Http://chinaheritage.net/journal/chinas-red-empire-to-be-or-not-to-be/

Ryan Roberts
Ryan Roberts

Two millennia of dynastic rule had bequeathed to modern China a rich corpus of imperial practice, language, ideas and stratagems. […] Mao, his comrades and their propagandists consciously employed imperial metaphors and made grandiloquent gestures familiar from the country’s past. The Party Chairman was also an avid reader of historical works and classical texts and he masterfully applied […] ‘the dark arts of the emperors’, to manipulate his comrades and dominate the Communist Party.

This imperial aegis was not limited to the territory of China […], Party leaders, in particular Mao, formulated a global role for Beijing. As scientific socialists who believe that they were fulfilling the inexorable promise of history, they were confident that Beijing was at the centre of an unfolding world revolution. […] Efforts were made both to export Mao Zedong Thought and its model for revolution as well as to build up a global alliance of what Mao would eventually call ‘Third World Countries’ in Asia, Africa and Latin America, or 亞非拉 in the shorthand of the time. The strategy was summed up in the seemingly anodyne formulation ‘We Have Friends All Over the World’ 我們的朋友遍天下. This Mao-era enterprise, along with an expanded ambition, not to mention a much stronger economy and military, has been considerably reinvigorated under Xi Jinping (one should point out that it was hardly in abeyance during the Deng-Jiang-Hu decades). Given the post-dynastic history of twentieth-century China, therefore, it is hardly surprising that, to this day, people are alert to and wary of what is known as ‘the imperial mindset’ 帝王思想.

From 2013, ‘Community of Shared Destiny’ has been Beijing’s shorthand for its global presence. As I wrote in the 2014 China Story Yearbook, which took ‘Shared Destiny’ as its theme, the expression: provides substance and diplomatic architecture to the revived concept of All-Under-Heaven or tianxia 天下, one which assumes a belief that China can be a moral, political and economic great power.

I also quoted the historian Wang Gungwu who was upbeat about the prospects for a modern vision of tianxia promoted by China in the twenty-first century: This would not be linked to the ancient Chinese empire. Instead, China could be viewed as a large multinational state that accepts the framework of a modern tianxia based on rules of equality and sovereignty in the international system today.

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Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China
marketwatch.com/story/can-investors-afford-to-shrug-off-chinas-credit-downgrade-2017-05-24
mega.nz/#F!DpAz2IgQ!nW7bPNnpJFk5CAV3ypiaHw
youtube.com/watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ

Elijah Ortiz
Elijah Ortiz

I don't want to be "that guy", but seeing this doublethink where the Party OPENLY (this is the key) manipulates "the China story" to deny Chinese imperialism and expansionism and declares the Chinese a peace-loving people, at odds with both historical reality and current actions, makes me really scared given the increasing Chinese prominence in international affairs.

China has effectively fulfilled the premise of fascism, combining a ML political model with a corporatist economic model, and it seems there's no way out of it. If their influence keeps growing as western liberal democracies collapse, and they wish to impose this system upon their tributary states, there won't be a way out of it for us either

Trapped in such a system, the only way out of it would be through internal reform, which would require activists to keep their ideas hidden and play the role of yes-men while rising in the hierarchy through decades. It was either socialism or barbarism, and we chose barbarism
gg no re

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Ethan Kelly
Ethan Kelly

A war between the NATO west and China might destroy any faith in non-revolutionary politics enough for revolution to be possible.

Caleb Morgan
Caleb Morgan

a hot war
between nuclear powers
between powers that are at this point highly interdependent economically speaking
Am I on fox news dot com?

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Logan Cooper
Logan Cooper

We can only hope that our Space Comrades intervene and rescue us after the nuclear holocaust, when all traces of Stalinism disappear and they present us with Intergalactic Socialism

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Andrew Ross
Andrew Ross

If we survive than revolution will be guaranteed. WW1 destroyed the empires of old. It can happen again.

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Adam Wilson
Adam Wilson

LOL kill yourself China is going to build the backbone of eurasian socialism thru the new Silk Road

Justin Kelly
Justin Kelly

and it seems there's no way out of it.

China has had uninterrupted economic growth since 1988, they are in their growth period of capitalism. Once this period ends and their market economy naturally busts, suddenly China's government runs out of money (either tax revenue from taxpayers or sales from customers via state owned companies) and has to start making decisions between paying out pensions or paying out investors' debts. If history is any guide, they will chose the latter because if they refuse to pay investors then their entire economy and government collapses as companies, then banks, then the government (who owns the banks) declares bankruptcy. At this point Beijing would have to impose full communism and make all the new companies workers collectives or coops. In this case Imperialism stops because workers will vote against it because they don't want to pay for it.

More likely, they'll simply cut workers off and create another massive economic crisis but save their zombie companies, banks and other firms. This will lead to most of China rotting away like Detroit has since their 2013 bankruptcy, with their companies existing in a permanent state of distress (but alive) under a mountain of debt. By the time those firms start going bankrupt Carillon-style China will be facing a major political crisis like the UK currently is.

In other words, China's model is not sustainable because capitalism is not sustainable. Either they choose to kill it and not become fascist imperialists or they instigate a much longer downfall. China was already there in 1988 but through capitalism pushed it off for a generation, if it happens again they won't be able to play the capitalism card again.

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Camden Gomez
Camden Gomez

Chinese growth will probably slow down to a 1-2% growth rate per year, as they start maxing out growth. They will first become a first world country, and in general the average Chinese will have a high quality of life. Thy will do a lot of Imperialist shit currently done by America to sustain their capitalist economy, but don’t expect a crash from there. Just stagnation.

Noah Flores
Noah Flores

Western observers have been constantly predicting the collapse of China for the last 30 years but they always manage to adapt, thanks to their corporatist structure the government can very effortlessly direct investment, like it's doing now with renewables, so I'm kind of skeptical of a great unpredictable crisis occurring. Even when it comes to pension crisis, despite the natural reverence for their ancestors euthanasia should be coming any time, and people without social utility will likely be pressured in one way or another to commit assisted suicide, 1 out of every 4 deaths in the Netherlands are already from it, and it's applied even to people that merely suffer from depression.

If their society remains as malleable as it currently is, by controlling the flow of information, it's only a matter of time until the people defend the Party for its own sake, and justify any of its atrocities, that's the point of no return I'm afraid of tbh fam

Brandon Davis
Brandon Davis

They will first become a first world country, and in general the average Chinese will have a high quality of life.
Just how many consumers can global capitalism support? Where are the use-values necessary to give that many people a First World lifestyle going to come from?

Oliver Johnson
Oliver Johnson

Western observers have been constantly predicting the collapse of China for the last 30 years but they always manage to adapt, thanks to their corporatist structure the government can very effortlessly direct investment, like it's doing now with renewables, so I'm kind of skeptical of a great unpredictable crisis occurring. Even when it comes to pension crisis, despite the natural reverence for their ancestors euthanasia should be coming any time, and people without social utility will likely be pressured in one way or another to commit assisted suicide, 1 out of every 4 deaths in the Netherlands are already from it, and it's applied even to people that merely suffer from depression.
A colapse is unlikely, but a slowdown is. It always happens to capitalist countries as they become fully developed. China is no longer in double digit GDP growth that they have had for thirty years.
Where are the use-values necessary to give that many people a First World lifestyle going to come from?
Technology and Africa

Ayden Miller
Ayden Miller

government (who owns the banks) declares bankruptcy
Ah yes, it's the "governments are just like families" assumption again. Protip: families don't have printing presses in their basement.

Joshua Gonzalez
Joshua Gonzalez

manage to adapt

No, they grew. In the early 00s they grew their way out of the US's dotcom bubble and in 2008 they relaxed credit requirements to get more money into their markets, creating a massive pile of debt that is now killing them. It's exactly what the US did in the 2000s and Japan in the 80s, both culminated with stock crashes.

To your point about "renewables": China's government did that in an attempt to crash solar prices worldwide so they could capture and monopolize the market. Every other country (including the US under Obama) saw what they were doing and then began tarriffing them leaving piles of unsold panels that crashed their domestic prices, making new investment/production within them untenable. This is the limit of a command economy, as these companies area now saddled with debt but also unable to sell new product. However, this did not stop China from building more coal capacity in 2018 than the entire US has which is strongly indicative of a lack of planning oversight (why would a country that has piles of unsold panels build new coal?). This doesn't even touch upon all the imported nuclear reactors and fuel they use (most of which is from the US and Japan) or the bankruptcy of the state oil company (which happens because China couldn't manage to steal property fracking tech from US or Russian drillers).

At every point it spells bad news, the question is when.

If their society remains as malleable as it currently is, by controlling the flow of information, it's only a matter of time until the people defend the Party for its own sake, and justify any of its atrocities, that's the point of no return I'm afraid of tbh fam

That doesn't work IRL. The social contract only works if loyalty is rewarded with luxury, so far this has worked well in China as it worked everywhere else on earth. But the moment the unlimited money runs out is when austerity happens, which is when the government can't just pay everyone off and must make choices. This is exactly when workers realize they are fucked and when the party circles the wagons around the military and then buy time using fear. Either way it ends with China librealizing into a western country, burning down into a North Korea tier mess (keyword being "burn"), or adopting full socialism.

Jayden Gray
Jayden Gray

Then hyperinflation occurs and China becomes a new Wiemar Republic, including the part where another Hitler/Mao rises and completely obliterates what came before. There's a reason why competent capitalists don't pull this option.

(also to your point, capitalists can do it and often do so when they split their stock options to drop the price to entice new money. This is perfectly legal and is often done)

Easton Ross
Easton Ross

Either way it ends with China librealizing into a western country, burning down into a North Korea tier mess (keyword being "burn"), or adopting full socialism.
You seem to be pretty informed about the subject, what do you think is most likely? Also, do you have any online articles about this?

Easton Diaz
Easton Diaz

Hyperinflation is actually much easier to resolve with monetary controls than regular inflation. There's more to the Wiemar Republic's problem than printing lots of money. You need to read up on modern monetarism/chartalism.

Benjamin Davis
Benjamin Davis

read up on MMT
To be a bit clearer for the theorylets, what causes hyperinflation isn't debt or issuing money to pay debt, it's whether or not debt is denominated in the currency being issued.

In the case of China, while nearly all of their foreign ("external") debt is also denominated in foreign currencies (mostly USD), this foreign debt makes up only a fraction of China's total debt compared to domestic borrowing:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_China
Which is entirely denominated in Yuan:
marketwatch.com/story/can-investors-afford-to-shrug-off-chinas-credit-downgrade-2017-05-24

Hyperinflation happened in Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe for the sole reason that their debt was primarily denominated in foreign currency.

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Brody Jackson
Brody Jackson

If you have debt denominated in your own currency you can just print money forever XD

Hello Nicolas Maduro.

Mason Collins
Mason Collins

China is just doing what every other economy does - expand into capitalism and benefit tremendously until one day capitalism stops working (due to it's inherent contradictions) and everything crashes into the ground. This is what happened to America in 2008 and Japan in 1988, and now China in 2018. In all three cases there was major speculation in real estate in particular, leading to unprofitable low-quality housing being built and sold at high prices to subprime borrowers along with major tech speculation (although in the US's case the bubble popped in 2000, leading to Bush's homeowner economy) as these are the two areas that both conservative and aggressive investors respectively flock to.

This is literally Marxist theory in action, and why the greatest test of China's ruling part is if they stick to Marxism or not when it all comes crashing down. I mention GM and Detroit's bankruptcies because that's where this ends, with seemingly invincible companies melting down as investors raid workers' retirements with government officials doing the same thing to public employees in the following municipal bankruptcies. Factories that produced state-of-the-art Hummers and Cadillacs closed, scrapped their assets and left the building - the same will soon apply to factories that make semiconductors and TVs. Meanwhile service-oriented companies simply melt apart as they usually don't have anything worth liquidating.

Carter Stewart
Carter Stewart

Venezuela's inflation problems aren't from debt, it's their bizarre neither-fish-nor-fowl currency exchange system, in which they have simultaneously pumped insane amounts of money into the purchase of foreign currency supposedly earmarked for specific industries, and allowed legal ownership of large amounts of foreign currency by private citizens, creating the perfect environment for corruption and smuggling to thrive.

Thus, unlike use of issuance to pay down debts denominated in domestic currency, which can be deflated away with the flick of a pen by taxing away the issuance, Venezuela is spending their issuance on people that don't have to pay taxes in Bolivars.

This contrasts both with the floating exchanges used by most countries, and China, where the disposition of both Yuan and foreign currencies inside and outside China is strictly, unambiguously controlled.

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