dumb as liberals to think that all growth comes from population growth and that you need to import immigrants from Africa for it -climate: hurr durr
Here's all you need to know: Western constraints do not apply to the Chinese govt. Fuck intellectuals
Charles Thompson
You are correct. China is the continuation of National socialism. They haven’t been communist since Mao died
Tyler Lewis
Oh, yeah you're right nvm. Disregard my first post he's actually the cannonball that's sinking the ship in the first place.
Luis Hill
asd xiaoya
Jaxson Brown
Scanned the article and it truly sounds like a guy talking out of his ass >It's all gonna implode >Buy my book He talks about China as if it's going to fall apart in days. I bet his portfolio looks a lot different
