The forecasting of political trends

Anons, when I tell you that futurology is important, I am not asking you to write entertaining science fiction. I am not asking you to write wargames or even detailed forecasting simulations.

Soldiers and statesmen must think about several possible future scenarios in order to organize their real-world assets in a resilient fashion.

For example, it is possible that the white gene pool might expand due to baby booms in white populations. Thinking about such a scenario invites productive questions such as "Which white countries have the best fertility trends right now in the real world? How are they using resources to encourage fertility?"

By contrast, it is also possible that the white gene pool might decline to a fraction of its current size in as little as 20 years. This invites productive questions such as "Which white women are failing to have children? Which white children are too unhealthy to breed grandchildren?"

When writing futurology scenarios, you can start with a specific possible event and then envision multiple contrasting consequences. E.g. suppose President Trump succeeds in sealing the USA's southern border by some combination of walls, fences, guards, dogs, etc.

Possibility 1: The USA has lower drug crime and human trafficking. The soy boy population surrenders their old loyalties to the left and takes up healthier hobbies.

Possibility 2: The USA has lower drug crime and human trafficking. The soy boy population is enraged by a lack of degenerate vice and takes up violent crimes against respectable people.

Possibility 3: The USA has steady drug crime and human trafficking because the wall stimulates drug cartels to find more innovative smuggling routes. In the long run, crime goes up.

Possibility 4: The USA has lower drug crime, but the unemployed drug dealers arm themselves with 3-D printed guns and turn to freelance violent crime. The murder rate goes up. Bans on 3-D printing further harm the USA's economy.

Movements such as France's Yellow Jackets present various possibilities for futurological speculation. Regardless of whether they crush Macron or Macron crushes them, the balance of power in Europe will be changed.

The purpose of futurology is not just to fantasize about emotionally exciting future worlds. The purpose is to analyze possible futures for their key factors and then apply that analysis to the present-day real world.

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Other urls found in this thread:

guides.loc.gov/14th-amendment
8ch.net/qresearch/res/5226186.html#q5226912
qz.com/698990/261-ways-to-refer-to-the-tiananmen-square-massacre-in-china/
chinadigitaltimes.net/2016/06/five-years-sensitive-words-june-fourth/
armstrongeconomics.com/sovereign-debt-crisis/sovereign-debt-defaults-restructuring/

Okay I'll bite, I love these games. I never got my palms read but a friend and I talked about it whilst drunk once.

Tell me oh wise one, is this Wikipedia User a Jew or no? He created, edits, and lurks around the talk pages of topics on Ḥasids and yet, this is what he has to say about himself.

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A few thoughts:
Most notable anti-Sabbatian polemic who promoted an intersectarian 'witch hunt' against Sabbateans that remained a part of pious Orthodoxy in secret.
Inverse humor perhaps? Selfhating Jew?

Chittum and his competitors already have future predictions of what happens to the USA.

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Nobody cares Jared

Kill yourself redditnigger.

If the Wikipedia guy works to promote Jewish interests, it doesn't matter whether he is genetically or religiously jewish. But to take the future sci-fi theme back, suppose there is a future in which Wikipedia is exposed as a Jewish propaganda operation and put out of busines. In that future, people might have to learn how to look things up in actual paper books. Ta da! Future trends!

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At what point do I get my catgirl, though?

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A wall is not a solution but a ligation to a mortal wound inflicted to us by traitors and spies from within. The only way to save America is to make it unattractive to invaders and to defrock the traitors, then expelling them from our society.

If you think in economic terms, you will lose the war. It is like a general thinking if his soldiers carry more munitions, into battle his soldiers will win– when all it does is weigh them down and for it to be looted by his enemies. All growth is not good, in fact, most of it is cancerous growth; the kitschification and makework of the economy is nearly total.
The USA must become a nation of dutiful citizens rather than a country of entitled residents ran by foolish warriors and cowardly priests if it is to survive to prevent the republic from jeopardized by monied subterfuge. America has to declare itself a White nation with the right of self-determination; exactly like it's founding fathers did. A nation means a people bound by blood, it is not magic soil and social security numbers. Every White must declare their right to exist and that it is good; otherwise your silence in the face of adversity concedes that it is not.

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Excellent doubles are the crown to an excellent sentiment. Ron Paul suggested cutting off welfare to illegal aliens. That might be a starting point, but sadly I think Ron Paul lacks the ambition and ruthlessness to gain power in the USA.

guides.loc.gov/14th-amendment

so … are you saying that the Murricans should repeal the 14th Amendment?

Possibility 5: The USA has lower drug crime and human trafficking by holocausting every spic that crosses the border. This fixes all the other problems listed above.

William S. Lind, is that you?

Heil double doubles!

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CW2 is fairly obvious. But it will happen in Europe too.
Other than that, it's simple.
If Jews win, we're fusked. Bye bye whitey.
If we win, they are and we make babies.

lol

You raise an interesting possibility. What chain of events could connect the current real-world USA with your imagined USA? Currently the real USA seems to lack the political will to kill most troublemakers. Currently illegal aliens are treated very gently. What kind of transformation could convince Americans to stop treating illegal aliens nonviolently?

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Can you forecast any kind of trend?

If not, then the problem is not ZOG, the problem is that you can't forecast.

The future will be 3D printed.

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Things that happen
Economic up and downturns
Large countries grabbing lands in times of war
Money becomes digital
Degeneration of social norms

Could be if I could make it in any form of office that isn't surrounded by bureaucrats obsessed with pro life policy and bible thumping. Full on hellfire to anyone who crosses the border and anyone who does gets paid $100 a head, reinstate bounty collections.


Easy, reinstate martial law but only in heavily controlled spic run areas 50 miles near the border. You'd have to get enough sherriffs into office near these districts in order to carry out that policy anyways which could take years and that's only the worst part, the best part is taking the easiest route to stopping all other 4 problems and that would be outright letting vigilante citizens take up the law within their own hands. Deputize the citizens within those districts would act as their own police forces or a militarized police force without facing any penalties from the feds.

Interesting. The martial law would be carried out by the regular miltary, I assume, and the sheriffs would only be needed for backup. I don't know whether the sheriffs would cooperate with the military to carry out martial law.

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On a somewhat contrasting note, an user posted the following:


8ch.net/qresearch/res/5226186.html#q5226912

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So when's the GG2 supposed to be released?

As in "it will never happen," yeah. Are you retarded?

Get the fuck out, Q-LARPer.

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Cats and sushi combining into single life forms
Mass hysteria

When you get to Valhalla, probably.

I sometimes think about Richard Dawkin's original meaning for the word 'meme' as a sort of infectious idea, an 'idea as virus'. Maybe mental illness is contagious with enough prolonged exposure, and the internet is a greatest vector for spreading this mass-psychosis ever faced by humanity.

Certainly the people of 1950 would regard the world of 2019 as insane.

The FUTURE belongs to China and India you dumb fucks. China is currently colonizing Africa as Europeans close themselves off to the external world. China will divide and conquer when the US tries to split apart. This is just obvious. And finally, the HISTORICAL TREND is that the next 1000 years will belong to China and China alone. See you useless fantasy niggers on the other side.

占占占占人 占占占点 占占点占 占点占占 点占占占 灬占占占占

Yeah, I'm sure the Chinese government will have no problems maintaining a high-tech society when it is deathly afraid of its own people talking about its past massacres.

After all, thousand-year-reichs always last 1000 years, right? Just invest in kidney harvesting operations and you'll be able to retire young.

qz.com/698990/261-ways-to-refer-to-the-tiananmen-square-massacre-in-china/

chinadigitaltimes.net/2016/06/five-years-sensitive-words-june-fourth/

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Currently a huge problem is that too many humans have IQ scores below 85, which means they cannot be trained to do any modern tasks. If, however, biohacking could raise their intelligence above 85 IQ points, they might be trained for useful work and integrated into modern society.

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Watch Empire of Dust.

lol sounds pretty mild compared to what happens to you if you question to holocaust

In the case that Trump succeeds in sealing the USA's southern border by some combination of walls, fences, guards, dogs, etc., Possibility 1 is the only good scenario - the one we must strive for.

How does this go about and happening, i'm unsure.

Martial Service is the first organization I took over.

Good luck

...

We need more > 130IQ males which are only highly available in European and asian populations.

China has massive internal problems. Also get ready for right of return of nigs to chinkland.

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A massive population of the third world is already inside our borders. We're fucked without genociding them. If you think southern Europeans are poor performers due to genetic mixing get ready for some next level shitting in Burgerstand.

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Hey Celente, I like your videos.

This is how the leafs stopped the Fenian Raids IIRC. Drunken mick's vs. armed frog farmers.

You must be a bot.

I want to fuck a catgirl from outer space.

I wonder if anyone has thoughts or forecasts on what can or will happen on the digital front of politics and culture, because I have a hard time imagining an alternative to YouTube or Twitter ever really taking off despite the constant cleansing of wrongthink.

Obama's legacy, like the mere discussion of Israel, will be one of the key pushes of the overton window that will cause more MSM overreach. It will take some time, but it will no longer be verboten to bring up things like Democrats liking black votes but not the black community, or how the left has turned a blind eye to the Clintons (among others) for what seems like an eternity. History will not be kind to Barry Oseto.

In five to ten years from now, there will be too many class action lawsuits to suppress and memory hole against doctors and clinics that did irreversible damage to children with hormones and surgery. The public will have a hard time reconciling the existence of all those kids who transitioned back to the gender that reflects their sex, and the ones that couldn't hack it under Trump (especially the Female to Male trans pretend men).

It'll probably happen by accident, but a figurehead will emerge from the left and will be a head and shoulders above his peers due to not playing the Left's time honored tradition of drawing lines in the sand for us/them purposes. He'll be the first person to get an inner city activist and an environmental activist in the Bronx at the same time, point at the Cross Bronx Expressway and go 'that is why there's so much asthma here'. I know this sounds simple and basic but Left's default is eating their own. He'll either be bought out, co-opted, his movement infiltrated, but he'll probably never truly unite the left because of the social justice. His failures may inspire the left auditing itself, but I'm willing to write that off as conjecture and blind optimism.

I think the Rotten Library was taken down because it was a magnificent stepping stone for things I almost never found material on, let alone discussion. The NNDB is still intact, but one day you'll wake up and visit a site you used to for some time and just like that - it'll be gone. Pic related is a perfect example of what the RL had rather well written articles on.

I'm quoting another user here regarding China, mostly because China's belt and road initiative was a complete and utter failure and their economy can't continue on the way it has:

The CCP is only legitimate as long as they are able to maintain the illusion of real prosperity. It's only a matter of time before the consequences of all the misallocation of resources that happens under CCP jurisdiction starts to be felt by the majority of even the normie population. If you think that their shoddy shit tier "surveillance state" can actually prevent a Chink uprising, you have never been to China.

The Commie Scum are operating on borrowed time and their options for expanding credit are hitting a hard wall. Some of them at the top realize this which is why you see the government regressing to a tin pot dictatorship. They are preparing for economic collapse.

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America;
I believe that as the national election draws nearer, leftists, already frothing at the mouth to elect a democrat will engage in increasingly violent protests. This could lead to counter-protests from right leaning individuals. But I do not believe that it will develop into the vigorous street violence we saw in 2016/17. Instead, I expect ow level stochastic terrorism. I expect that right leaning individuals will be less inclined to engage in violent retaliation due to Trump being in office and their history of cowardice in the face of oppression.
Thus, the ball really is in the leftist's court.

Politically, it is far more difficult to predict. It all depends on how much faith the System has in Trump. If they have any doubts about his loyalties, expect the media oligarchs to pick a democratic candidate to lionize as they did with Barrack Obama. This course of events will lead to intensive racial street violence as the election approaches.
If the oligarchs do trust Trump, expect a more "relaxed" media campaign. This will lead to the democratic ticket being jammed with a dozen or so candidates with batshit crazy platforms and low name recognition. Since Trump has an uncanny ability to suck the air out of a room, he will likely win against whatever nobody is selected by the DNC.
This will lead to violent retaliation from leftists and the invaders. However, it will be over within a week or two and White people will mindlessly go back to work. Albeit with little smirks on their faces over their "victory"

A Trump defeat is far more interesting. It will likely involve massive voter fraud and may break the hearts of the dim witted White people who still think that their government looks out for them.
This shock coupled with a real sense of being cheated out of the illusion of progress and the increasingly repressive retaliations the new leftist regime will unleash upon the people they blame for their humiliation in 2016 will likely lead to an increase in right wing stochastic terrorism and even organization in opposition to the repressive policies of the new regime.

This is my prediction for America.

Eurofags might contribute their own realistic analysis of events in Europe. These will be as important, I think, as events in America. Events in Europe influence events in America more than most people realize.

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Perhaps the oligarchs are already pushing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Despite anything that comes out of her mouth, she's the media darling of the Left. The Presidential election will most likely go along your 'relaxed' campaign description, but its Congress and the Senate races that is difficult to ascertain or consider.

Machine Democrats lost seats in the primaries to ideologues like Cortez. At best, she's a managed and handled popular diversity hire with an excellent track record not not making any sense. At worst, she's Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton 30 yeas ago, and will run their playbook better than they ever did Like crashing that DK 64 stream raising money for trans youth to have an audience of her demograph pretty much on demand

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People still move stuff with ox drawn carts in China. They can barely manage their internal problems and corruption. I think you are grossly overestimating them. India is just simply incompetent and will likely implode in a fight with Pakistan or China at some point. They won't be a superpower until they can get at least 60% of their population to stop publicly shitting on the street. Almost every weird medical disorder mutant you see comes out of India or China. Realistically the future probably belongs to Israel just like the present.

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Setting

The year is 2021. Trump wins second term. Democrats control both houses of Congress. A coup is in place with heavy bipartisan support.

Catalyst:

Gun grab gone wrong. School shooting proven to be faked by the coup members.

Factions:

Political Left vs. Political Right

Alliances

Right

Farmers

Truckers

Police (loosely)

Military (lose and unspoken)

2A constitutionalists | Zig Forumsommandos

Left

Antifa

Black/Mexican gangs (loosely and unpredictable)

Paid mercenaries via political and entertainment elite money.

University students (not well armed but belligerents all the same)

Non-combatants

Right

Superhero Autists Intel
Meme squadrons

Left

SJW propagandists
Mainstream Media

Civilians

Non political non participants

Actions

Strategies

Right

Use geographically dense enemy concentrations (cities) to quickly detain enemy combatants in mass.
Use truckers/trucks and available military vehicles to surround cities and occupy beltways encompassing cities. Heavily manned and armed perimeter around cities
Cut the power. Shooting transformers throughout the city.
Set up surrender points for women and children. Sent to temporary guarded hotels and well taken care of.
Detained combatants are locked in jails.
2 month goal of total surrender.

Left

Guerrilla warfare
Mass media psychological campaign to attract defectors.
Occasional Large scale ambush to try to break through perimeter using university cannon fodder.
Appeal to foreign powers for aid via staged propaganda footage.

Battlefields

All major cities. Most significant being D.C. "Battle at the beltway."

Casualties

A relatively short war results in minimal deaths (under 1k) and moderate casualties. Most coming from the left.
OUTCOME

Full surrender by the left within 2 months due in part to infighting caused by lack of supplies and electricity.

Trump is honorably outed as president. A new temporary leader is determined based on wartime valor. Elections follow first in local municipalities then at the state level.
resulting politics

The federal government is stripped of power dramatically. Power is redirected to the states. The role of the federal government is limited to maintaining a strong military and secure borders, and seeing that the constitution is strictly upheld as the founders intended. All elections at the federal level are identity verified and campaign donations are outlawed. Elections for president (commander of the military) occur every 4 years.

Doubles noted.

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This, hopefully. I think your scenario plays out user, even if Trump loses especially due to mass voter fraud.

Futurology is an oxymoron. The future does not yet exist, therefore you't study it.

This. Soy Boys will fall in line.
.
Provided Northers Border sealed as well of course.

I love taunting this place. It’s the most intoxicatingly dishonest place I have ever found on the internet. I’ve never known anywhere people lie with the dedication they show here. The internet used to pressure people into pretending to be fake - that road lead here, where people act like history’s most worthless bigots!

This post’s password is fake.

Yes. I expect this to take place in Italy and Hungary, perhaps Poland and Russia.

You make a fair point.

Initially, I wanted Trump to move fast and break things. Later, I realized that Trump must be careful not to start any nuclear wars and I decided that my desire for chaos was less important than the priority of keeping the world ecology intact.


Yeah, so how do we get them? Smart people are encouraged to chase Ph.D.s and never breed. Smart women in particular waste their breeding years; smart men don't make enough money to afford children.


Nice trips. I don't think Africans will be as big a problem as Uighurs.


Currently, the USA does not seem to have the stomach for genocide, even in Afghanistan. The USA could have tried to exterminate the Afghans. They did not. Ergo, they are not likely to exterminate their next-door neighbors.

Thanks! I should have known that my distinctive writing style would reveal my true identity.


Damn, sir, you have written the best serious future forecasting in this thread.

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If Trump declassifies the dirt on McCabe, Comey, etc. I think Trump will get a lot of angry people on his side.


Maybe she's being pushed by right-wing oligarchs to make the Left look crazy.

No, goddamn it, I am not willing to accept that.

Let us hope.

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crises of confidence are most glaring armstrongeconomics.com/sovereign-debt-crisis/sovereign-debt-defaults-restructuring/