Syrian War / R**java thread

I assume you're referring to roHHHHava which I never mentioned in my post.

nothing is set in stone or proven yet.

most of the opposition is online, which tends to suggest its either contrarian or controlled opposition.

you'll find a lot of "online" opposition to roj*va separatism among the Syrian people.

R*java is not a separatist entity
It's stated goal is for a federalisation of the Syrian Republic

And why is that OK? How's that not separatist? Look at the KRG. Syria must be a united, sovereign government.

The KRG is a seperate political and social entity from R*ojava / Federation of North Syria
While R*java is pushing for federalism for all Peoples within Syria the KRG is simply hoping to succede from Iraq

At this point I tend to think opposition to one big US military base in Syria at this point is just COINTELPRO.

Exhibit A.

>LELELELEL THE PEOPLE WHO ARE OPPOSED TO THE SEPARATIST ENCLAVE THAT STILL HAS US TROOPS STATIONED IN IT ARE COINTELPRO

R**hava is not socialist or communist. Barely social democratic for that matter. It is literally just a few guys with guns stating at one place and temporarily governing it. Even if Turkey pulls out, it is likely that the group will quickly dissolve, and willingly surrender control to the government.

holy fucking shit

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I've already explained as to why the R*ojava is not a separatist entity as federalism and Sepratism are different concepts (Using your logic then every SSR in the USSR for its entire existence was "separatist")
And the US troop presence was only accepted begrudgingly to defend against the Turks and IS and R*Java has always stated that US withdrawl from the north of Syria is optimal

They have already stated their demands for federalism and despite obviously not being a purely Marxist form of socialist organisation they are attempting to move their economy towards a socialist model built for the local material conditions

Why? Like why? What if it is a federal country? Or a strange mixture such as Yugoslavia? Or a confederate one similar to Switzerland?

For clarification, it is no longer the "Democratic Federation of Northern Syria" but now the "Autonomous Administration of North and East of Syria."
Rojavâ just refers to the Kurdish areas.
Important development as now the goal isn't the federalization of Syria but rather the legal recognition of the current borders within the Syrian constitution
tl;dr part of the reconciliation talks with Damascus

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You can relabel things all you want. Roj*va is not a legitimate political entity, it is holding Syrian people and resources hostage.

If you're not a leftist, why are you on this board? How can any revolutionary party or group ever seize the means of production and establish a DotP without 'holding ____ people and resources hostage'?

Interesting, where are you finding the news about this stuff?

Citation needed
How do you hold resources hostage exactly?
Those resources were within the proposed territory of Northern Syria to begin with
So?
The USSR literally wasn't a "Legitamate political entity" until the 1930s for Christ sake

go back to Zig Forums

Ironic that you’d say that because we’ve been saying that about the R0java-US alliance for years.

how is he not a leftist? Opposing US imperialism aka R*java is a leftist position

If choosing between an entity pursuing socialist development and a state protecting its sovereignty, a socialist supports the former.

But to be honest. Only retards conceive of the world in a 'this or that' kinda way.

How is R0java a tool of US imperialism? The US is withdrawing and they are no cooperating directly with the SAA against NATO, which is exactly what R0java supporters said would happen from the start.

Except literally wordfilter one big US military base in Syria proves otherwise.

Also who the fuck are you? Are you the grand socialist arbiter who decides what all socialists should think?

The wordfilter doesn't prove anything besides BO being an autistic faggot.

Wow R0javafags BTFO by FACTS and LOGIC.

What the fuck is this supposed to mean anyway you absolute faggot
Why are there so many retards here still crying about R0java even while it works together with both Assad and the Russians?
Better yet, why then, none of you morons, cry how Assad is an American puppet trying to depose of Assad since he works with R0java?

Honestly things might get pretty live if the Turks do end-up fighting the SAA: could escalate into a proper war.

you're literally retarded. one big US military base in Syria doesn't stop being one big US military base in Syria the instant orange man announces a (likely conniving) future withdrawal.

That's why. It's filtered dummy.

Turks are going to lose badly, really badly. They just purged their officer core and they're headed into territory full of well disciplined fighters between the SAA, Hezbollah, and all the PKK affiliates. The SAA is a terrifying intelligence force as well, they've been keeping rebels at each other's throats since the start of the war. There isn't a single reliable Sunni proxy you can really use.

The SAA is way more impressive than it was 5 years ago but they can't even take down the failed English and French rappers holed up in Idlib.

Turkey can't even maintain a modicum of control in Afrin though, it'll be a battle of who's more incompetent.

SAA doesn't have to put the homies mobbin in Idlib down, the NLF and Tahrir al-Sham are killing each other. Assad's smart enough to just let them shoot it out and shell both of them for as long as possible before committing to a full siege assault.

Turks and US are allies. I know very little about middle east, but you can't make me believe that turks would ever try to attack that base. They are just there, waiting for command to explain kurdish head of state advantages of liberal democracy.

The Turks invaded Afrin months ago. Alliances don't work like they do in video games.

Lol that was years ago and barely %5 of the army took part and the officers in charge of the coup were failures as they couldn't pull it off.

no that was the big S

The purge of the TSK has been ongoing for about 6 years now, it started off with the Kemalist elements with the Ergenekon plot, then there was the Gulenist element with the coup (ironically they conscripted some of the Kemalist elements back in under effectively military house arrest). The Turkish officer corps is shot tae shit though, and there are reports of pilots being taken out of cells in the morning, sent up into the air to conduct a strike, and going back in the evening: imagine what that does to morale.

Except the US troops have begun withdrawing, and SAA troops are already inside R0java jointly guarding the border. Is the SAA imperialist too? The straw grasping here is pathetic. The Y.PG were never imperialist puppets, they used the US as meat shields for a while, that’s it.

Twitter mostly. Lurk long enough and you find people on the ground who know their stuff

U.S. troops haven't begun withdrawing. Everything has been politics, in fact all that has changed was the addition of the French again. Cooperation with the SAA is starting up again, like back in 2016, but it's also due to the reconciliation talks that have been going on.

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whenever i think maybe i shouldnt be so harsh on one big US military base in Syria fags someone like you comes along just acting as if they didn't massively fuck up the whole time while grasping straws like a supposed withdrawal, which was simply announced and is far from put into action, and putting up a strawman for what we've been saying about them and the syrian situation as a whole
seriously you just reminded me why you fags can't be allowed to live

Spoken by someone who is knee-deep in socialist movements. Surely, your hard-line no-quarter-given leftism is a product of hours spent organising in the community, and agitating and educating workers.

Go fuck yourself. :)

And who the fuck are *you*? hahahaha

They literally are though and have been for months

any people you would recommend following?

Make sure not to cut yourself on your own edge there mate
also you must be over 18 to use this sight, no edgy 15 year olds allowed

Wladimir is a great source for Syrian news and the middle East in general: twitter.com/vvanwilgenburg?s=09
Gargari makes maps, posts about the stupid Arab tribal dynamics, and is one of the few that does report on violations that occur within the region: twitter.com/Gargaristan?s=09
Internationalist Commune of Rojavâ are a bunch of anarchists turned farmers: twitter.com/CommuneInt?s=09

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Make an actual argument any time fag. Clearly people are taking the withdrawal plan seriously since various neocons in Tumps government have thrown a fit and resigned, while all the libs have begun shrieking about it. The Turks also can’t begin their operation as long as the US is there in a significant capacity, meaning that they won’t stay there for much longer. In the meantime the PYD is mending their relationship with Assad and improving the prospect of a united front between the two, and you’re still fuming that the Kurds accepted air support for some reason.

...

I believe that Turkish troops are massing on the border, and there’s no way they will attack as long as the US is there. If an attack is imminent then so is US withdrawal.

Well it depends where they attack, but since Turkey's first target is Manbij there is literally a line of US troops along a Euphrates tributary that is meant to be keeping the two apart: I have seen no evidence of their withdrawal from the last video showing them patrolling it. It's why the SAA troops in the Manbij region went to Al-Armiah to the west of Manbij city because it's in the path of T-FSA troops reaching Manbij from the west.
If the Turks were to strike east of the Euphrates, it would require demolition of the border wall which would be easy to detect (when the Turks inserted their rebels into Jarabulus everyone and their nan knew it was going to happen about 3 weeks before hand: Daesh still got rekt tho).
But yeah, even the "US withdrawal" is meant to take two years right now, the Turks stopping-and-starting has just given them time to fortify. The recent joint campaign between the SAA & УPG near the Iraqi border against the last conventional Daesh territories is a sign that they want to wrap things up there to free troops up for the north. Ankara has kinda botched this ngl. They'll still make good gains when they do attack though.

While I would like to believe that NATO is in such fragile position, I can't believe it. All I can find in media is that kurds and turks are killing each other while americans are giving weapons to kurds and negotiating with turks. There couldn't have been any significant loses on american side.

Considering Ankara has been drifting towards Moscow for months now that fringe of NATO is tearing at the seams…

The US didn't station any troops in Afrin as far as I recall. They've stationed troops in Manbij to stop the Turks from continuing Euphrates Shield. There's no way they would actually attack US troops, that would be political suicide, though it hasn't stopped them from threatening to do so.
Also:
Pretty much sums up all the "muh US bases" faggots here. It speaks volumes that there was barely any news discussion about Syria after BO began his banning spree - anyone who actually cared enough to follow what was going on got banned.

The de-facto agreement regarding the S.D.F. was the U.S. patrols the east, Russians protected Afrin. They had bases and patrols like the burgers in Manbij but Putin traded Afrin for Idlib offensive last year. The Russian troops stayed in Afrin up until the last second, where the relocated to the Shebah region and allowed the Turks entry. That's what that purple "SAA/Y.P.G." area is near Afrin on maps.
People forget that S.D.F-Russia relations used to be great up until Hasakah, pics are of Russian soldiers in Afrin celebrating a Newroz festival with said American imperialists.

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Trump gives about four months for Syria troop pull-out: NYT

US president says 'we're slowly sending our troops back home' after initially ordering a rapid withdrawal.

US President Donald Trump has agreed to allow about four months for the US military to pull its troops out of Syria, the New York Times reported on Monday, citing administration officials.

The report came after Trump tweeted that "we're slowly sending our troops back home", backtracking on his initial order for a rapid withdrawal.

Trump unexpectedly announced the troop pull-out on December 19, and US media, citing military officials, reported the withdrawal would take place within 30 days.

But on Monday, the New York Times reported that Trump privately told Paul J LaCamera, the commander of US forces in Iraq and Syria, last week that he could have several months to pull the some 2,000 US troops out.

Military officials declined the New York Times's request to specify when the departure will take place. The newspaper noted the security concerns and that officials are aware that Trump may change his mind at any time.

On Sunday, US Senator Lindsey Graham said Trump had agreed to slow down the timetable. Graham told reporters that he was "going to ask [Trump] to sit down with his generals and reconsider how to do this".

Trump initially said the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) had been defeated, but he has somewhat backtracked on that claim, saying now that ISIL is "mostly gone".

aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/trump-months-syria-troop-pull-nyt-190101143234181.html

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Turks eternally BTFO'ed they wanted to start the operation like 2 weeks ago. Now they've got to wait 4 months, hahaha.

Oh yeah, I'd totally forgotten about that. Thanks.

...

What exactly are they plundering? R0java is selling oil to Iran and Assad ffs.

America is in Syria for benevolent reasons?

They’re there because they were hoping to establish a lasting presence, but your mistake is in thinking that the Kurds weren’t using America for their own ends. People like you seem to think that real life is like a Hearts or Iron game, where smaller countries are all “puppets” and can’t play strong countries to their own advantage. The fact is that the Americans have been duped by the Kurds, not the other way around.

Then how comes people are scared of America leaving if America doesn't have overwhelming leverage on the kurds?

They are obviously worried about the Turks attacking, which is why they are now forming an alliance with the SAA. That being said, this so called “overwhelming leverage” hasn’t really manifested itself in any meaningful way. The Kurds have been working with America’s enemies (Assad, Russia, Hezbollah) and fighting its allies (Turkey). They’ve been selling oil to Iran and the Syrian government, despite constant bitching from the US. They’ve refused to patch up their relationship with the KRG, or break relations with the PKK. In fact there doesn’t seem to be any evidence that they gave a fuck what the US wanted in the region. They clearly have their own agenda which conflicts with America’s and have no problems pursuing it and telling the US to eat a dick.

why are the mods so obsessed with ensuring nobody on Zig Forums supports one big US military base in Syria? let's accept they're imperialist, just a US puppet state, still who cares? oh no, the pasty white bookchinites are LARPing about considering a day-trip to Kurdistan, mom's gonna freak!

i'm more serious than i sound: what's the justification for taking one big US military base in Syria, and leftypol so seriously? as much as i view GMIL with distaste, it comes across like pic related. even if you go "oh, but two people actually did go" it's still not like they're making a materially useful contribution to imperialism. you'd get much more out of letting the userbase tear them to shreds with laughter than by banning on sight.

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just noticed this thread is a few days old
perhaps 'are' should be 'were'

Never understood it either. BO seems to have a rage-boner towards both R.ojava and soldiers in general. I guess it could go under the "do not support imperialism or you'll be ban"-rule, but they've often been incredibly liberal in dishing out bans for posts who barely even seem to touch upon anything close to "support for imperialism". I've chalked it up to BO having a personal grudge against soldiers and kurds.
Seems to have improved now though, maybe due to the SAA-R.ojava alliance(?)

Would be nice if BO or a vol could explain the policy behind this (or the past policy, if it's finally over)

There’s one mod in particular that’s especially ban happy, since I’ve caught some utterly ridiculous bans only to have them overturned within hours. So there are at least a few sane mods left.

The "no imperialism" rule was added due to BO's grudge against leSDF, from what I recall. It has always been selectively enforced, and often on flimsy grounds.

Deal with Syria regime inevitable: Kurdish commander
straitstimes.com/world/middle-east/deal-with-syria-regime-inevitable-kurdish-commander
Sort of a repeat of the things we've been speculating about, but the commander (Redur Khalil) does mention the possibility of leSDF being integrated into the SAA.

Also, some maps of leSDF mopping up IS
twitter.com/Gargaristan/status/1081578332284768256

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Bodycam footage of IS commander getting shot and left for dead in Hajin, epic style.
liveleak.com/view?t=uwGAa_1544706819

Not even defending the US troop presence but what exactly are they "Plundering" exactly?

Rojavâ is not selling oil to Iran; all crude oil is currently used for local consumption. The PUK in Iraq are selling oil to Iran. Trump got them and the P.Y.D. confused.

One of the proposals back in the September talks was that the Syrian Democratic Forces be incorporated as an autonomous, but legitimate, part if the SAA. And that service in the S.D.F. would suffice for one's mandatory service in the military. I believe not only is it still on the table, but it's the most likely outcome.

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Here's an Op-Ed from the perspective of our favourite imperialist rogue state:
securitystudies.org/the-kurdish-demands-in-syria/
Aside from a lot of bullshit and some ideas for how the US may maintain its grip on Syria (which can basically be summed up as "establish a no-fly-zone and stop Turkey somehow - also turn leSDF into an oil state"), there is this interesting section:
Of course it's all about "muh barrel bombs" and "muh chemical weapons", but in the context of what's happening now I think the subtext is pretty clear.

BREAKING: No Syria withdrawal without commitment from Turkey, Bolton says
nbcnews.com/news/mideast/no-syria-withdrawal-without-commitment-turkey-bolton-says-n955181

That's it, Turkeys gonna leave NATO…

You mean

Fucking hell, it's the fucking neocons who sway Trump again.

GET THE HELL OF SYRIA AND AFGHANISTAN, TRUMP.

FUCK THE WALL, DEPLOY TROOP AT THE BORDER, THE BORDER.

Mate the Turks aren't going to not intervene to stop "LE EBUL PKK", if Erdogan backs down the Grey Wolve elements of the Turkish state will withdrawal support for him then things will go down the shitter. Like this war is meant to distract from the economic issues, if it isn't going to happen Erdogan is fucked.

...

If the Turks leave NATO, they can't intervene without risking triggering WW3. NATO also needs the turks against Russia. I think it'll go like this:
1. Turks bite the bullet, get something else in return inb4 Gulen gets extradited
2. U.S. stays indefinitely to "protect their allies"
3. Everybody will be disappointed and pissed off but the show goes on as long as the neocons pull the shots

The US will most likely back down before Turkey will, they're too strategically important to risk them aligning towards Russia. Even if they promise not to invade, they'll break it the moment the US leaves Syria. Even if all this breaks down and the US decides to stay, I highly doubt it will stop negotiations between leSDF and Assad, and once that deal goes through the US influence over Syria will be virtually non-existent.

You're right NATO needs Turkey for Nukes, and while Ankara has been shifting towards Moscow nothing would piss Moscow off more than the Turks invading Northern Syria to support anti-Assadist elements.
Also the thing is that it cannot go on indefinitely because sooner or later Assad is gonna want Idlib back: which will draw the ire of the Turks. There are literally two fronts left in the Syrian civil war and they both involve the Turks fighting Damascus rn.

If Bolton wants them around he probs wants to use them to attack Iran (which is fucking funny but w/e). We are in a situation where different factions of US foreign politics are fighting each other because they can't choose between isolationism, atlanticism, or anti-Iranicism.
But yeah, the US doesn't want to back-down to Turkey because they want to use stuff in Syria to attack Iran (which again is fucking stupid but whatever).

The YРG just captured two Americans, two Pakistanis, and an Irishman who were fighting for ISIS in DeZ.
twitter.com/DefenseUnits/status/1081846745573806080

Did they remove the word filter? Hold on:
one big US military base in Syria
one big US military base in Syria
PYD
YPJ

Welp

Если ты знаешь, я могу не объяснять.

Right now Turkey is begging for some "buffer zone" within the former D.F.N.S. but the burgers want a promise that the S.D.F. won't be attacked. This can be seen by the Turk's rhetoric going from "DESTROY THE PKK" to "we love our Kurdish brothers, just not the 'Y.P.G.'" Thanks to HTS storming Idlib, many TFSA are transferring to that fight, which honestly is the only reason they didn't implode on their Turk masters.

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So a lot of shit has been going down in Idlib for the past few weeks:
HTS seizes key Aleppo province town as group continues to assert itself over rebel-held northwest
TLDR: Rebels are infighting. The strongest faction, HTS, an Al-Qaeda affiliate and coalition of Salafist militant groups (including the former Al Nusra Front), have been beating the crap out of the Turkish-backed opposition and taken a bunch of territory. Many opposition forces have retreated to Idlib, and the National Front for Liberation - a coalition of Turkish-backed opposition groups - are planning a counter-attack, but it's looking pretty grim for them.