Apparently if Trump wins PA he has a 75% chance of winning

PA is his worst performing swing state. If he wins PA, then he's most likely up even more in every other swing state. That said, he could lose PA and still win the election as long as he holds what he won in 2016 other than PA and one more of the rust belt state and the faithless electors in Texas don't happen this time.

>if Trump wins PA he has a 75% chance of winning
No fucking shit but will PA turn red again?

same
i lied a bunch to the poll faggots

That's not how it works. The map is recaluclating things when you click the state. When you click PA red, it begins flipping some other states red like Wi. This is because if Biden is losing PA despite being up 6 or 7 points, it means something went seriously wrong and his victory in any of those states is now suspect.

States don't exist in a vacuum. They often go together.

The map is assuming if Biden loses PA, polling must be wrong across the board and thus adjusts his numbers down.

If you flip Texas blue on there, for instance, it immediately turns NC, GA and FL blue and puts biden at >99. You can't JUST turn Texas blue on the map. It moves a bunch of other states as well, because states don't exist in vacuums. You can also do shit like put PA red but TX blue, and Biden is at 99> again. Currently Trumps polling odds of winning PA are lower than Biden winning TX

If Trump loses PA he has less a shot of winning than I do of shitting out gold right now. FL, PA, and NC are must wins for Trump.

Sauce user

I hope my state goes Trump but honestly its pretty closely divided

Checked.

Massfag here. Please vote for Pa in my stead because I have no chance of flipping my state. I'm still gonna vote but your vote ACTUALLY matters more than mine, Please vote. :)

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Any evidence the polls are bullshit or artificial?

PA user here, I'll vote for Trump if you vote for Biden in MA

I am. I don't think he's gonna win here personally but I'll do my part

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I spent most of the last couple of days modeling up a bunch of results and I agree, he can win without it but if PA goes well, the rest of the election is going to be a blowout.

PA is now the new Ohio I guess.

Republicans are leading in early voting in Michigan and predicit shares for Michigan still over value Biden.

Digits of good trade.

PA is lost with the rampant fraud going on. With the votes rolling in 3 days after, and them now claiming that 9 million people registered, it's fucked.

538 is such a cringy soiboy website.

So, when they lose despite this, will it be fraud?

Checked.

No :)

Checked.

Trump doesn’t deserve to win Pennsylvania

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I did vote I voted for Biden, Biden will win

100%

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The big cities are all biden the outside country areas are all trump. Majority vote will be biden but trump will still won the state. Check em.

yeah i am voting
for biden

That's not how it works.

BOOBA

honest question here ameribros, leaving all biases aside : what do YOU feel like are the chances Trump wins again?
I see betting odds at around 2.60 which gives an approx 38% chances but what I don't like is that he's a betting underdog in most swing states.

>Believing Nate Plastic

thinking that biden will win PA, MI or WI is straight up delusion

around 9% or so, I'd wager. If you want me to meme and lie I'll just say 100%.

>Giving 538 (yous)

He's out of MOE in all those states, so, believing he loses them makes more sense as a delusion since it isn't based off anything scientific or anything besides how you "feel".

Ohio odds are only going more and more in drumpfs favor so id buy in quick its a sure thing.
Florida is the same way

Trump signs out number Biden 10 to 1 in PA. Biden’s fucked

Depends how many people lie to pollsters. The Traffalger group guy said the shy Trump voter is real because of social pressure to say you’re voting Biden.

I have a different theory. We’re not shy about our support for Trump. We lie because we hate the left and the left’s media shills. We like to build their hopes up and lull them into a false sense of security just so we can ruin their lives on Election Day.

That’s why I lie to pollsters anyway. I hate these people and want them to be miserable.

Why? Those states usually go blue, 2016 was a huge exception

2016 is most of this boards first election and it shows.

Unfortunately if this was real, we'd see huge differences in polling types, which we don't.

If this was a fair election and every state stopped counting votes on November 3rd at midnight, it would be Trump without question. It’s not, so we don’t know. Could be a tossup.

It’s funny you mention that. Amish and Mennonites actually have Trump signs in their yards. I’ve never seen them with any political signs before. I didn’t even think they were allowed to. I think that they think the apocalypse is coming if Dems win.

I'm not sure how making a new rule where votes only count up to TV time 9 pm EST Nov 3rd is fair, since it obviously favors some states and essentially removes elections entirely from others.

sorry, no idea, just found it on this chinese cartoon website a couple of days ago
no material evidence, just my gut feeling. also it's a demoralization tactic. don't they significantly oversample dems in most of them anyway?
hmmmm. i'll sleep on my bets tonight, maybe i'll go for it tomorrow.

If he wins Michigan, it's over.

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You mean stay red?

cmon BIDEN RIDERS...lets rev up our engines to run over trumpers on our way to the polling places...ZOOM ZOOM ZOOM...RIDIN WITHIN BIDEN

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So you're saying... that if Trump wins PA then he has a 75% chance to win everything else needed to win the election? Do you not understand if then statements?

>just my gut feeling
Not very scientific at all

Because Biden is +12 in MI so if he loses it at +12 that would be the greatest polling error in basically anything ever.

So you support the party that killed thousands of elderly, by going against cdc guidelines and placing infected elderly back with others in the nursing homes, not even using the costly facilities that sat vacant? The party that supported and condoned rioters that burned out small businesses of both Dem and Republicans? The party that supported commie marxist ?
No too bright are you? Guess you enjoy the boot on your neck, fool.

PA registered Democrat here. Voting for Trump and all Republicans down ticket.

>muh trump signs
>muh amish
face it yokels
PA is and always has been a state decided by the cities and the suburbs, no one cares how many trump signs you see in your tiny village or in the amish countryside

trump lost white college educated men & women in the suburbs he won last time. And turnout in the cities will be higher this year. trump has no chance

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