What’s the likelihood Trump is going to win in 2020 in your mind in spite current efforts?

If he was not going to win reelection, the Dems would not have to resort to such drastic measures.

trump will win

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100% chance of re-election, 100% chance of a coup attempt following, 50% chance of successful coup.

9/10 that orange kike wins unless Bidet has some anime ass pull stashed away.

Zig Forums seems more delusional than ever it seems. Election day will actually be really fucking sad

Its an clairvoyance thing. People with our abilities can tell you the outcomes of major future events. Trump is going to win 110%

Pol has a high concentration of people with clairvoyance abilities. It's the largest online presence of people like that. So far all of the clairvoyant people has seen the same outcome. Trump wins.

Orange kike man vs Bidet the senile demented rapist (gone wrong) (gone sexual). The whole election scam is a joke, the absolute state!

Eh, like 10%.

Given Zig Forums poor track record of claiming ww3/A national race war is around the corner and will be spurred by whatever said event is in the news, I beg to differ. Besides claiming prophetic abilities, do you have a deeper analysis?

Probably 100% since he has plot armor. Unless the plot is he falls this round. Hard to say.

AZ +1 +/-3
FL -2 +/-3
GA -1 +/-5 (Southern black awakening uncertainty)
IA +2 +/-3
NC +1 +/-3
NH +0.5 +/-3
MI -3 +/-5 (black apathy and car industry uncertainty)
MN -5 +/-6 (riot uncertainty)
OH +2 +/-3
PA -2 +/-4 (based Italian uncertainty)
TX +3 +/-3
VA -5 +/-6 (2A uncertainty)
WI -0.5 +/-3

All other states will be the same as 2016. Overall, Trump loses unless several miracles happen.

What if it doesn’t matter because he doesn’t plan on leaving?

That’s reassuring

The military will depose him if he doesn’t. That or the Barr investigations need to reveal something here soon to warrant suspending the election/postponing it.

Wasn’t that the case in 2016 too?

No it's not, two thirds of americans support the riots and trump's approval rating is jimmy carter level. Get a grip, of things continue like this, trump is fubar.
And the measures are working.

Wasn't what the case? The toss-up states I listed? Trump won FL, GA, MI, PA, and WI in 2016, and I think he'll lose all of them. I think he could pick up NH though just because the libertarian party is such a joke right now. He'll lose district 2 in NE as well, for what little that counts.

NOPE

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The question is, are they going to vote for Biden though? I foresee a low voter turnout due to lack of enthusiasm around Biden. Largely, the same amount of people who voted for Trump last year are still going to vote for him. I actually foresee Biden having a smaller turnout than Clinton. Can’t really leverage the whole “first woman president/be apart of history” narrative in his case.

But he was predicted to lose most of those states in 2016 too based on polling data at the time prior to election night, right?

4 years of dealing with this moron and how he divided the nation is going to have a ton of voter turn out for Biden.

Nobody likes Hilary. Biden is not Hilary.

>Largely, the same amount of people who voted for Trump last year are still going to vote for him.
Trump is down 10-15 points with whites in most polls relative to his standing in 2016. Many of them are going to sit it out. I think Biden will see similar turnout to Clinton, but not lower; the "anybody but Drumpf" crowd are small, but still real. I bet his turnout increases by about 2 points across the board (with a little variation here and there, e.g. I think Colorado will go +10 Dem this election because of woke retards), while Trump's turnout collapses by as much as 8 points in critical swing states. Despite Pedo Joe memes and whatnot, people don't really detest Biden for the most part, they just think he's senile.

He is much more popular than clinton was and the left is 100% motivated to vote trump out, especially since mail in voting will be a factor this time around.

This is what most major polls were predicting on sept 1, 2016.

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safe bet on any contemporary presidential election is about 50/50 which is why the swing states are so important. trump just needs his original voters to show up again and have the democratic turnout be low because exactly nobody actually wants biden in office and he's in like flynn

Here's where I see the election at right now assuming things hold relatively steady or cool down a bit. If the stock market bump indeed turns out to be a dead cat bounce, you can turn most of those light pink states blue as well.

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Support ebbs and flows, it's still early. Trump is sitting back at the moment but he'll finish strong like always.

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>What’s the likelihood Trump is going to win in 2020 in your mind in spite current efforts?
Maybe 20%. Things are looking fairly grim now between the pandemic and "LAW & ORDER" for the last month. The only major thing that I can see that could change things in Trump's favor would be Biden going full dementia in front of a live audience of millions such as in a debate.

pennsylvania as a hard blue was overly optimistic but you can see they knew that michigan was up for grabs which of course asks the question as to why the ultra-scientific clinton campaign was apparently unaware of that fact

>And the measures are working.
no it's not, not a single person i know who voted for trump is not gonna vote for him, not once have i or any person around me been polled, once again all this shit is, is an attempt to black pill the right into not voting at all, not one likes fucking biden these stupid fucking polls don't mean shit and never have

Should we all assume the Barr investigation isn’t going to be a factor then?

michigan, pennsylvania, and florida will go red again. there's a solid chance minnesota might join them

what happened in august?

Florida is just as likely to turn blue as Texas is. It's not happening.

Dunno. the Zionists are bretty cunning

Daily reminder that the polls underestimated Clinton support in Nevada, Arizona, and Colorado to about the same degree that they overestimated her support in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Second daily reminder that demographics alone, all else being equal, would result in Trump losing Michigan and Florida in 2020.
The only thing going for Trump is the silent majority meme. In a world where you can easily lose your career for saying boomer Republican shit like "Blue lives matter", it's very possible that the polls are underestimating Trump support by 10 points. But it would be unprecedented, and the fact that Trump isn't sticking up for his supporters further hurts that.

Trump will lose as long as he has data geek Brad Parscale as his campaign manager.
His campaign message should be about cancel culture, political correctness, how American's are no longer free to speak their minds without fear of retribution.
Any half decent campaign manager would easily be able to fold these issues into the campaign. But right now, Trump has some data geek that is Jareds bff running his fucking re-election.
The Tulsa rally was the first of many disasters if this guy isn't replaced.

>Should we all assume the Barr investigation isn’t going to be a factor then?
When has that stupid swamp twat ever delivered on anything? Even if he did, the mood of the nation is not such that people would really give a shit about Russiagate being a confirmed hoax while people are scared of getting sick, losing their livelihoods, and being violently mobbed.

You can and should vote, but the reality is that trump has lost a lot of his white voters and many aren't coming back. He is fucked. Your little enclave is not indicative of what is actually going on.
It's not even going to be in the news.
Trump is sabotaging himself, he clearly doesn't want to win. Pascale and Kushner aren't even conservatives.

As things stand now? 90% I would say.

Biden is about as enticing as a bag of shit. He's completely uninspiring, and fake.
Say what you will about trump, but at least he has a message. At least he seems to have a goal for the country.

>but at least he has a message
"KEEP AMERICA GREAT"

taking into account that the american population is getting dumber every day, it is probable that he will not win

>Trump is sabotaging himself, he clearly doesn't want to win.
I disagree. From all we've heard Trump is obsessed with winning re-election. What he doesn't realize is that the ship is off course and only he can right it.
The Tulsa rallly should have gotten Parscale fired on the spot. Trump is literally running a Hillary campaign. Data + moar money = win.
Bannon and Kellyann would be running this campaign very differently.

Either he will or he won't win.
I'd give it about 50/50.

It's guaranteed thanks to the niggers and Antifa terrorists. They redpilled tons of fence sitters. Those riots were free Trump ads. Under budget and ahead of schedule.

Still voting Trump.

>In 2016 all the leftshits were saying america is already great
>In 2020 leftshits will all say that america is shit

>"KEEP AMERICA GREAT"
He's needs something better than that. "Make America Free Again" or something like that.
And "Sleepy" Joe is a shitty nickname. Biden is a fucking swamp establishment Democrat. He's a schemer and a deceiver and Trump should name him accordingly.

No chance, he's as weak as biden except he can string a sentence together sort of. I made 20k betting on trump in 2016 and i'm gonna make another 20k on biden. I only wish i could spend that money on the guns and ammunition you're gonna need if you're white in the 2020s

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>I disagree. From all we've heard Trump is obsessed with winning re-election.
>makes repealing the ACA the current priority
ok
Trump was given two softballs (COVID and BLM) and tripped over both. He's good at staying in headlines but he has no idea how to control a narrative.

>>makes repealing the ACA the current priority
He's got shitty advisors. I'm sure this is Jared's idea to take attention away from the riots and covid.

Healthcare:
>Not Obamacare
>Inject bleach
That's as close as the Republicans have to a healthcare plan

Guns:
>banned bump stocks
>my opponent is antigun
"Buy a shotgun" sounds so anti-gun.

Economy:
Ruins

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