Several factors that pollsters look at are predicting a "blue wave' in the fall elections, and some observers are calling 2018 the "year of the woman" given the number of female candidates running across the country. And it seems female voters are getting ready to strengthen the Democratic Party.
In CNN's June poll, half of voters said they'd vote for a Democratic candidate in the upcoming midterm elections, with 42% saying they'd vote for a Republican. This question is colloquially referred to as the generic ballot, and it's a useful measure of how the two parties will perform in an election.
There are other predictors that find a "blue wave" is coming as well.
First off, more people (especially women) are planning on voting for the Democratic candidate this year. This is somewhat expected since the opposing party holds the presidency and majorities in both chambers of Congress.
The amount of people saying they'll vote for the Democratic candidate has increased by 5 percentage points in total, by 1 percentage point among men and by 8 percentage points among women compared with near this time before the midterm elections in 2014. The men's vote for the Republican candidate also has increased, but only by 2 percentage points, while female support for the GOP has dropped by 10 percentage points.
This is also the highest the generic Democratic candidate has been in CNN polling at this point before a midterm in the past four midterm cycles. The 2006 election was widely considered a wave election for the Democrats, due to their substantial gains in Congress – they won majorities in the House and Senate – and major wins in gubernatorial races. Polling at this point in 2006 showed 44% of voters said they'd vote for the Democratic candidate and 36% planned to vote Republican – a 9-point advantage for the Democrats. In the most recent CNN poll, Democrats have an 8-point advantage.
It's clear Democratic support has grown since the most recent midterms, with those who said they'd vote for the generic Democratic candidate and those who said they'd vote for the generic Republican candidate basically tied in 2014.
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