T-trumpbros??

For Trump

>world cup octopus

Nani?!?!

Even though Lichtman has Trump winning the majority of the 13 keys, he still has Biden winning for some reason, I don't know homie, I think this is gonna be a close one

Primary model is better.

Lichtman's 13 Keys predictive model:

1) Party Mandate: Democrat Advantage
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2) Contest: Republican Advantage
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3) Incumbency: Republican Advantage
The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4) Third party: Republican Advantage
There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5) Short-term economy: Democrat Advantage
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6) Long-term economy: Democrat Advantage
Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7) Policy change: Republican Advantage
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8) Social unrest: Democrat Advantage
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9) Scandal: Democrat Advantage
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10) Foreign/military failure: Republican Advantage
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11) Foreign/military success: Democrat Advantage
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12) Incumbent charisma: Republican Advantage
The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13) Challenger charisma: Republican Advantage
The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

A lot of these are debatable and just wrong.

For the uninitiated:

Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Challenger (party) charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

In 2000, he said Gore would win, but then he said he meant the popular vote. Then in 2016, he said Trump would win, but after the popular vote was tallied, he said he meant the electoral vote. The rugrat is just predicting coin flips and trying to salvage what credibility he has.

Attached: 220px-Portrait_of_Allan_Lichtman.jpg (220x220, 9.73K)

>CNN
Discarded

I was going to say. Clearly the model doesn't take pandemics into account. Kind of shit really. Basically, if it wasn't for covid, Trump would win most of this. Take away the "organic" riots and it's a complete landslide.

>Posts Cnn
Why do you act like a retard? Why, I hope the money was worth it.

Lichtman is an outright fraud
Manipulated his "key indicators" to fit the narrative
Changes his "Keys" approaching the election to guarantee "see I predicted it"
Said Obama Presidency was "Scandal Free" and Predicted Hillary win, then changed his mind on subjective keys
TOTAL FRAUD

didn't know this, thanks user, I just assumed that he was right in saying Trump would've won. What a flip-flopping fuck

Literally all Trump had to do to win was take covid seriously and he decided to be a gigantic fucking retard about it, so yeah. Not really sure what his plan was, he could be fucking coasting right now.

Not impressed at all. Hundreds of millions of people could do the same thing.

- Election every 4 years. 9 since OPs date.
- 4 had an incumbent involved that was expected to win handily. Most easy picks.
- OP impressed by a guy that manages to guess right on, at worst, a 50/50 question 5 whole times.

Trump will win.
t. human man just like the guy mentioned in the OP

Yeah Trump supposedly didn't have a military victory, but imho rekting ISIS counts as a pretty big fucking deal.

Ok to go over the 3 that I believe Lichtman incorrectly awarded to Biden:
>Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
Admittedly not his fault since the vid was made before, but Trump's recent brokerage of Middle Eastern peace deals definitely counts.
>Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
I honestly don't get why the liberal press think Trump can be blamed for the economic tanking thanks to COVID. The fact of the matter is it was doing well before, and under Trump, the US economy has not taken the same hit as many other countries. People have not forgotten his successes here, and nobody seriously blames Trump for the COVID-related economic downturn.

Those are two clear wins for Trump. As for the 3rd I'd award Trump, there's not a specific single one, but three of the keys Lichtman gave Biden are incredibly contentious. Those 3 are:
>Incumbent (party) charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Trump is divisive and some of the stuff he said can make your skin crawl, but overall his rallies for this election are full of optimism and winning energy
>Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Short-term economy HAS taken a downturn, which was Lichtman's justification for awarding this to Biden. However, it all goes back to whether people seriously blame Trump for COVID.
>...
Forgot what the third was, but in all, even if we were to flip one of those latter 2 that'd give Trump 9 to 4. If you disagree, Trump still has 8 to 5, by Lichtman's own rules.

>5) Short-term economy: Democrat Advantage
>The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
>11) Foreign/military success: Democrat Advantage
>The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

These two are not just arguably wrong, they are dead wrong.

The economy is still recovering despite being devastated by a pandemic. Republican advantage.

Foreign success: peace deals going on 100% make it a republican advantage. No new wars in this term 100% make it a republican advantage.

Paul the octopus

Thnx for explanation

C-C-CNN??

>Trump foreign policy
not to mention the no new wars, stuff with NK and as you said, recent stuff in the ME. Foreign policy is so good for Trump and it's why it didn't come up in the debates
>Economy
The GDP thing came out today showing historic growth too. Journos like NYT already saying "why historic numbers might not actually be good" lmao.

>cnn
>woman
double kek

The number of possible combinations for predictions since 1984 isnt that large. Im sure you could find plenty of professors to cover every possible combination. Also
>lifelong public charge has an opinion
>lichtman

Lichtman predicted Hilary and Trump at different times in 2016. Easy to always be right when you bet both sides.

I agree and thought the same things as I watched the original NYT video on his prediction for 2020

welp thats it pack it in boys we better not vote because theres no reason to now i mean he predicted it, its over

He made the mistake of listening to experts like the WHO and Fauchi.

Yeah, some of the keys like charisma are completely subjective and bullshit, and you can't blame the covid recession on Trump.You also consider the dissolution of ISIS a military success.

>CNN

Attached: maxresdefault.jpg (1280x720, 110.44K)

checked

opinion disregarded, digits revoked.

This. I don’t know about 9 but he clearly should have the majority of the keys and this faggot isn’t applying his system very well. He gave the economy to Biden as if COVID isn’t temporary and all other aspects of Trumps economy is strong. He literally said Trump doesn’t get the economy key due to COVID. Gay.