Mexican Election Thread

Most of my family drove down there yesterday to go vote. Since I'm the anchor baby I stay here since my parents won't even get me a passport. They're all voting for AMLO but expect PRI to steal the election, which is why we all spend the latter month buying guns (CA's 10-day wait makes this a huge pain in the ass).

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AMLO is basically a leftist Trump. Think Sanders but much more openly critical of capitalism, America, and the war on drugs in general. For this reason there's a significant chance PRI will just say "no" to losing power like they did a century ago, which originally sparked the last Mexican civil war. The thing is if AMLO gets into power he will do things, like renationalizing industries currently owned by Americans, that will force Trump to kill NAFTA.

At least in my mind the question isn't so much if AMLO will win, it's if PRI will try to go down fighting or eject and use their American investments to immigrate to America. Since Mexico is already in a state of defacto martial law, trying to fight the people is a very real plausibility.

wait, why can't you cast your vote through mail or whatever? Here in Europe everybody does it, driving all the way down to Mexico just to vote is kind of a waste.

Mail in Mexico is handled by the Mexican post office which is run by the central Mexican government. Nobody would ever trust something like a ballot with it. They're voting in person so they (with the entire town) can watch who enters the room where votes are counted. Since elections officials don't wear masks like the military does, it is easy to find them if they try stealing the election.

I mean, Trump kinda wants to kill NAFTA anyways, doesn't he? But you're right in the sense that this could give him a more "valid" (in the eyes of liberals and conservatives) reason to shut it down.

I don't think you get it. If AMLO renationalizes parts of the Mexican economy that were privatized into Americans per NAFTA's rules, then he is nullifying NAFTA until Trump steps in and, due to NAFTA no longer being in effect, formally destroys it with tariffs/sanctions/etc.

This is why PRI might fight because they really don't want to see their cash machine be destroyed.

That shouldn't prevent you from casting your vote just in case. I mean, it doesn't matter much either way, but it's a bit absurd to just assume they throw every single mailed vote in the trash.

Trump would like to renegotiate NAFTA to fuck over Mexico even more, not kill it.

why throw them out when they can just modify them onto new PRI ballots?

The NAFTA renegotiation is largely just a way for Canadian, American and Mexican (PRI) businesses to collude and lock the rest of the world out of north america. The only thing America demands is that Mexico sell them the state oil company, which PRI has been reluctantly to do because their monopoly on fuel in Mexico is incredibly profitable. But now even that is unstable with AMLO so NAFTA 2 will likely choke and die in Pena's lame duck term the same way the TPP (aka WTO 2) died during Obama's lame duck term.