How far are we from the kind of tech that's in this book? For those that haven't read it, I'm talking about practical, ubiquitous AR, augmented reality. In the book, essentially everyone has non-intrusive, wearable computers in their clothes that produce images on contacts, and the input consists of specific eye-movement and by moving other parts of the body in certain ways. It's so powerful and comes so natural to the people in the setting that they function like they have the calculator software and all the other tools in their brains. On their way to work, as they look around, they see their favorite fictional setting on top off the real world, in a safe way. And everything's connected to the network. Will 5G make this stuff possible? Great book, by the way.
Rainbow's End
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Stare deeply into Eric Schmidt's pocked-marked face, and you shall receive the answer.
Won't the Chinese be in the lead in 5-10 years?
The 5g is deadly and extremely radioactive.
Forgot to sage yet again.
Bump since this is interesting and Vinge is great.
Society is going to devolve.
It already is devolving.
unz.com
And don't think China can fill this gap: they're following the same path and making the same mistakes the West did - fertility, jobs, economy, society: they won't lead anything.
The future will be regressive technologically, but tech will become much more invasive before that, specially because it will be used as a placeholder to solve a multitude of manufactured problems of modernity and the late bureaucratic state.
If this is true or not, now that we have some cover for it, it simply revealed to be:
1. Extremely hard to get signal for it
2. Unstable, easy to lost signal
People are already saying we will need a massive infrastructure of towers to provide signal, because it slips and is week.
Seems like a dead technology to me.
In fact, it's about time we get rid of Radio and TV frequencies and unify everything under a single internet long band.
That would solve all the problems, and we would get better signal than we could've ever imagined.
We'll never have any of that.
The future is going to be a dystopian hell and everywhere will turn into a wasteland a la Mad Max.
Good AR isn't more than a decade away, man. China won't be feeling pain from their disastrous mismanagement of their demographics for a generation or two.
China's success depends on its low standard of living tied to its exporting powerhouse.
There's a massive pressure there today to raise these standards, but the government is cutting this process short all the time.
It isn't working that well though, and China's labour is increasing in value, which is making companies leave the place in favour of India, Southeast Asia and Oceania - the consequences for the Chinese economy are already showing, and even without Trump (which just accelerated things), the Chinese economy is shifting from a producer to a consumer economy incredibly fast.
Jobs are already slowing down there, having this year as the first one where jobs are lacking. Home prices are falling for the first time ever, killing the construction and real state industry.
China is suffering from a "Japanefication" pretty fast and can't do anything about it.
It built its house on Exporting, contrary to the West original model (it doesn't use it any longer, the American System/Cameralism) model of focusing on itself, it followed the Japanese model of "catching up with the big guys by making the country investable for western companies".
This strategy is falling short. Japan invested heavily in its nascent national companies because it predicted Western companies would leave the place, but China is doing it too late, it even had to make industrial espionage, and its national companies are small in quantity, most of them will fail when the tides turn.
China knew that too late in the game, because it focused too much on Communist bullshitery and didn't understand how market forces worked.
Then, to remedy that it started its Belt-and-Road initiative, the new "Silk Road", where China would develop its surrounding countries heavily with infrastructure, but would condemn them to a life of servitude through debt - in that way, they could dominate the new "Chinas" arising from poor countries and suck them dry of their money, to compensate them stealing China's industries for themselves and that way maintaining a high standard of living in China (otherwise, it will fall, it will tank hard).
But this is kinda not working. First, countries welcomed China with open arms and a smile on their faces, but now they know the price of that (countries woke up to the scam pretty fast, kinda odd), and some sort of Chinaphobia is rising in the countries around it.
Things are going smoothly for China, but neither the in West.
Things are dire everywhere.
So India will end up an Economic Superpower by post-US election/collapse 2020 after all?
No, it seems that this time there won't be "a" country all investment goes this time. India is taking a lot from China, but Southeast Asia and Oceania are as well.
Remember the "Asian Tigers"? Things like that.
Things AREN'T going well for China
Sorry for the typo.
Also, China launched the "Petroyuan" to fight the Petrodollar in a move analogous to the USA one in the Nixon Shock era.
Just to put things in perspective, the USA needed 100 years to arrive at this point, while China is doing that in less than 30.
This is not a good sign, this is a sign that China is completing the cycle of doom at a faster pace.
How is the Republic of China doing in comparison?
Haven't I laid out the gist of the situation?
China has some decade before crashing like the West, that is if it continues its current path.
If Belt & Road succeeds, then in fact we'll see a new Gilded Age for China of prosper, better than anything before.
The Chinese government knows that, the path in front of them is bifurcated into extreme success and failure.
Failure is doing everything as it is now, and Success is the new Silk Road and debt-clientelism.
But you see, China's Silk Road push so far has made:
1. Countries get angry at it due to the Debt-trap.
2. Countries defaulting on their debts and making China's effort useless.
3. In Africa it has been going well to an extent, as it accepts Raw Material, Commodities, etc as payments, and the African countries willingly pay it. But the Chinese are having a huge workload for that, as they have to create infrastructure from zero and even make some of its citizens emigrate there to run things, as Africans can't run the Chinese development operation by themselves.
4. Even still, some African countries are aware that this is a Chinese exploration trap.
So, will the Silk Road succeed? No one knows, it's getting mixed results so far.
Actually, you could call their "Belt and Road", their "Silk Road" initiative as "Chinese Imperialism".
He was asking about Taiwan.
Taiwan can't do much of anything.
China's grasp on it will only intensify as it descends into a state of poor economic development.
Hong Kong's fate is the same.
China will overreach, these two are as good as held, the doubt remain on others.
About their economic fate under China: the same.
Wouldn't their endemic semiconductor industry benefit from an economic downturn in Commie China?
Anyone want to talk about the future of AR or the likelihood of the predictions in the book?
No, because it will eventually leave. For the same reason the West deindustrialized and China fears in the future.
Higher standards of living push the price of products too high, making them hard to export.
Things will keep moving to the shitworld, and the southeast Laos-Thailand-Cambodia-Vietnam is long overdue for a boom because of that.
For instance, they became the largest Coffee producers recently, because competition (mainly Brazil) has too high a price of labour to compete, so big corporations invested there.
In a way, the search for profit maximization will tend to produce this effect of wealth spread, taking factories and industries from one country to another if the other is a cheaper place.
In Libertarian theory, this would create an homeostasis in the world, leveling every country to a single standard.
But we all know Libertarian economics are bullshit, and this is not what happens, as the deindustrialized country plunges in a spiral of degrowth, recession, massive bankrupicies, etc
This has been long overdue to happen in the West, but it is using financial mechanisms to be kept afloat. Thing is, these mechanisms aren't real solutions, and like a painkiller, it just masks the pain, but not the cause of the pain.
China's exporting economy is being bitten heavily by that also, as its main importers are not importing things anymore (there's a global economic slowdown occuring).
So again it has to ponder about its future as exporter.
That's why the European Union exists, by the way.
Germany's currency would be valued a lot higher if not for making a union with poorer countries, that push the value of the Euro down and make German exports being of a lower value than they actually are, making Germany competitive.
And that's why the end of the EU is dire for some countries, but would be glorious for others. (Well, that's not the only reason, there are many, but this one here is pretty great).
But well, a solution to all that would be a return to a national-focused economy. China could easily escape this trap if it decided to shift from an exporter economy to an economy focused on the domestic market.
China can be basically self-sufficient in everything if it wants (except energy, but that's why it's such a close friend of Russia [gas giant] and Iran [oil giant]), that's why it wants a Silk Road through Central and NorthCentral Asia, full of pipelines.
The same goes for other countries - historically, every country has always been self-sufficient, and this trend of contagion and dependency is manufactured from modern global dynamics.
It doesn't need to be like that.
So economies could prosper if they focused more on producing locally for themselves than to export Apples to Germany so that they can import cars from them (yes, I'm talking to you, Poland). Let the Germans plant their own apple trees, and let the Poles build their own cars.
This would, at first, create a huge unbalance of technology in the world, standards of living would flip and many people globally would be worse off.
But this would pay in the long run, as countries would develop and become independent in the future and this fake homeostasis dynamics would end.
Of course, it's not that simple and I have much more to say about this matter, but I have spoken enough.
The book is fictional crap, kiddo
No but it'll fry off your brains with 1.000.000V/m radiation beamed at you're skull constantly in a form of electronic harassment and will later destroy your blood-brain barrier permanently.
Good luck inhaling that nanomachine.
Here some links (there are many, but I'm on my phone)
zerohedge.com
zerohedge.com
zerohedge.com
zerohedge.com
Investment is slowly outing of China as its standards of living rise. China completed the Industrialization process super fast, but it's also entering a Deindustrialization one even faster.
The world of the future will be a slow decent into shit, as dead economies will grasp at straws trying to stay afloat, at the cost of its own populations.
Things will regress greatly.
Chart related is one reason why people who chose the Zig Forums career actually chose the wrong one, and in fact going to Medical School or becoming a College Professor are the correct choices. (Or a public worker).
And why people have a fake perception of things progressing.
Yes. Also the inevitable polar shift will freeze most of the North Americas.
I guess if westies like to risk - they'll go for the demonize China card again and this time with "falun gong terrorist" or some shit and go full head-on for a war the west won't even win. But it won't work even if you implant extremists; there will be language barriers too.
Energy sector > Health/pharma sector >=< Food sector (incl. agri/aqua/culture and animal husbandry).
The big three might switch depending on the topology.
The rest that isn't shtf-tier is shit-tier.
Also with the heavily surveilled authoritarian state - how can glownigs even compete? Even the top of the class Mossad agent cannot destabilize any part of the country that's why they only do it on surrounding or thirdworld shitholes though it's futile and have no value to empower glownig state whatsoever
You haven't even read it, lad.
You haven't even know reality, lad
I wonder what kind of economic shifts the establishment of a mostly self-sustaining O'Neill colony at one of the Lagrangian points of the Earth-Moon system would bring forth.
Would globohomos try and outsource Space manufacture+launching to the Colony considering how easy it would be?
Would whatever superpower that built the Colony in the first place put heavy taxes on the Colonists amid price fixing in order to effectively monopolize the market for rare earth elements cheaply mined from near-earth objects?
sage for off topic
Earth would become a Commodity exporter and the Space would rule with a OverCaste of fully automated industrial civilization.
This economic mechanism produces a race to the bottom: who's willing to pay the less, with the lowest conditions and protections, wins.
5 bags of popcorn
S-so space piracy would be viable then?
I don't know.
We're talking 100% automation here, so the only piracy would be from the resistance groups of earth pillaging the space colonies.
This if Earthlings were capable of that, which is not likely due to their condition.
And this considering that the space wouldn't be able to defeat rogue bands of idiots.
Which means, it's not good fiction because it's unfeasible without bullshit, deus ex machina or sloppy permissive writing.
But when I was referring to the mechanism, I was talking instead about Globalization, current and real, not in a fictional context.
...
So you mean to say that fiction is crap and people shouldn't mistake how reality works for how fiction works?
Tell that to OP, or to most adults in the developed world.
Hard to say. A lot of people can notice the world and the economy is broken, but it's broken in such a complicated way that very few people actually understand why or how.
I'm sure we have it now but a phone is all that's necessary at this point. The loosening of restrictions on recreational drugs is the next likely step towards keeping people entertained. Anything else is too much work.
It's not hard to say once you understand the mechanisms.
For instance, reading "The Lost Science of Money, by Stephen Zarlenga" clarifies much, and then "Web of Debt, by Ellen Brown".
Of course, then you need to know Market Mechanics, just like Physics.
You link the knowledge and you're done.
Books available here:
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HAPAS ARE SUPERIOR TO WHITES
Something like a 3rd of every CPU is government property in that novel.
It's basically a Chinese-survalience (only worse) level society, but less authoritarian/draconian.
Vernor wrote it a couple years after 9/11 IIRC, and tried to imagine how societies would addapt to the threat of terrorism in a high-tech society that makes it easy for individuals to cause lots of damage.
He envisioned all hardware and software requiring backdoors as I've stated. I find it funny that intel ME came out around a year later. This means intel was probably developing that stuff while he was writing the novel.
I have to wonder if he had friends on the inside who straight up told him what they were doing and why,
HAPAS ARE SUPERIOR TO WHITES
HAPAS ARE SUPERIOR TO WHITES
HAPAS ARE SUPERIOR TO WHITES
Lots of shills in this thread.
Wow. Just wow.
Europeons need to burn in a tar-pit. Disgusting
Europeons need to burn in a tar-pit. Disgusting
Why is there so much racism in this thread?