What is to be done?
Lula is probably going to jail, and Bolsonaro will lead the polls after it. And the military is ready to take over if the any of the Right's plans fail.
Discuss in english so other anons can join in
(pic is prob from Portugal but whatever)
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Not a brazilanon, although like the country. Honestly worried for you lot, it seems bolsonaro will either be a new Pinochet or will Mexicanise your country. Fucking travesty.
Does PSOL have anyone good to run? I heard the important Rio cllr died but is there anyone else?
Also what is this about this 2m strong ruralist movement (MST)? they seem pretty based.
Not brazilian, but tbh I doubt Bolsonaro will be elected. He's too much of a meme, and (I'd imagine at least) way too rightwing to be that popular.
PSOL has Boulos from MTST and little support outside of Rio's middle class. He seems to be good enough although he has no chance.
MST is with PT and Lula, as always.
The one in the wider left with some chance is Ciro Gomes, pretty sure he'll get more votes than Bolsonaro once the campaigns and debates start due to his style and knowledge.
The true problem is whether the election will happen or not, I'm betting at no elections.
dude brazil is a country with really high crime rates, and a consequence of that is the "common sense" here is incredibly proto-fash and punishment-obssessed, so the "middle" classes are really susceptable to his discourse.
hes made his hole shtick with a discourse like "a good criminal is a dead criminal", "im gonna bring death penalty", "im gonna lower the criminal majority".
on top of that brazil is incredibly politically illiterate, so people literally thing the problems of the country are like (state-)corruption and violent crime, and are totally blind to how economics determine their lives, the economic common sense here is "muh state = bad", a discourse which Bolsonaro also hops on.
anyway, i believe he was at 20%, and with Lula (who had 40+ %) out, he might have good chances.
PSOL is running with Boulos. Now Boulos himself is good but PSOL is pseudo-left trash. their 2014 candidate fucking cheered up for lava-jato and such.
That's fucking depressing.
I can see how he would be popular, but I doubt he'll win. It would be like if people voted for another Pinoshit in my country.
user, never doubt the ability of people to wish themselves into slavery for the sake of security.
Now it's official.
There no other name in the left besides Lula.
Brazil is a crazy place, its like Russia and Japan, but for politics.
Not only the middle class.
I think he already have surpass Lula in some states.
Idk, but i will not by surprise.
Fixed.
if youre talking about the rich, of course they would prefer him over anyone else who isnt PSDB. but if youre talking about the poor i highly doubt it. the poor in the northeast are still very up on the PT train for obvious reasons.
I used to live in an working class, neighborhood the they Dilma was impeached all i could hear was silence, while the middle classes on Avenida Paulista (our Wall Street) were cheering.
btw i hear constantly shit like "the military dictatorship were golden times, there was no MUH CORRUPTION, there wasnt crime", or whatever, dont you also?
fixed
As in the dictatorship in Chile? I mean obviously some people believe that, but keep in mind surveys have shown that less than 10% of the chilean population like Pinochet.
Idk, i consider miself poor and know people who will vote for him, but i dont live in the northeast.
Yeah, but i was talking about the "punitive discourse", and its pretty atractive the poor too and now without Lula…
Yeah, same thing on my neighborhood.
Yes, there were protests calling for a junta just a few days back.
i dont know which percentage of the population actually is favorable to a military dictatorship, what i do know is that almost 60% of people think "a good criminal is a dead criminal" - the main catchphrase of the protofash punishment-obsessed discourse.
dont we have acess to voting statistics by class? we could actually look up for it. what i remember was that if only the 5% richest were to vote, Bolsonaro would win with 80% of the votes. and that was some months ago
I was in Rio the day Dima was impeached (pure coincidence), it was kinda strange. Every open food-joint had it only telly. Sat down, had a pastel and drank fresh lemon juice as it happened. I remember it was raining it down like a mofo, the only day it did.
btw, do you think Dima, Silva and Temer actually did the shit they're accused of or nah?
Dilma wasn't even accused of anything relevant, it was literally openly made up so porky could push their reforms. Temer clearly is onto some Shady shit, he was caught getting like bags of money. Lula's case, like Dilma, is something minor blown up just to prevent him from winning the election, if he did its irrelevant.
youtube.com
you might understand this video, deputy who voted "yes" for Dilma's impeachment admits on live TV that she didn't commit any crime.
Oh I only know four words of Portuguese: dosh, por favor & obrigado (or 'brigade as I heard a lot in Rio). but thanks anyways.
thats strange, portuguese and spanish are really similar, i never took classes and i cant understand spanish quite well
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I'm a britbong: got taught French and German in school, currently studying Russian (see that makes it sound like I am some master linguist but I'm really not).
Yes, the research institutes usually publish studies detailing class, for actual votes on the elections you'll have to go by city districts(for instance during Rio's last elections Freixo got votes from the middle class while Crivella from the poor and slums).
ah, i thought it was you talking about "pinochet" and "my country".
No, other red flag user. sorry. :p
You are right, but the majority dont even know him, the punitive discourse and the support of the neo-pentecostal churchs can make him goo up in the pools when the campaing start.
yea but thats after the electionss happen. i'd like to know the class composition of bolsonaro's votes.
lula and dilma tainted socdem ideas so bad that it'll probably be dead in brazil for at least a generation if not more. At least another junta has the potential to go full ☭TANKIE☭
Step one is obvious: kill Petrobas. State owned oil companies are inherently corrupt due to the massive potential for abuse they lend themselves to, their existence creates a massive conflict of interest between a desire for private profit and a public desire to do good for citizens. That must die first for there to be any hope for Brazil's government to truly represent the people. Either split it up into smaller, provincial companies (that can compete against each other) like America did with Standard or just sell it to the highest bidder. Whatever happens, it just has to stop existing.
Step two is building a functional countrywide mass transit network (eg Amtrak) that can be a feasible alternative to driving.
telesurtv.net
Regardless of our ideological differences here, I think we can all agree that the Brazilian military need to have their heads caved in with blunt objects
As I said, the research institutes usually give out the vote intentions divided by class as well. You can search on it in their website(or wherever the fuck they actually publish the thing). Search for their name + presidente 2018.
I have a better idea: syndicalisation.
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Here, you dont need speak portuguese, just keep in mind that "salário mínimo" = minimum wage.
Okay he is basically a fascist not just in policy but in support base.
It's no different than any other spanish country. Mexico has the EXACT same problems despite bordering the US directly, including the part where the state oil company is used to fuel corruption. Ultimately in these countries it's the military who has total control because the military has the most guns and can quickly seize the means of (state) production - again the oil industry. It's the same way in Venezuela with Maduro. In those cases oil money can directly fuel the military regime indefinitely.
It has to go 100% with that idea, for example for an oil syndicate to work every stage of production (extraction, refining, transport and retail) has to be split apart into different organizations, which cannot share any central bureaucracy or administration. Again I use how America broke up Standard, for all the problems the current American oil industry has it's not a national monopoly and it's not free money for bureaucrats. This happens because each division has to compete against others, and there is no central oil management office.
In practice, it'd still have to be privatized even if it's privatized into a nonprofit public-benefit corporation run by a provincial workers' council instead of a for-profit corporation with investors.
yeah he's the candidate of the middle and upper classes just as i said. however im quite surprised by his support amongst the poor. probably cause of demagogy / punitive discourse, i dont know who poor people here fear more, the police of criminals…
I mean you have the nail on the head with Venezuela: it is at its fundamentally a military regime (whether you personally like it or not, I think it has done more good than bad). Chavez was a military man, the army is Chavista ect.
Well in that sense, it wouldn't be "privatisation", but "socialisation" or "syndicalisation", but that is literally semantics. Also one start would be separating extraction from distribution, seeing a state-owned petrol station was weird in brazil.
Thats what the brazilian left dont get it, they are fucking legalist, we need to arm the workers or bring the police or the military for our side.
Dont forget the neo-pentecostal churches, they are a force to be reckoned with.
Thinking of it user, we may be on to something here. Perhaps we should draft a manifesto/guideline for state oil company syndicalisation…
Fixed.
If the catholic church is anything in Brazil like it is in Mexico, then it'll be the government's #1 target because that's where actual communist proles will congregate and organize. I don't know much about rural Brazil though, but rural Mexico has always hated the central government and has tried rebelling against it for the past century and a half.
The Catholic church here cucked itself out of the poors due to stupid anticommunists measures by offing the base communities. Not to mention the top brass of it supporting every shitty conservative policy.
The Uni I study is the main host and promoter of the Forum da Liberdade which gather every shitty neoliberal scum.
Do you know how to make bombs?
Speaking of which, what is it with brazilian students and getting their bodies painted and collecting money?
Again I'm just thinking of how America broke up Standard. Each region of the company was split off and per antitrust law they had to sell their pipelines. The retail end opened up as large grocery chains like Costco and Safeway got the ability to sell gas. During this process the R&D/extraction arms of each company was largely sold off by their own choice due to foreign imports, with the majority of the remaining companies' operations being refining. This is where the Koch Bros enter since their business was able to grow without Standard's existence.
the priest my parents give all their money to does nothing but talk shit about americans and big business, it's really funny if it wasn't for the fact that I mail half my paycheck to them every month and all they do is give it to someone else
Don't mean to be rude, I am a christian too, but why do you give them half of your paycheck?
Probably, my local priest is leftist and the churches have a main role in the formation of PT, but here is a thing, the protestant churchs are growing really quick, there are already 30% of the population, and they are aggressively reactionary, this can make a difference for Bolsonaro.
Yeah the protestant churches growing in LA is an interesting theme: big thing in Venezuela, Panama, Costa Rica, why is that?
The entire reason I was born in America was so that my grandparents could have a retirement back home in Mexico. My mom left when I was 15 when she signed me onto a 3-year lease with my roommates, they only demand I mail back half of whatever I make. Since I'm a pilot, that's about $2,500/mo. They take the $100 they need for food and give the rest to their local church like everyone else does down there.
Ah right, didn't realise you were providing remittances. I imagine their church is pretty fucking decked out at this point, especially with the dollar to peso conversion rate.
Honestly there isent alot to be done, we have to accept that lula is going to jail and that PT is a dead party and try to make a post PT movement right now. Thats the best bet we have for th left in general.
If we are going to do something in the elections with candidates the best candidate for the left is Ciro Gomes. He is charismatic, a very good administrator, and probably has the best chance of being the candidate of the left in Brazil.
It's not really much, just the main church building with an attached courtyard, library, armory and the mansion where the priest lives and parks the church's ambulance van. They have me donate medicine and ammunition too.
Okay as an anglican, there is a lot of stuff we don't have.
Okay, nice building, some books, a vicarage… WAIT DID YOU SAY ARMORY?
WHAT THE ACTUAL FUCK? Like seriously? You have warrior-priests or something? That's great.
Does the catholic church handle a lot of healthcare in México? In the UK the only real equivalent is the St. John's Ambulance but they aren't attached to religious institutions per se.
Kek.
No. But I should, this year is kinda special since they invited Moro, some venezuelan "journalist" and extremely reactionary psychiatrist from the United Kingdom. I've thought about going with some sort of chemical attack, since it would probably easier to make.
They've been saying that for years and yet they still get more members and keep getting votes. They might diminish in size, but they are not dead nor will be in the near future(unless they commit suicide).
Got a name?
Radicalize your fucking priest
You are right, but we are in the middle of a red scare right now, the better thing is not use any leftist symbol and try to build a network of small of neighborhood associations and workers councils, try to rebuild our base.
Also, we need new ideas, or we are gonna end in the same way that PT and PTB.
That because of Lula.
Even if its true, they will not change, they will make the same mistakes and they still a reformist party, if we want something more radical we will need organize the masses.
Everything I've read by him is pretty fucking spooky and reactionary, extremely might have been an exaggeration. Still a reactionary.
Thing is we all know the party is basicly nothing without Lula with him arested they are gonna start a slow process of decay.
Never heard of him, but it sounds like someone heard about peter hitchens from a drunk man, then decided to ingest some derrida while at it.
He is right on social decay in the UK, but you are right it is riddled in spooks.
Trying to not use socialist symbols Will just kill the whole thing, if we try to build a movement witouth socialism them we will basicly become the democrats in the US.
user, do you know of our lord and saviour, Dr Paul Cockshott?
We also have to take the fact that its never been better to be a ML in Brazil them right now. The internet made the ML movement quite real now what we need to do is to make the movement come to the real world.
How will the current candidates deal with drug cartels and crime or just forget it?
Like the country is messed up
They still have other figures and, more importantly, and active base outside of universities. If anything, with Lula arrested they are forced to radicalize and gain some growth. They are not Brizola's PDT.
Just as a curiosity, what the fuck happened with Nova Cultura and why they stopped publishing books?
All of the right will just hand to whatever faction they favor, the current justice minister is the lawyer of PCC.
The only way to people achieve class consciousness it's in the fight and they will only fight if they already organized.
Cockshott have some ideas to achieve a revolution? For what i heard of him, its just talk about the economic system after the revolution.
In the internet, IRL the brazilian left is dominate by trotskyists.
so they support them? I didn't know about that
He and his "ScotSciFiSquad" have some good critiques of the current actions of Corbyn (and by extension western neo-democratic socialism), but yeah his stuff is mostly economic.
I doubt they are gonna radicalize tho they still are too much into the lap of the big landlords and burgeoi elements to be able to do anything like that.
About nova cultura aperently they lost their partnership with the people that used to publish their books so noe they are not able to publish them anymore.
Trots have been loosing alot of popularity and this is of course the best time to go and try to show people marxism leninism people just dont want to be associeated with sell out orgs like PT, PSOL, PCdoB and PSTU.
I heard PCR was trying to make a party, anyone know what happen? And about the red unit (unidade vermelha)?
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I walk with their people and aperently they are still trying to get signatures to get their new party going. But i dont know exactly how much sigs they still need.
PSOL got 438k before they were accepted and they were the only ones to ever do it.
Also what is up with you brazilians having a million fucking parties in your congress?
PCR is Unidade Popular pelo Socialismo(UP), they are somewhat close to getting the signatures they need. Unidade Vermelha dissolved sometime ago.
They don't want to be associated with politics and parties. Because they think it's dirty and corrupt.
I wish we actualy had a strong liberation theology movement around here. It honestly makes me realy sad couse this kind of stuff could actualy be prety popular, but becouse the catholic church is retarded around here liberation theology is treated like a heresy.
Brazil needs to be nuked along with all the disgusting communist plague that curses it.
The rule aperently changed and now its like 1 million to be accepted. I honestly dont know why we have so many parties lol, but its probably becouse we have such a big population.
Found the PragerU subscriber.
"socialism is when the government does things, the more things the government does the more socialister it is" - carl marks
It was strong in Brazil, it played a main role in resistance against the dictatorship, but not anymore, idk why.
"When oil prices go down and revenue dries up, this proves that my theories are wrong"
Yarl Maxs.
Thats a shame, its a badass name.
Funny thing, some of the people who dont want to get involved in politics when i was young, now are proto-fascists.
Talking about the youth in the federal universities. It's absolutley disgusting and all the huehues need to die.
I mean its quite obvious why. The leadership inside of the catholic church in Brazil basicly got fucked, majority of people that where leftist where banned and now the catholic church is prety bad in question of ideology. Not as bad the evangelicals couse those guys are basicly a lost couse to try anything in terms of leftism.
And they are growing and growing, if the left want to have a minimum chance in the elections or to make a revolution, we will have to talk with the evangelicals.
Dealing with evangels is pretty difficult, putting their reactionary social stances aside: they often lack the social obligations that catholic, anglican and other establishment churches have. They are often constructed in the bourgeois mindset so it may be very difficult to get through to them, and that is taking all social issues of the table to start with.
M8 my family is evangelical and ive been on evangelical churches those places are Basicly mass cults, u just need to see the church of silas malafaia the assembleia de Deus and the church of edir Macedo the igreja universal do reino de deus. Those places act like mass cults rather like a nornal church its imposible to talk to them in any meaningfull way that can be lead to progress its like if those places do brainwashing to their fallowers.
Thats why we need organize the people first, i agree that they have a bourgeois mindset, but this can be change if they join a union, a neighbourhood association or even a evangelical leftist organization, "workers for jesus" or something like that.
I know, some of my relatives are evangelicals.
it's called trote.
It's a tradition in unis that freshmen have to paint themselves and beg for money to pay for the welcoming parties. I'm pretty sure veterans just pocket the money and cheap out on the beer.
Protestant churches did grow alot in the last decade but they are falling in a trap by supporting the new government reforms. Since if living condittions get worse for the lower classes they won't be able to pay the tithe. The churches were only able to grow because the prosperity they promissed came to a considerable part of the poor population via PT reforms and because people had a little more money to spare and give the churches. I mean they were always here since the 50's why did they get so much steam recently? it's pretty obvious.
Where do you think the drugs come from? Favela drug cartels are a side business for drug lord porkies who sell coke and quality drugs to middle and upper class people. The scraps and bad quality shit end up in favelas and is mostly consumed by locals at really low prices. Porkies and their candidates don't give two shits about cartels.
No, it's for people when they want meat outside of slaughtering season. Weapons outside of shotguns are expensive.
There is no government healthcare outside large towns. So, yes.
iirc didn't dilma appoint lula to a cabinet position after he was accused of corruption. to me as an outsider that kind of sounds like a tacit admission, but am I wrong about that? Was it just a genuine belief that he would not get a fair trial?
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People are already mobilizing to defend lula, the judge gave him till tomorow to present himself to the feds. He will probably wait till the movements on the streets reach their peak, and will accept the sentence as he has alaways been compliant with state decisions. Anger and commotion will be widespread. He then will either show support for another candidate in the ellection or just thank everyone and calmly go to jail and probably be released somehow since the sentence is flimsy af.
Either way if his actions give a winning chance to any leftist candidate in the election (even himself if he somehow manages to do it) there will probably be no elections. Either by military intervention or a surprise parlamentarist reform.
bottom line is, the political scenario is complete chaos for all sides. The left is about to lose it's only strong figure the right has no one on lula level of popularity.
Apearantly she was alredy planning on doing it before.Regardless, there are no fair trials in this country, especially if you are a left wing politician being judged by a guy who is an imperialist drone.
I think its the exacty the opposite:
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números absolutos, de cerca de 13 milhões para 26 milhões;
Her support base in the congress was crumbling and Lula refused to get a position to shield himself from any sort of trial. She and others in the party were begging him to get into some ministry, as a compromise and to help her not get fucked he accepted thee Casa Civil, which acts like a negotiator between the President, the deputies and Senate(fun fact: she used to be in the same position for Lula, a ministry for the Casa Civil which is why Lula thought it was a good idea for her to run).
Lula has offers from multiple countries for political asylum, if he wanted to avoid brazilian justice he could just have done.
In case anyone cares he talks about it in his new book(it's a good book, I recommend reading).