The Coming Banking Crisis

Some food for thought
bunkermundo.wordpress.com/2019/07/19/the-coming-banking-crisis/

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Other urls found in this thread:

marketwatch.com/story/us-industrial-production-slumps-in-second-quarter-2019-07-16
cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ceo-of-railroad-giant-csx-says-the-economy-is-the-most-puzzling-hes-seen-as-stock-plummets.html
youtu.be/BpaqC6hKsQo?t=327
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression
twitter.com/NSFWRedditImage

everyone and their mother knows this already. only boomers and their zoomer worshippers are in denial about it

One might say that the 2008 crises never really "officially" ended and this is the crashing of a wave that just began to crest back then.

The only crisis here is the one where I choose whether to invest in Citigroup or Bank of America. Such a tough crisis for me… hope I'll choose the best one.

literally just fear mongering there is no way to predict a crisis

Most people aren't talking about the fact that it will hit community banks the hardest.

Invest in BOFA

user, I…

no it definitely ended and markets are doing better than before 2008

i.e. Michael Roberts theory that we're in another "long depression"

yet we're not producing any more on an hourly basis than we weer doing the recession.

producing what?

Yeah, BOFA deez commodities

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Goods and services
marketwatch.com/story/us-industrial-production-slumps-in-second-quarter-2019-07-16

Also fun story. The head of one of the largest rail companies east of the Mississippi has no idea what's going on with the economy. Since rail is tied to the actual economy this seems notable.
cnbc.com/2019/07/17/ceo-of-railroad-giant-csx-says-the-economy-is-the-most-puzzling-hes-seen-as-stock-plummets.html

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Honestly boys. I T S H A P P E N I N G

>marketwatch.com/story/us-industrial-production-slumps-in-second-quarter-2019-07-16

But the same has been true since Reagan and we live better today than in 1980

Our economy isn't that too concerned with production anymore now that we've established post industrial society

No we don't. Name one way "we live better today" you stupid retard.

I'm not going to be and say we're worse off than 1980 (although we may be, in some respects more stressed out and anxious, the suicide rate is higher, for instance). But the main problem is that world capitalism would've collapsed in 2008 were it not for one neat trick:

the world's central banks printed trillions of dollars into the financial system to stabilize them.

they did not inject this money directly into the economy, however, which is why real production has flatlined since – instead the banks have invested the money in things that banks like, chiefly assets. so we have a new asset bubble in stocks that are divorced from the "real" economy and kept alive by massive amounts of debt compared to real earnings. but this is sustainable as long as interest rates don't rise too fast (which will make the cost of servicing the debt go up, bankrupting 20 percent of companies called "zombies" because they don't make enough to cover their debts) or unless there's a sudden downturn in profitability throughout the economy.

In summary: It's about to get bappin

Porky is richer than ever! That's the only person who counts.

What if the community banks don't buy the shitty loans?

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uuuummmmm, are you going to drink your own piss? where's the bottled water?

Drink the water from canned vegetables

Jews have all of our gold

Uh what the fuck? So you're a fed? KYS OP.

the gold standard is more memey than the neoliberal "just print more money" idea.

Don't be unprepared when the time comes.

how do I do that

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OP, what do you think of the empirical consequences of a materialization of systemic risk?
According to this video linked somewhere else ( youtu.be/BpaqC6hKsQo?t=327 ) it's pretty massive and chaotic

Instead of gold standard we should back our currency with antibiotics or drinking water so if society collapses our money is worth even more

Govt regulators dealt with a similair situation in 2008. Basically in order to keep money moving the govt backed all kinds of private loans and issued a lot of new money. The government isnt stupid. They'll do anything to keep markers operating, that's their purpose. The material effects you should actually pay attention to is how a crisis affects the division of labor.

standard of living is overwhelming better today than it was in 1980

So, what agency was it OP?

Office of Penis Inspectors

By what fucking measure? Why does he (or you) think we are in a depression? Words don't mean anything apparently.

Meh. Regular business cycle and most bad apples have already fallen from the tree in the great recession. Every communist needs to understand neoliberal economics or hes a fake economist.

literally just fear mongering there is no way to predict a crisis

The great recession only increased shady loans in places like China. The US is also rife with new zombie firms.

The bond market says otherwise

Yeah they definitely have no financial motivation for mass financial hysteria over a non existent crisis

A bond market inversion for longer than a quarter has never failed to predict a recession. People are putting their money on the line by buying up long term treasuries to make this happen.

if you followed bourgois economics in the slightest you see they love to cry about a crisis constantly then the off time they are right they pretend like they are economic wizards.

Global growth in real GDP, trade, investment and wage incomes are all below the previous pre-crisis rate up to 2007. Basically he thinks much of global growth since the 2008 crash has been in "fictitious" (non-productive) capital and largely speculative. The profitability of capital is too low, and the debt built-up before the Great Recession is too high and was "bailed out," i.e. never wiped away. All that dead capital is still there, and a big chunk of the economy is "zombified."

All of that means is that unless capitalism is overthrown (not likely), there is going to be an even more severe crash marked by widespread bankruptcies of these zombie firms, which will devalue capital enough to restore the rate of profit and would also wipe out much of the debt.

The closest parallel would be the late 19th century.

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en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression

Any commentary on the discourse isnt a comment on the economic facts.

economic fact: it is impossible to predict a crisis
anyone trying to is a fear monger

At any given moment there are real contingencies. Several paths are possible. One such path, which is quite obvious, is the crisis I outlined in that post. There is a chance we avoid for a couple more years it if wage growth remains stagnant, the trade war doesn't get any worse, and the Fed reduces rates.

No it isn't. The cycles in the economy are well known, and recessions and depressions happen in a predictable manner. Marx even remarked about the fixed capital turnover cycle, what is today called the "business cycle," and said that it is the basis for recurring crises (Capital Vol 2). Kondratiev later identified a third kind of hidden cycle, the long Kondratiev wave which is ~50 years long and has remained consistent for over two centuries so far. Cycles have serious predictive power.
It is only impossible to say the exact day/week/month that a recession will occur. However, it is possible to say with some assurance what year or two year period it will occur.

The standard of living is not better at least in the US. Workers purchasing power is way down. We work longer hours. We have less access to health care. The rates of suicide and drug overdoes are way up. You are completely delusional.

yes it is.

wrong. there are no "cycles"

series of crisis doesn't = a cycle. you can't predict them

reoccurring does not = a cycle
economic crisis is part of capitalism that does not mean they can be predicted.

this almost justifies itself. on such a long time frame any economic "issue" can be consider a crisis and fit Kondratiev's crackpot theory

these aren't cycles

saying "a crisis will happen in the future" is not an accurate prediction

bump

Probably until early 2020 or so(judging by yield curve inversions and other economic signals) but when shit hits the fan its gonna cripple real bad the banking system and its gonna be felt pretty quickly since they are pretty connected between eachother and they are just barely Standing right now
Also people who use Banks will feel it probably the quickest (Not looking forward to that)