4 more years?

Primary turnout is literally how people predicted Trump was gonna win in 2016, historically it is the best predictor of November turnout.

>I don't believe in the polls
>I believe in one schizo who uses 270towin dot com to make a prictiction in favor of his preferred candidate.

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This has been debunked

The fact that Biden doesn't campaign in the swing states like OH or FL, (even before his cracked son fucked his whole shit up) tells you a lot about how fucked his run is.

Also I'm sure we all noticed the usual poll shepherding going on, (polls that are not accurate but are made to demoralize people and build narrative rather than facts) have Trump higher than they were predicting in 2016. Which goes to show that even in 15+ D polls people are switching to Trump. Though fully expect to see on the day of election 90%-99% Biden gonna win exit polls and the such.

Also as an aside on polling. With Trump supporters being killed in the streets, people burning down buildings and the such. No one in their right mind will tell some rando on the phone that they are voting Trump, as they could just as well be next.

>Nevada red
>Minnesota red

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I asked this in the last map thread no reply, so asking you Ameribros again. Is NM really more likely to be red than CO? I thought it was the other way around, any reason NM is considered swing/red this election?

sir that has been debunked.

>big beautiful red border states
fuck yea, single tear

Accurate, but Colorado will flip red.

Yes because there are signs latinos might back trump and colorado is just california-lite

lmao why is maryland lean blue? pic related will happen

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VA is red this year

NM has only gone red once since 1988. It seems unlikely for it to go Red.

Can someone actually post his 2016 map predictions, plus some of the earlier ones? I found his post referencing that he got it right but I can't find a source from the time.

I'd wager Maine is going red too, but everything else looks legit.

Colorado is tricky. They legalized mj for recreation and the demographic has changed quite a bit.

biden has 4 must win states this year, PA, MI, MN, and WI
if he loses any one of those he loses the election
3 of them went to trump last time

if he loses WI or MN he can still make up for either or by picking up AZ, but I find it unlikely he would win AZ if he lost either of those

I think a lot of people are taking a blue Virginia for granted this year. It had an advantage in 2016 only because of Tim Kuck and Obama barely held on to it in 2012.

The states that aren't getting as much events or polling are the ones to watch. Michigan was one in 2016.

I'm not disagreeing with you, but I looked it up and Biden did make stops in OH/FL this week.

What's up with Maryland? Is it not as solid Democrat as it used to be?

Why the fuck is the home alone kid predicting elections?

>electing presidents by popular vote is untenable because a handful of states with major population centers would dictate the outcome
>instead, every 4 years we all know exactly how 45 states are going to vote
>spend a year speculating over the same 5 or so swing states which always determine the outcome
There's gotta be a better way to do this shit.

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This fuckwit! I know damn well Trump will take Oregon.

Trump has Ohio for sure. I live in the most liberal hellhole city of Ohio and there are still more Trump Yard signs than all of Biden, ACAB, and BLM combined.

NM has had a lot of new republican registrants and Gary Johnson may have helped chip away the usual Dem voter base. They're also low radar. Colorado on the other hand is basically California ever since legal weed.

Gotta disagree with you there. Rural Ohio has Trump signs up the ass but you come anywhere near Cuyahoga and there's biden signs at nearly every household

>Nevada red
>Minnesota red
>Florida red
>Arizona red
>Winconsin red
>Texas red

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>Minnesota red

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They have rank choice fuckery going on this year, so who knows.

I think Trump will snag the small district in Maine. I hate that they gerrymandered VA as soon as their Democrat governor took over.

This i believe

>There's gotta be a better way to do this shit.

The election system was designed for everyone to get a vote. It was designed so only certain people could.

Senators weren't even directly elected until about 100 years ago.

Delmarva Maryland is basically Alabama. I was born there, I would know. State overall will still go blue as will Delaware being Biden's home state.

Also, Trump hasn't even bothered going to CO, which he definitely would if he thought it was in play.

Sorry

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