Http://chinaheritage.net/journal/chinas-red-empire-to-be-or-not-to-be/

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Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China
marketwatch.com/story/can-investors-afford-to-shrug-off-chinas-credit-downgrade-2017-05-24

I don't want to be "that guy", but seeing this doublethink where the Party OPENLY (this is the key) manipulates "the China story" to deny Chinese imperialism and expansionism and declares the Chinese a peace-loving people, at odds with both historical reality and current actions, makes me really scared given the increasing Chinese prominence in international affairs.

China has effectively fulfilled the premise of fascism, combining a ML political model with a corporatist economic model, and it seems there's no way out of it. If their influence keeps growing as western liberal democracies collapse, and they wish to impose this system upon their tributary states, there won't be a way out of it for us either

Trapped in such a system, the only way out of it would be through internal reform, which would require activists to keep their ideas hidden and play the role of yes-men while rising in the hierarchy through decades. It was either socialism or barbarism, and we chose barbarism
gg no re

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A war between the NATO west and China might destroy any faith in non-revolutionary politics enough for revolution to be possible.

Am I on fox news dot com?

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We can only hope that our Space Comrades intervene and rescue us after the nuclear holocaust, when all traces of Stalinism disappear and they present us with Intergalactic Socialism

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If we survive than revolution will be guaranteed. WW1 destroyed the empires of old. It can happen again.

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LOL kill yourself China is going to build the backbone of eurasian socialism thru the new Silk Road

China has had uninterrupted economic growth since 1988, they are in their growth period of capitalism. Once this period ends and their market economy naturally busts, suddenly China's government runs out of money (either tax revenue from taxpayers or sales from customers via state owned companies) and has to start making decisions between paying out pensions or paying out investors' debts. If history is any guide, they will chose the latter because if they refuse to pay investors then their entire economy and government collapses as companies, then banks, then the government (who owns the banks) declares bankruptcy. At this point Beijing would have to impose full communism and make all the new companies workers collectives or coops. In this case Imperialism stops because workers will vote against it because they don't want to pay for it.

More likely, they'll simply cut workers off and create another massive economic crisis but save their zombie companies, banks and other firms. This will lead to most of China rotting away like Detroit has since their 2013 bankruptcy, with their companies existing in a permanent state of distress (but alive) under a mountain of debt. By the time those firms start going bankrupt Carillon-style China will be facing a major political crisis like the UK currently is.

In other words, China's model is not sustainable because capitalism is not sustainable. Either they choose to kill it and not become fascist imperialists or they instigate a much longer downfall. China was already there in 1988 but through capitalism pushed it off for a generation, if it happens again they won't be able to play the capitalism card again.

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Chinese growth will probably slow down to a 1-2% growth rate per year, as they start maxing out growth. They will first become a first world country, and in general the average Chinese will have a high quality of life. Thy will do a lot of Imperialist shit currently done by America to sustain their capitalist economy, but don’t expect a crash from there. Just stagnation.

Western observers have been constantly predicting the collapse of China for the last 30 years but they always manage to adapt, thanks to their corporatist structure the government can very effortlessly direct investment, like it's doing now with renewables, so I'm kind of skeptical of a great unpredictable crisis occurring. Even when it comes to pension crisis, despite the natural reverence for their ancestors euthanasia should be coming any time, and people without social utility will likely be pressured in one way or another to commit assisted suicide, 1 out of every 4 deaths in the Netherlands are already from it, and it's applied even to people that merely suffer from depression.

If their society remains as malleable as it currently is, by controlling the flow of information, it's only a matter of time until the people defend the Party for its own sake, and justify any of its atrocities, that's the point of no return I'm afraid of tbh fam

Just how many consumers can global capitalism support? Where are the use-values necessary to give that many people a First World lifestyle going to come from?

A colapse is unlikely, but a slowdown is. It always happens to capitalist countries as they become fully developed. China is no longer in double digit GDP growth that they have had for thirty years.

Technology and Africa

Ah yes, it's the "governments are just like families" assumption again. Protip: families don't have printing presses in their basement.

No, they grew. In the early 00s they grew their way out of the US's dotcom bubble and in 2008 they relaxed credit requirements to get more money into their markets, creating a massive pile of debt that is now killing them. It's exactly what the US did in the 2000s and Japan in the 80s, both culminated with stock crashes.

To your point about "renewables": China's government did that in an attempt to crash solar prices worldwide so they could capture and monopolize the market. Every other country (including the US under Obama) saw what they were doing and then began tarriffing them leaving piles of unsold panels that crashed their domestic prices, making new investment/production within them untenable. This is the limit of a command economy, as these companies area now saddled with debt but also unable to sell new product. However, this did not stop China from building more coal capacity in 2018 than the entire US has which is strongly indicative of a lack of planning oversight (why would a country that has piles of unsold panels build new coal?). This doesn't even touch upon all the imported nuclear reactors and fuel they use (most of which is from the US and Japan) or the bankruptcy of the state oil company (which happens because China couldn't manage to steal property fracking tech from US or Russian drillers).

At every point it spells bad news, the question is when.


That doesn't work IRL. The social contract only works if loyalty is rewarded with luxury, so far this has worked well in China as it worked everywhere else on earth. But the moment the unlimited money runs out is when austerity happens, which is when the government can't just pay everyone off and must make choices. This is exactly when workers realize they are fucked and when the party circles the wagons around the military and then buy time using fear. Either way it ends with China librealizing into a western country, burning down into a North Korea tier mess (keyword being "burn"), or adopting full socialism.

Then hyperinflation occurs and China becomes a new Wiemar Republic, including the part where another Hitler/Mao rises and completely obliterates what came before. There's a reason why competent capitalists don't pull this option.

(also to your point, capitalists can do it and often do so when they split their stock options to drop the price to entice new money. This is perfectly legal and is often done)

You seem to be pretty informed about the subject, what do you think is most likely? Also, do you have any online articles about this?

Hyperinflation is actually much easier to resolve with monetary controls than regular inflation. There's more to the Wiemar Republic's problem than printing lots of money. You need to read up on modern monetarism/chartalism.

To be a bit clearer for the theorylets, what causes hyperinflation isn't debt or issuing money to pay debt, it's whether or not debt is denominated in the currency being issued.

In the case of China, while nearly all of their foreign ("external") debt is also denominated in foreign currencies (mostly USD), this foreign debt makes up only a fraction of China's total debt compared to domestic borrowing:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China
Which is entirely denominated in Yuan:
marketwatch.com/story/can-investors-afford-to-shrug-off-chinas-credit-downgrade-2017-05-24

Hyperinflation happened in Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe for the sole reason that their debt was primarily denominated in foreign currency.

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Hello Nicolas Maduro.

China is just doing what every other economy does - expand into capitalism and benefit tremendously until one day capitalism stops working (due to it's inherent contradictions) and everything crashes into the ground. This is what happened to America in 2008 and Japan in 1988, and now China in 2018. In all three cases there was major speculation in real estate in particular, leading to unprofitable low-quality housing being built and sold at high prices to subprime borrowers along with major tech speculation (although in the US's case the bubble popped in 2000, leading to Bush's homeowner economy) as these are the two areas that both conservative and aggressive investors respectively flock to.

This is literally Marxist theory in action, and why the greatest test of China's ruling part is if they stick to Marxism or not when it all comes crashing down. I mention GM and Detroit's bankruptcies because that's where this ends, with seemingly invincible companies melting down as investors raid workers' retirements with government officials doing the same thing to public employees in the following municipal bankruptcies. Factories that produced state-of-the-art Hummers and Cadillacs closed, scrapped their assets and left the building - the same will soon apply to factories that make semiconductors and TVs. Meanwhile service-oriented companies simply melt apart as they usually don't have anything worth liquidating.

Venezuela's inflation problems aren't from debt, it's their bizarre neither-fish-nor-fowl currency exchange system, in which they have simultaneously pumped insane amounts of money into the purchase of foreign currency supposedly earmarked for specific industries, and allowed legal ownership of large amounts of foreign currency by private citizens, creating the perfect environment for corruption and smuggling to thrive.

Thus, unlike use of issuance to pay down debts denominated in domestic currency, which can be deflated away with the flick of a pen by taxing away the issuance, Venezuela is spending their issuance on people that don't have to pay taxes in Bolivars.

This contrasts both with the floating exchanges used by most countries, and China, where the disposition of both Yuan and foreign currencies inside and outside China is strictly, unambiguously controlled.