Professional stock trader here. If any of you Zig Forumstards want easy money, you should be betting on Joe Biden to win the presidential election. He's currently at 60-65% betting odds across major betting sites and exchanges, yet polls give him a chance of winning upwards of 85-90%. My calculations say it should be closer to 95%.
Pollsters have been bending over backwards trying to factor in the White Working Class vote, the Shy Trump vote, and suppressed turnout among youths/nonwhites. The fact is that there is a MASSIVE energized Biden vote that the polls are missing. The popular vote will be around 53% Biden 44% Trump. Trump is going to lose the upper midwest states for sure. But the big story is going to be Trump's crushing defeats in AZ and GA. He's going to lose by 5 points or more in each. Surprise upsets would be Biden taking Montana, Alaska, or South Carolina. These are totally in play although not guaranteed. Bet accordingly guys.
Why do early vote totals not match up with polling? When you extrapolate from the early totals with preferred voting method you get massive republican victory, why is that polling so incorrect but candidate preference polling is correct?
Brayden Barnes
Why would they be buying up solar companies en masse? Trump is going to pass the Green New Deal? Lmao
I thought he was going to win in 2016 too. It's so fucking obvious that he's going to lose though.
Adam Jenkins
I agree with OP, dump Trump and let it ride on Biden
t. totally not going to wait for Trump to get low odds, then buy in and reap the reward on election day
Alexander Jackson
>professional stock trader >uhhh so yeah this extremely public and apparent information gives Biden a 95% chance of winning but these odds are wrong and only giving him 60% so this is great value go ahead and put your life's savings on it
Sports bettor here, this is what we call "reverse line movement" and you are a square
>kiwi >professional stock trading Yeah nice one mate, you must be a gun trading your banana republic currency on the 8 publicly listed companies in Un Zud.
Caleb Edwards
yes, stock traders spend their one hour not sleeping, doing blow, and fucking whores typing up slide threads on Zig Forums.....
Chase Campbell
Once again proving that most "professional" stock traders got their jobs through inside connections, not any actual talent
Eli Moore
Realistically it's because using voter registration regression modeling, we can see that California will probably have 9-10 million Dem votes in 2020, which gives extra weight to the Democrats even as they appear to be flagging everywhere else. Simultaneously the polls refuse to account for sharp increases in registration in republican areas/states/voters.
I've made over $3,000 on JinkoSolar. God bless the Chinese.
Luke Young
When you take early vote totals and extrapolate with preferred method polling they show a comfortable republican victory. Why is that? Is the polling wrong? If the polling is wrong, why are you confident in state projections?
Brody Brown
This is exactly the sort of retarded mentality that most retail is taking. The best bets are the dumbest ones. It really is that simple.
Noah Flores
Why are you entertaining shills?
Asher Thompson
>MASSIVE energized Biden vote I really wish anyone who believes this could understand just how utterly insane a claim it is. Biggest gastlighting of the past 4 years.
Liam Fisher
Ive got 600 bucks riding on Trump on predictit. This is the year i make back previous losses.
David Gomez
I've made over 200k USD betting against the USD this year. Take it from me, if Biden wins and Dems sweep, the USD is going to the fucking dumpster and you'll see $3000 gold, $50 silver, and $30000 Bitcoin along with a huge fucking moon in every emerging market.
Mason Stewart
It's fun to watch him not respond. I've been saging
Eli Powell
GOP election day turnout is going to be
Nathan Morgan
I tried. Good luck
Wyatt Hill
You can take targetsmarts modeled party early returns or actual returns in the states reporting by party, plug in any polling on early vote/ Election Day preference, give democrats 2/3 of independents/unaffiliated and republicans don't lose any states from 2016 except PA, and they potentially gain a few depending on model