# >boxing match >heavyweight champion vs some bum off the street >prediction: “champ will win” >champ beats the shit out of bum >suddenly a lamp falls and kills champ >bum declared winner by default >”hurr prediction wrong”
>pa is going blue HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA COPE
>polls need to be +10 for Biden to have a chance. Trump is fucked.
His poll numbers are terrible — worse than they were in 2016. Clinton, in 2016, never hit 50% in the polls. Biden, however, has hit 50% and is likely to keep going up.
You may say that, despite Hillary being ahead in the polls, Trump still won in 2016. Well, that's because the gap between the two candidates wasn't as big as it is now, where it is an actual threat to his Presidency. Trump only needed to convince a few Clinton voters to vote for him to win the election. Another reason Trump won is because there were many Americans (1 in 5) who disliked both him and Clinton, but the people who disliked both still favoured Trump by a larger margin. This is different for Biden, however. Voters who dislike Trump and Biden still favor Biden over Trump by 32%. So, with this taken into consideration, it seems very likely that Biden will win, even if his image is significantly tarnished.
You're sad bro. I proved to you that Hillary was up by 10+ in PA and WI at this point in 2016 and you are convinced that Biden will win these states even though he is only up by 6 currently.
Leo Hill
Obama was just a taste for these white racists. Wait til they get a feeling for president harris. Or president booker. White boys will be jumping of bridges and shit.
Eli Robinson
It's ogre......
Owen Morales
MAGA
you're doing this to make people turn away from pedogate and other investigations Zig Forums does. it wont work, pizza gate is real and no amount of psyops such as this will work, cheers
>suddenly a lamp falls and kills champ >bum declared winner by default If that was how 2000 played out then sure, but simply crying B-B-BUT HE CHEATED doesn't make the election illegitimate
Mason Price
Polls are fake news and propaganda.
Elijah Jones
>Clinton, in 2016, never hit 50% in the polls. Still posting this shit. Still being proven wrong.
PROOF OF FAKE POLLS Priorities USA, Biden’s largest Superpac shows this is as the electoral map. The ad money they spend is based on this. This was in early July btw.
Amazing that you would use the NPC meme when you're trying to reset the conversation with your invalidated points
Owen Stewart
True and Clinton was literally 8 points up on Trump at this time in 2016. Right now Biden is 6 points over Trump. And after the debates it will be Trump +5.
Nicholas Turner
> OH NO NO NO NO NO NO NO THEY GOT TRUMP NOW! > IMPEACH!
I've never worked a day in my life. I still have money.
Anthony Jenkins
Even Nate doesn't have the answer: >"That could be do to..." or "but perhaps also a shift" Believing anything from Nate Silver is retarded. Believing vague sentences like this is even worse. That doesn't prove anything dummy. It just proves that Trump was able to overcome a 10+ point disadvantage and will be able to overcome a 6 point disadvantage. And I love how you shifted from "Hillary was doing worse than Biden right now" to "Ok, she wasn't do worse, but here is some vague reason why".
Matthew Anderson
Yes, and the same polls are STILL underrepresenting non-college voters. I saw a Texas poll a few days ago that assumed 75% of the voting public was at least college educated.
Hunter Allen
I was just thinking the same thing. I'm distrustful of 'operations.' Let them have their fun though, Elsagate opened a lot of people's eyes. You can't stop people from being distracted anyway they're going to do whatever they are going to do.
Biden has ceased campaigning on the ground, his campaign has collapsed into navel gazing and ennui, opinion polling won't matter if they don't get your people to pokemon go to the polls.
Since when did /ptg/ get dabbed on this hard? Show some backbone /ptg/. What the fuck is this?
Bentley Evans
>That doesn't prove anything dummy. It just proves that Trump was able to overcome a 10+ point disadvantage and will be able to overcome a 6 point disadvantage. HAHAHAHA. The polls had a poor methodology that made the gap seem larger. However, methodologies have changed since then. >And I love how you shifted from "Hillary was doing worse than Biden right now" to "Ok, she wasn't do worse, but here is some vague reason why". They were pretty even though. You're just a moron
>Proof? You claimed Hillary never polled about 50%, I proved you wrong. You claimed Hillary was doing better than Biden in the battleground states at this time in 2016, I proved you wrong.
Jordan Torres
JEJ, they're seriously concerned about VA
Jacob Turner
So you’re a NEET who lives on gibs?
Anthony Murphy
but we had only couple thousand deaths in china, and haven't had a single case in months :^)
That's not true. He left yesterday because that woman was screeching like a harpy because of the EOs. If Congress had passed something they wouldn't be needed at all.
>HAHAHAHA. The polls had a poor methodology that made the gap seem larger. However, methodologies have changed since then. Could you describe how specifically the methodologies have changed? Because I'm still finding the same 50% college degree 50% poor people samples that don't reflect actual demographics of voters.
Hudson Cooper
Somewhere in the multiverse there's an Earth that has enough Biden supporters to maintain a 24/7/365 bump-limiting Biden general, where six conservative trolls endlessly vomit up troll posts to assuage their fragile suicidal impulses.
Biden has been spending there, Trump to my knowledge hasn't but unless the Postal Service seriously loses 25% of Biden's ballots like they did in New York I don't see it in the cards. imo the Biden campaign should be most worried about Minnesota, particularly after the Floyd riots.
>Hillary never hit 50% proven wrong >the gap between the two candidates wasn't as big as it is now Also proven wrong
Need I go on? Just because you operate on a programmed conversation tree, doesn't mean we do
Colton Miller
>six You're being awfully generous there. I'm pretty certain it's one guy with VPNs. That's why he's always posting as a foreigner.
James Parker
>However, methodologies have changed since then. No they haven't. They're still under representing non college people. To make major methodology changes would cost $. Why do that when you can just claim 2016 was a fluke and continue charging the full price for polls? >They were pretty even though. You're just a moron No they weren't. The RCP Average shows that Hillary was up by 10+ in PA and WI at this time in 2016. And AGAIN with this pic. What state is it for? Where did it come from? And this pic is for LATE AUGUST 2016. We are talking about EARLY AUGUST 2020 and 2016 because that's what we are in right now and can properly compare data from then and now.
>has no money >has no job >a literal parasite >simps for Lincoln Project You’re a cherry picking, spamming cunt who doesn’t believe a word he says.
Ayden James
Where is this chart from? What is your obsession with not citing sources? But let me guess: It's 538, just like all your other shit. 538 is ONE POLL. RCP is an AVERAGE of many polls. That's why people take RCP more seriously than Nate. You are literally just cherry picking polls to suit your arguments.
Michael Martin
there are definitely like 3-4 different people just on the kind of shit they say and do, my favorite is the one who gets triggered and starts schizoposting in all caps
Brandon Jenkins
he can be like miller for jews, the last terminator into the smelter
I'd love to know more about it, but without being able to read moon runes, hard to say. Can China possibly be as pozzed as we are?
Logan Moore
>shilling for a dementia patient that did nothing for America over the 50 years he's been in DC Not exactly the most progressive thing I'd figure, but since leftists only care about power I'm apparently wrong. Oh but it is. Chink women NEED nigger men. I say we send them spic men too. Send the spic and nigger women to the chink men.
Actually 538 is far worse than that. It's not an aggregate of polls at all, it's just nate pulling shit out of his ass. What 538 does is they "adjust" polls to remove "bias." This literally always moves the average toward the democrats and no they do not give any explanation for why they move polls. 538 rates Quinnipiac as the best poll when their final poll of 2016 was Hillary +6. Quinnipiac their "most accurate pollster" has biden up like 12 on Trump in Florida right now. That tells you all you need to know.
Christopher Parker
>Could you describe how specifically the methodologies have changed? They've started weighting better by education ever since they realized their errors.
Or perhaps he’s wondering why a leaf would care so much about foreign taxation laws?
Nicholas Taylor
Ah yes "weighting." It's okay that we have a 50% college graduate poll because we totally "weighted it" goyim, just trust us we wont provide any evidence on how or to what degree we did that.
Brandon Taylor
>They've started weighting better by education ever since they realized their errors. No they didn't. They found out that was part of the reason for the incorrect polling in 2016, but they made no changes. Big changes cost big money. They would have to rewrite their entire algorithm and model bases, formulate new contact strategies on how to reach non-college voters, etc, etc. They did none of this. State level polling is just as bad as it was back then.
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Wyatt Murphy
>No wonder he's losing PA I live in PA went to a flag store today. The sales lady said American flags keep selling out some are on backorder. They only had about 10 flag poles left. She said the American flag and the Trump flag are the hottest selling items. The store was filled with people buying flags. I dont know why a Canadian person can say anything about PA. I also bought a handgun today. PA is a free state full of Trump flags and signs. You’re getting the wrong info. Stop believing the news and sip coping.
>payroll tax deferment is capped at $100k >social security is required to be paid up to $200k >70% of Americans make less than $100k >there were 143.3 million taxpayers in 2017 >those 70% of Americans contributed $4.47 trillion in taxable income according to the 2018 census (pic related) >the tax rate for social security is 6.2% >the amount of social security paid by the 70% is $277 billion >the other 30% of Americans contributed $6.84 trillion in taxable income capped at $200k >the amount of social security paid by the 30% is $424 billion As an estimate, since the census deals in income ranges, 60% of the money going to social security is still going to social security. A far cry from social security being terminated.
