Electoral Prediction

This is my prediction for the 2020 election.

Some states I wanted to talk about:

Arizona: Kelly has a sizable lead on McSally and given her unpopularity as of late and Arizona's past voting habits, it seems to me that this state will be closely in favor for Biden.

Texas, Georgia, and Florida: Trump will probably win these states. Texas has been moving more left and left in the past 2 decades each election. I highly doubt Biden could win these states, even though Florida is always considered a swing state, but if he does, its over for Trump.

Rust Belt: Wisconsin is looking to be favored by Biden, but Trump's increased ad attention may tilt the balance eventually. Overall, Republicans are making the same mistake Democrats did in 2016 by completely ignoring the Rust Belt by stopping ads in Michigan, etc. Indiana will be red as its Pence's state, in addition to Ohio.

Overall, Trump needs to carry quite a few states in order to make a victory. Biden has quite a few options this time around.

Attached: prediction.png (1466x992, 122.37K)

Other urls found in this thread:

felonvoting.procon.org/state-felon-voting-laws/
twitter.com/SFWRedditGifs

fantasy

Why?

More realistic than most of the high on hopium maps posted here.

This is more accurate than most shifty map threads. Most faggots have nevada going red for some retard reason. Nevada never goes red for federal elections

Yeah, I think I'm being generous by turning Wisconsin and Arizona blue, but its by a small margin.

I see maps posted that give Trump PA and a LOT of Rust Belt and Northeast states.

My map has Biden by winning about 30 electoral votes.

Biden is going to win FL.
Trump won in 2016 here by 100k votes, since that time we have:
-given 1.5 million+ felons (read: mostly shitskin democrats) the right to vote
-taken in approximately 300k Puerto Ricans (read: shitskin democrats) in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria
-had the usual annual influx of nonwhites as a result of the browning of the country
Assuming that nothing else has changed (it has, enthusiasm for Trump is markedly less than it was in 2016) if 5-10% of this new constituency bothers to vote then it is over. FL is a lean blue state now, people denying this are either ignorant or lying.
The Rust Belt and Arizona are a lot more in play than Florida is,

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>The Rust Belt and Arizona are a lot more in play than Florida is
I agree with this 100%

But traditionally Florida has always swung left and right, but perhaps it will be different this year.

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Without the hurricane and the felon voting issue I'd agree with you, but that's simply too much of a shift. Maybe if Biden accidentally says "nigger" or better yet "spic" on TV the state will stay Red, but otherwise it's gone.

This is the 2020 results

Now fuck off

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I will even throw in Flordia to little Dumbfuck Donnie, but that pos is still gonna' lose!

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felonvoting.procon.org/state-felon-voting-laws/

they have served their time they have the right to vote.

Attached: Screenshot_2020-08-18 State Felon Voting Laws - Felon Voting - ProCon org.png (809x723, 330.99K)

It seems to generous to add Ohio, Texas, Georgia, and to categorize Kentucky and West Virginia as anything but solid red.

Kentucky and WV should be solid red, but the rest is reasonable

Your first two points don’t apply to 2020, and DeSantis has been deporting like hell.

desantis is deporting american citizens?

>Your first two points don’t apply to 2020
How do they not apply?
>DeSantis has been deporting like hell.
No, he hasn't.

They absolutely shouldn't, felons have no business telling anyone else how to live their lives.

should convicted felons who have served their time permanently lose the ability to own guns?

should convicted felons who have served their time for libel or obscenity laws permanently lose the ability to publish a book?

Kamala is sinking Biden in the polls. He wont win PA, or AZ, WI because of his gun stance. He pissed off the unions and blacks. How is he gonna win?

wisconsin kicked out scott walker and reelected a super gay and liberal senator in 2018 but you think two centrist democrats are gonna sink WI?

lol

Harris is doing well in the polls by a 6% lead, and currently Biden is doing better tahn Obama did during his election days in 2008.

Harris is the better choice, I think Warren or possibly even Sanders would have been good, but I think everyone was expecting a woman VP.

Also PA hasn't been red since Reagan, what makes you think it will turn, considering its poll numbers?

No one cares about your stupid map faggot

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>should convicted felons who have served their time permanently lose the ability to own guns?
No, I think they should be able to own guns. My concern is primarily that I don't want them having any influence on politics, guns are a separate issue.
>should convicted felons who have served their time for libel or obscenity laws permanently lose the ability to publish a book?
Also no. If they write more libel or obscenity they should be arrested again, but their ability to publish should not be taken away.

This is about keeping people who have proven themselves to be either bad or retarded from influencing politics and society.

you cant pick and choose which rights to protect. voting is a right just like gun ownership or freedom of speech.

a convicted felon (especially if they are a violent one) owning guns that can be used to inflict harm on people is a way bigger risk to society than giving them the right to vote.

PA aint flippin

>you cant pick and choose which rights to protect
Yes I absolutely can. What fucking planet do you come from? Just because the US won't ever likely do this doesn't mean it isn't a valid choice for a society to make.

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"valid" choice =/= ideologically or legally consistent choice

when you complete your sentence, you have paid your debt to society.

the american revolution was partially started over the concept of no taxation without representation but you're happy to take that right away for someone who has paid their debts to the system?

if you believe that you're better off moving to iran, faggot

Why?

>"valid" choice =/= ideologically or legally consistent choice
You are assuming my ideology is strict American Constitutionalism, that is incorrect.
>when you complete your sentence, you have paid your debt to society.
That is irrelevant to my position, I do not believe in universal democracy, so even someone who has "paid their debt to society" does not automatically obtain the right to vote under my worldview.
>the american revolution was partially started over the concept of no taxation without representation but you're happy to take that right away for someone who has paid their debts to the system?
Yes.
>if you believe that you're better off moving to iran, faggot
Make me. This nation exists for the purpose of the advancement of the white race, not of fancy ideological nonsense. Take your liberalism and shove it.

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Uhhhh... It's been red one notable time since then, my man. Rack your brain, it was during an election of some repute.