Trump is leading by a wider margin than he was in 2016, and even than Obama was in 2008. How is this known? Google Search Results.
Pic related shows Trump's search history significantly higher than Biden's and remains this way at all points since early summer. However, this means nothing unless it is brought into focus by past presidential elections --> See 2016 Election Search Results
2016 Election: This chart shows that Trump was consistently ahead of Clinton throughout the entire election process, and this ultimately resulted in a Trump win. A pattern is observed when looking back further --> See 2012 Election Search Results
2012 Election: Here you can see that Obama actually leads Romney by a similar margin as Trump did in 2016. This would lead one to believe that the electoral college would yield similar results between the two years: it did (332 Obama vs. 304 Trump). --> See 2018 Election Search Results
2008 Election: Here you see that there is a much wider gap than the past elections. It is also important to note that the graph does not change throughout the years, so any observable difference between the candidates is the actual difference. The wider gap once again signifies a larger electoral college win than a smaller gap. --> See 2004 Election Search Results
2004 Election: Here you see sketchy data at best; Bush and Kerry remain nearly even throughout the election process, with Bush barely taking the election - as expected by the narrow lead. One may be able to argue Bush was slightly ahead, but I would argue that the results are inconclusive. The reason I include this election is because it is the earliest Google Trends can go back to.
Conclusion: Trump has been counted out by numerous polling agencies, MSM, and independent sources (538, etc.), but there is solid data that exists to support his reelection, especially with respect to past election cycles.
2016 Election: This chart shows that Trump was consistently ahead of Clinton throughout the entire election process, and this ultimately resulted in a Trump win. A pattern is observed when looking back further --> See 2012 Election Search Results
2012 Election: Here you can see that Obama actually leads Romney by a similar margin as Trump did in 2016. This would lead one to believe that the electoral college would yield similar results between the two years: it did (332 Obama vs. 304 Trump). --> See 2018 Election Search Results
2008 Election: Here you see that there is a much wider gap than the past elections. It is also important to note that the graph does not change throughout the years, so any observable difference between the candidates is the actual difference. The wider gap once again signifies a larger electoral college win than a smaller gap. --> See 2004 Election Search Results
2004 Election: Here you see sketchy data at best; Bush and Kerry remain nearly even throughout the election process, with Bush barely taking the election - as expected by the narrow lead. One may be able to argue Bush was slightly ahead, but I would argue that the results are inconclusive. The reason I include this election is because it is the earliest Google Trends can go back to.
Conclusion: Trump has been counted out by numerous polling agencies, MSM, and independent sources (538, etc.), but there is solid data that exists to support his reelection, especially with respect to past election cycles.
I think it is also important to look at the RCP for battleground states 2020 vs. 2016 as well. This does a good job of casting doubt over the "surefire" polls that failed us back in 2016. I want to reiterate that I do not mean to say that Trump is necessarily going to win, but that he is doing much better than people give him credit for and that with respect to this metric he is ahead.
Bentley Lopez
I think this hints at that “enthusiasm gap” that Styx is always rattling on about. That odd kid is smarter than he looks.
This is also something most of us outside of the major metropolitan areas are “feeling”. We all see the trump flags and almost no Biden merch. I have personally seen absolutely zero Biden signs, and I’m only about an hour outside a major metropolitan area, and an especially dark area at that. Real people, not the ones stuck in online echo chambers, know what’s about to go down. There are going to be screeching retards claiming cheating, because they can’t possibly see their guy losing, but the rest of us aren’t so sure.
Jeremiah Peterson
Good digging user.
Kayden Martin
The enthusiasm gap is definitely somthing to point out. There is a fantastic stat for that from past elections that I attached, although the numbers around Trump and Biden are somewhat outdated.
Kek, this'll do it! Nothing to worry about Biden Bros, they reverse Jewgled the images.
Robert Rivera
Thank you sir. I showed some of this to my roommates who are more center than myself, and they were quite surprised by the data. I myself was when I looked into it too. I did not expect to find a correlation with the election results, much less the distribution of the points in the electoral college.
Dominic Reed
> Demographics and internet usage patterns are the same in 2020 as 2008
Super good work desu. When reading this I was convinced this thread was made by the Trump campaign
Brody Gray
Source in this one?
Xavier Flores
Based. Also, as far as I can tell, Trump can lose by up to six points or so in the popular vote, yet still win in an electoral college landslide. Trump lost on what, 3 points in the popular vote in 2016 and still had a pretty hefty EC victory. Not to mention, poll suppression by the major news networks, unwilling respondents, faulty weighting and so forth. Anyone who thinks Biden has this election in the bag breathes exclusively through his mouth. Just look and see these late game shenanigans the Dems are trying to pull and you can tell that they know the race is far from over.
what kind of retard goes to google and types in "vote trump" or "vote biden" like what does that even do?
Jack Cruz
Boggles my mind that anyone believes Biden has even a 20% chance to win. All he has going for him is the anti-Trump vote, and that segment has only decreased in size since 2016. The only silver lining about the unending propaganda about the "inevitable Biden win" is the gigantic amounts of salt we'll be able to reap for at least 6 months after the election. Thank god for retarded normies with poor pattern recognition.
Easton Davis
lol nah but a job like that would be nice desu
Jeremiah Butler
Good post OP
David Ramirez
Obammy was telling the voters today saying that it was "going to be a close one" What happened to BTFO on the polls?
Jack Rogers
>what kind of retard goes to google and types in "vote trump" or "vote biden" >What does this even do? So who's the retard now?
Jose Sullivan
It's almost like Trump voters are afraid to admit they are voting for Trump and that only Dems enthusiastically respond to pollsters.
Jackson Bennett
they're also called tory/tories, maybe even more commonly
Ayden Parker
I believe Trump will flip IL red this time.
The CNN/Fox News has been proven to be the best predictor since we have this data.
