The Growing Gulf Crisis

So an Emeriti tanker was blown-up in in the Gulf. The Yanks blame the Iranians, the Iranians blame the Israelis, and the Israelis blame the Iranians again.
With this, teh US is talking about a broad escalation in the region, as a response to Iran reneging on the Iran-Nuclear deal because the US itself reneged on this. In addition, the US wants to impose restrictions on Iran's missile program. Also Israel is bricking it about an Iranian nuclear program.
Meanwhile Europe is kinda just sitting on the sidelines absolutely furious that the Yanks have torn-up an agreement they signed to ensure this kind of this wouldn't happen.
haaretz.com/us-news/white-house-reviews-military-plans-against-iran-report-says-1.7239042

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Other urls found in this thread:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Akbar_Velayati
twitter.com/khamenei_ir
video.newyorker.com/watch/the-new-yorker-presents-the-agent-gibney
worldview.stratfor.com/article/geopolitics-iran-holding-center-mountain-fortress
german-foreign-policy.com/en/news/detail/7931/
german-foreign-policy.com/en/news/detail/7934/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution
marxists.org/reference/archive/stalin/works/1924/foundations-leninism/ch06.htm
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002
imdb.com/title/tt0116130/
apnews.com/a770998e42de4ed98257c91210b2fbbf?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP&utm_campaign=SocialFlow
twitter.com/SFWRedditVideos

Best go.y

Nah tbh we should see what Israel thinks about an impending geopolitical crisis involving it from the perspective of Electronic fucking Intifada.

no it wasn't
4 tankers, 2 Saudi and 2 Emeriti were "damaged" with no real evidence of it being an attack beyond the single image and footage release by the Saudis with the Americans promptly blaming "Iran or Iranian proxies"

Europe is a collection of worthless client states, when the mutts say jump, the Euros will jump

A war between the Arab gulf states and the axis of resistance would end with Saudi society completely collapsing, it's an incredibly fragile country. You take out the desalination plants along the coast and the entire Saudi population will die of thirst. Not to mention the US navy has no way of dealing with Iranian civilian boats full of explosives just ramming into all their ships.

fix'd

The sooner the reactionary governments of the Middle East collapse the better. Once the oil money runs out the workers of Saudi Arabia, for example, and particularly the immigrant ones who are basically slaves will rise up faster than the early Soviet Unions rate of industrialisation.

At this point of blatant crimes against humanity, i would publicly state that:
i hope most of the people in Saudi Arabia and Isreal die, SOON
The rest of us would be drastically better off and safer sans those two incredibly evil empires

This is one of the laziest manufactured pretenses for a war I've ever even heard of.

Just some allegedly damaged tankers allegedly connected (loosely) to Iran and some vague, unsubstantiated claims that Iran is planning on attacking US forces. That's it, that's all it's gonna take to start a war that will kill hundreds of thousands of people.

Though I will point out that the media hasn't completely started towing the party line yet (even fucking WaPo is critical) so maybe there's enough dissent by military planners to prevent this from going forward.

I hope you only mean Israel and Saudia arabia.

At least they're still bothering with an excuse, they won't be doing that 10-20 years from now when every western country is openly fascist.

Lamo, yes they are the only reactionary governments that repress communists in the Middle East.
Remember, stand with Sadr in Iraq against Turkey, Iran, and the US.

Iran may be anti imperialist but they are also no friends to socialism. Don’t forget that communist parties are banned there. They should be supported in their anti imperialist struggle but don’t try to whitewash their serious flaws. Eventually that regime will need to be replaced with a communist one.

Trump is firing Army Generals because they don't tow the line. Mattis was the guy who when Trump told him to basically nuke Syria said "Fire some Tomahawks".

Trump wants to make Posadism real.

Tbh Iran is turning into a borderline regional imperialist power:
THey literally told the Sadrist & Communist alliance (who are 100% ourguys) that they wouldn't allow them to govern. When you are trying to suppress foreign communist movements you are beyond the pale.

That dude isn't even in office you lying rat.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Akbar_Velayati

Khameni roasting the fuck out of the USA:
twitter.com/khamenei_ir
>Iranian nation’s definite option is resistance against U.S. and in this confrontation, U.S. will have to withdraw. This is not a military confrontation because no war is to happen. We don’t seek a war nor do they. They know a war wouldn’t be beneficial for them.
>There’re no doubt that U.S.’s animosity that started with the Revolution, has become very explicit now. The animosity existed before but it wasn’t so explicit. One should know that an enemy who makes an uproar by threatening, doesn’t have much real power.
>Look how enemy’s calculation system is messed up that their president says: there are protests against the establishment in Iran every Friday. Firstly, it’s not on Fridays, but on Saturdays. Secondly, it’s not in Tehran, but in Paris!

Wh’s ready for Vietnam 2.0? Wonder which country will become primitivist as a result?

First of all, nothing was destroyed, their was a drone attack.
Hopefully the yanks, that's me, just fucking glass the entire fucking region already so we can just move the fuck on. The rag heads aren't smart like the gooks. At least the gooks can do math and build things good. NUKE IRAN!!!!(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

how high do you need to be to think that the Sadrists are ourguys? other anons already pointed this out: the fact that they, and groups like them are fighting imperialism doesn't erase the fact that they are heavily spooked reactionaries that are going to turn their guns on anyone even vaguely left-wing, as soon as the lmperialists are dealt with. that isn't to say that there are no geniune socialist movements in the middle east, though.

buddy the Iraqi communist party is in the best position with this united front than it has been since the days of al-Karim Qasim. Let's not forget how invaluable in China the united front was against both the Beiyang Clique and the Japanese.

thanks

Even the Nazis had to stage a false flag to attack Poland.

Qasim killed commies. Chiang killed commies…

It wasn't that they had to do it, they did it because they speculated they could get away with it again. That UK and Franse will turn a blind eye again. If they knew for certain that war was gonna break out, they wouldn't have bothered.

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Fuck off

People don't care because you don't need justification for intervention anymore, libs are going on with it anyway. Remember all the effort the Bush administration went through to "prove" that Saddam had WMD? They even tortured a bunch of people for fake statements about it.

Now look at Venezuela. Libs are going on with it despite their hasn't been any proper justification. At least with WMD you could argue that this was somehow a threat to national security, but they are intervening in Venezuela because some election was allegedly irregular. Same with Libya or Syria. All they have to say is "IRAN BAD THEY KILL GAYS" and you'll have Seth Meyer pushing for regime change in his shitty late night show.

fuck all sites that dare to do this

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...

Sadr is literally allied with the Iraqi communist party and holds to anti-imperialism as an ideal. They are far better than Iran.

Qasim was pro-communist you dolt.

Neither is Hillary Clinton, if she declared "We will not let x leader run y place" it would mean something. Also:
He is still heavily involved with Iranian foreign affairs. Do some basic research.

Only Americans can invade a country and install a government that is wholeharditly opposed to them.

Tbf they didn't install Sadr, but yeah.

Now you are just scrambling. Shut the fuck up.

sociopathic reactionary deviation

Yeah tbf, former foreign ministers who advise heads of states have no influence in states whatsoever.
Man you're a bit dense aren'tya?

NO🙏
MORE🙏
JEWISH🙏
WARS🙏

video.newyorker.com/watch/the-new-yorker-presents-the-agent-gibney

Reminder than the US knew about the 9/11 attacks before they happened. If war with Iran is going to happen, they might do the same thing, even if it was just a proxy like Hezbollah. Another way this could blow up would be if the US continues making threatening moves the basically corner Iran into a response. Things like sanctions and military exercises/patrols along the border would be good examples.

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shut the fuck up you absolute moron. Hezbollah is not a US proxy, holy fuck. And Hezbollah would never carry out a 9/11 style attack, or any terrorist attack for that matter, let alone in the USA.

Poorly phrased, I should have said that they might do the same thing, even if it was a *Iranian* proxy like Hezbollah. I just mentioned them because they are a well known example, but there are also the Houthis in Yemen and another small Iranian backed group in Syria I believe.

Maybe using 9/11 wasn't a good example either, since the US would almost definitely take advantage of an attack on a military base or ship as a green light for war, even if it wasn't on US soil.

A war with Iran would be a fucking disaster for the United States and the whole world knows it except for John Bolton, who unfortunately is the only person who matters at the moment.

Like first of all, literally how would the Americans invade? A two pronged attack from Iraq and Afghanistan? An amphibious assault through the gulf? Give me a break. All those giant carriers and battleships are literally just a giant make work program for billionaires. They're good at looking scary and "projecting power" but they're basically just giant expensive targets for a good submarine or big enough volley of cheap anti-ship missiles, which just happen to both be things Iran is really good at. Its way harder to hit a bullet with a bullet than it is to just fire a bunch of bullets. Even if whatever Patriot-system manages to take out the first wave, which we're not even sure they could, could they take out the second wave? Third wave? Fifth wave? Tenth wave? Remember the IRA, "Today we were unlucky, but remember we only have to be lucky once. You will have to be lucky always." The Persian Gulf is too shallow, too narrow, and too packed full of civilian craft to be anything other than a massive shooting gallery for Iranian rockets. The American public may seem at least okay with war for the moment, but how would they react to 20,000 American sailors at the bottom of the sea within the first few days of combat?

Furthermore, all those gulf metropolises in Qatar and Saudi and the UAE rely on desalinization plants to even exist. Just a few rockets and suddenly the Americans are in charge of a Berlin airlift times a thousand of fresh water just to keep the people who matter alive. Every single migrant worker would likely die of dehydration, not that that matters to the Americans, though.

On top of that, we have no idea what kind of networks Iran and Hezbollah have in the United States and Europe. Al-Qaeda and other Sunni groups have time and time again proved to be absolute fucking idiots with no concept of patience or strategy. They're immature young men who think they're in Star Wars. They're hot-heads. The Shia have proven to be the exact opposite. There's a reason Israel fears Hezbollah more than anything else: they're effective. They humiliated the IDF in 2006 and have only grown stronger since. They're smart, patient, and really good at what they do. If a war ever broke out, we might be able to see what they're really capable of.

Not to mention the Strait of Hormuz, and all the economic fallout if Iran ever decides to lay down some naval mines.

sunken tanker, eh?

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Look up the Gulf of Tonkin incident if you seriously believe that the US will not try to push Iran or its proxies into a war through provocative acts. The US literally sent in a ship into North Vietnamese water territory to spy for the south, and then got shocked when they shot back. Eventually someone is going to take the bait, and then it's all down hill from there.

worldview.stratfor.com/article/geopolitics-iran-holding-center-mountain-fortress

This is a good article about how difficult a war with Iran would be geographically speaking.

You didn't even phrase it poorly. That guy is just a dipshit.

Mountains do not matter. That's not where the oil is. Americans are perfectly content to leave all the partisans in the mountains so long as the oil fields remain in the hands of Haliburton.

that is Big Shell jackass

wow i must have lost my marbles the big shell only happened because a dummy tanker sank just like this IRL™ Event®

say they manage to get to "where the oil is"… guess what, there are cities and mountains on the trade routes.

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Not really, while Iran is Russia-adjacent it is not a Russian pawn. It is more akin to Italy or Japan in the 1880s: neonatal regional powers looking for areas to influence in their backgardens.

You're the brainlet here

PURE IDENTITY POLITICS

Iran is a client state of Germany

Support Germany against American Imperialism.

yeah, it's revolutionary
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution
like, are you brain damaged?

overthrew the imperialists and replaced them with national bourgeoisie

Porky A replacing Porky B is not revolutionary.

Yeah it is.

Stalin:
"The revolutionary character of a national movement under the conditions of imperialist oppression does not necessarily presuppose the existence of proletarian elements in the movement, the existence of a revolutionary or a republican programme of the movement, the existence of a democratic basis of the movement. The struggle that the Emir of Afghanistan is waging for the independence of Afghanistan is objectively a revolutionary struggle, despite the monarchist views of the Emir and his associates, for it weakens, disintegrates and undermines imperialism; whereas the struggle waged by such "desperate" democrats and "Socialists," "revolutionaries" and republicans as, for example, Kerensky and Tsereteli, Renaudel and Scheidemann, Chernov and Dan, Henderson and Clynes, during the imperialist war was a reactionary struggle, for its results was the embellishment, the strengthening, the victory, of imperialism. For the same reasons, the struggle that the Egyptians merchants and bourgeois intellectuals are waging for the independence of Egypt is objectively a revolutionary struggle, despite the bourgeois origin and bourgeois title of the leaders of Egyptian national movement, despite the fact that they are opposed to socialism; whereas the struggle that the British "Labour" Government is waging to preserve Egypt's dependent position is for the same reason a reactionary struggle, despite the proletarian origin and the proletarian title of the members of the government, despite the fact that they are "for" socialism. There is no need to mention the national movement in other, larger, colonial and dependent countries, such as India and China, every step of which along the road to liberation, even if it runs counter to the demands of formal democracy, is a steam-hammer blow at imperialism, i.e., is undoubtedly a revolutionary step."
marxists.org/reference/archive/stalin/works/1924/foundations-leninism/ch06.htm

QUICK THE VENEZUELAN COUP DIDN'T WORK
NOW LET'S INVADE IRAN

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I want a persian gf right now!!!

The Islamic Revolution was the Islamic version of Mussolini’s March on Rome. It’s reactionary a counter-revollurion against liberalism, not a worker’s revolution. Reminder Communists were shot and hanged during the Islamic "Revolution".

Capitalism is Capitalism

Stalin was wrong, replacing Imperialism with the National Bourgieous isn’t revolutionary, it’s reformist at best.

Reported attacks at Syria from Israel
**Didn't they want to attack some iranian positions there, I think?"

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What could’ve been

With Pakistan firmly under IMF control USA will be using them against Iran …. Let's see how it ends.

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what if we fly the oil out

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Sounds like a good old USS Maine or Gulf of Tonkin scenario. Show me the motherfucking evidence.

Anyone want to place bets on the chance of a military intervention actually happening?

Right now I"m putting it at 15-20% or so. Bolton seems to be the only high level official in the Trump administration who actually wants this to happen, but he seems capable of steamrolling Trump into taking action (which, to be fair, isn't very difficult as Trump is a fucking gullible moron).

Bolton is the only person in the room who matters other than the al-Saud clan, they all think Iran can be knocked over in one fell swoop and they'll never have to deal with the big bad Shia menace again, it's going to happen. Don't think of the generals as brilliant guys who know how to protect their interests, they're not.

Why do they hate Shia btw?

The modern stuff pretty much goes back to Khomeini's anti-imperialist, revolutionary third way politics. His vision of Jihad was one where the Muslim world would break free from the influence of the US and USSR. The monarchies generally on the US side, corrupt arab socialist on the Soviet side. This isn't to say Khomeini didn't work with secularists, one of the first things he did was call a meeting of international anti-imperialist forces in Iran which included the ANC, Fatah, and I think the Korean Worker's Party. But the religious side of his rhetoric stirred serious revolutionary sentiment in the Shia minorities around the middle east where they had been abused and neglected for hundreds of years, especially in Saudi Arabia and Lebanon. Directly threatening Israeli and Saudi rule.

Can't wait for this to be real: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002

Unless it's being transported by massive cargo blimp or glider, both of which are huge vulnerable targets, you're gonna burn more energy in the flight than you are gonna get in the oil carried.

This is actually hilarious. Sore losers at their own game.

lol it's going to be a bloodbath

Idk why we aren't meme-ing war with Iran. Absolutely destroy the United States within a couple months.

the saudis and israelis will pay for more to die

That might be true for the Israelis, but Saudis are about to get royally fucked see

because that would make you a psychopath.

lol. so i bet on iranian pyrrhic victory

Honestly this is why I don’t think the invasion will happen, the US is just too reliant on the Saudis and this war would be the end of Saudi Arabia

I wish that General Van Riper was on our side.

Well at least he is long since retired and old.

That reminds me of a movie that actually came out a few years prior called Down Periscope where a submarine captain is given an ancient diesel submarine and pitted against a state-of-the-art nuclear hunter-killer in a war game that is intended to be a showcase of the new technological marvel. Captain Frasier and his merry men defeat the high-tech sub and the rest of the Navy that is hell-bent on having its foregone conclusion by using old school trickery.
imdb.com/title/tt0116130/

Mohammed Bin Salman is kind of an idiot, the first thing he did was try to win the Syrian Civil War by uniting the various terror groups that was thwarted by Russia, the second thing was to get involved in Yemen that led to them getting mauled by Iranian aligned forces, and then the third thing was to purge his relatives to consolidate his power probably pissing them all off. He has close relations with Jared Kushner who has access to Trump through Ivanka so who knows what the fuck will happen.

If MBS buys that building Jared's been trying to sell for years, he'll have the whole Trump clan under his thumb

Which building?

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